House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Third Quarter 2025

2025-12-03T11:16:53-06:00

House prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2025, though the pace of growth slowed as elevated mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and persistent economic uncertainty weighed on consumer demand. After several years of rapid growth, Hawaii and 38 metro areas saw house price declines this quarter, highlighting significant regional variations in market conditions. Nationally, according to the quarterly all-transactions House Price Index (HPI) released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), U.S. house prices rose 3.3% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. This represents the slowest year-over-year price appreciation since 2013, indicating a cooling in the housing market following a decade of robust price growth. The FHFA’s all-transactions HPI tracks average price changes based on repeat sales and refinancings of the same single-family properties. It offers insights not only at the national level but also across states and metropolitan areas. Between the third quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2025, 48 states and the District of Columbia experienced positive year-over-year (YoY) house price appreciation, with gains ranging from 0.6% to 6.8%. Hawaii was the only state to record a decline, while Florida posted no growth. New York led all states with a 6.8% gain, followed by Connecticut with a 6.5% gain and Illinois with a 6.2% gain. On the opposite end, Colorado posted the lowest house price appreciation at 0.6%. Notably, out of all 50 states and the District of Columbia, 29 states exceeded the national YoY growth rate of 3.3%. However, on a quarterly basis, home price appreciation decelerated in 45 states compared to the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a broad-based deceleration in the housing market. House price growth also varied widely across U.S. metro areas, ranging from a 7.8% decline to a 16.0% increase year-over-year. Punta Gorda, FL recorded the steepest drop, while Farmington, NM posted the strongest gains over the previous four quarters. In the third quarter of 2025, 34 metro areas, in reddish color on the map above, experienced negative house price growth, while 351 metro areas posted increases. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, house prices have surged nationally. Between the first quarter of 2020 and the third quarter of 2025, house prices climbed 54.9% nationwide, with more than half of metro areas exceeding this rate. However, 226 metro areas have seen varying degrees of decline from their post-COVID peaks, ranging from -0.1% to -12.7%. The map below presents the top ten and bottom ten markets for house price appreciation over the past five years. Among all the metro areas, house price appreciation ranged from 18.3% to 88.4%. Knoxville, TN topped the list with the highest house price appreciation, while Odessa, TX posted the lowest appreciation, ending Lake Charles, LA’s five-quarter run at the bottom.

House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Third Quarter 20252025-12-03T11:16:53-06:00

Employment Loss and Post-COVID Recovery Across U.S. Metro Areas

2025-11-12T08:15:10-06:00

In April 2020, total payroll employment in the United States fell by an unprecedented 20.5 million, following a loss of 1.4 million in March, as the COVID-19 pandemic brought the economy to a sudden halt. The unemployment rate surged by 10.4 percentage points to 14.8% in April. It was the highest rate effectively since the Great Depression. Tracking the labor market impact is critical for understanding the follow-on effect on home building activity during the last five years. As people stayed at home and businesses shut down under government directives, millions of Americans lost their jobs. Initial unemployment insurance claims soared to 2.9 million during the week of March 21, 2020. For the following 19 consecutive weeks, more than one million Americans filed for unemployment each week, totaling roughly 50.9 million claims over just five months. While the national labor market suffered an unprecedented collapse in both speed and depth, the effects varied significantly across U.S. metro areas. Local economies experience dramatically different outcomes depending on their industrial composition, the feasibility of remote work, and the strictness of local public health restrictions. A map of metro areas across the United States reveals striking variations in employment losses from February 2020 to the pandemic’s employment trough. Nonfarm employment payrolls declined by anywhere from 5% to 35% across 393 metro areas. Kahului-Wailuku, Hawaii, experienced the steepest job losses, with employment plummeting by 35%. This metro area’s deep dependence on tourism and hospitality, particularly in accommodation and food services, left it vulnerable to travel restrictions and widespread shutdown. Similarly, Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey, as a prime tourism destination, was devastated by pandemic-related closures. By May 2020, its total employment dropped 34% from the February 2020 level. Some metro areas experienced major setbacks tied to their dominant industries. In Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana, as the heart of the U.S. RV manufacturing industry, employment plunged 34% as production ground to a halt. At the other end of the spectrum, Logan, UT-ID, recorded the mildest downturn, with a relatively modest 5% employment drop, reflecting a more resilient local economy. In sheer numbers, New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York-New Jersey saw the largest employment losses in the nation, shedding nearly 2 million jobs, or about 20% of its pre-pandemic workforce. Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, California, followed closely, losing 1.1 million jobs, about 17% of its February 2020 level. Despite the historic scale of these losses, the U.S. labor market rebounded faster than many anticipated. Within just 26 months, overall employment had fully recovered, surpassing its February 2020 level to reach 152.4 million by June 2022. Yet, as with the initial losses, the recovery varied widely across metro areas. By August 2025, 93 of the 393 metro areas had still not regained their pre-pandemic employment levels. Lake Charles, Louisiana, remains the slowest to recover, with employment at only 87% of its February 2020 level. The region’s setbacks have been compounded by multiple disasters—COVID-19, followed by Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020—that disrupted both infrastructure and labor markets. Kankakee, Illinois (92% recovered), and Weirton–Steubenville, West Virginia–Ohio (93%), also lagged, highlighting how recovery can be delayed by structural and regional challenges. In contrast, many other metro areas have not only recovered but expanded beyond their pre-pandemic employment levels. As of August 2025, 300 metro areas have fully rebounded, with some even booming. Wildwood–The Villages, Florida, leads the nation with employment reaching 127% of its February 2020 level, followed by St. George, Utah, at 125%. Notably, the areas that suffered the sharpest employment declines in 2020 did not necessarily experience the slowest recoveries. Las Vegas–Henderson–North Las Vegas, Nevada, for instance, lost 277,900 jobs, about 26% of its workforce, but has rebounded strongly, reaching 109% of its pre-pandemic employment. By contrast, Enid, Oklahoma, which lost just 1,600 jobs, remains slightly below its February 2020 level, still 2% short of full recovery. The story of employment loss and recovery across U.S. metro areas underscores the uneven geography of the COVID-19 economy. The resilience of local economies has since reshaped the post-pandemic landscape, revealing not only where recovery has taken root but also where it remains incomplete. And of course, the health of local labor markets has important impacts on the status of local home building and remodeling conditions.

Employment Loss and Post-COVID Recovery Across U.S. Metro Areas2025-11-12T08:15:10-06:00

Which Local Markets Track National Trends the Most: 2024 Single-Family MAI

2025-10-30T09:17:46-05:00

The National Association of Home Builders developed the Single-Family Market Association Index (MAI) to measure how closely single-family building permits in metro areas follow national patterns. By comparing local and national trends, the MAI helps industry leaders and forecasters better understand and predict housing market activity. The MAI uses 2015-2024 single permit data to create five- and ten-year correlations for each metropolitan statistical area (MSA), showing their similarity to national patterns. The five- and ten-year correlations are then averaged, with more weight given to the five-year correlation. The resulting correlation coefficient ranges from negative one to positive one, indicating the strength and direction of the relationship between local and national trends. The MSA that had one of the highest associations with the national trends was Odessa, Texas with a correlation of 0.97. Meanwhile, Boulder, Colorado, a similarly sized MSA, had the most negative correlation of -0.81. The scatter plot below illustrates the linear relationship between these MSAs and the national trend. For example, when national permit levels rose toward 1.1 million, Odessa (positive correlation) also has relatively high permit levels of around 1,400. At the same time, Boulder (negative correlation) has relatively low permits, below 400. Of the 387 metro areas included in the single-family MAI, the average correlation is 0.43. In total, 342 MSAs had a correlation greater than zero, and 45 MSAs had less than zero. A positive correlation is expected as MSAs in total accounted for almost 90% of all single-family permits in the U.S. on average between 2015 and 2024. A complete list of the MSA correlations is found here and shown on the map below. The MSA that most closely followed the national permit trend was San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX. Strong association was present throughout the South region. The West and Northeast regions are where many MSAs show weak association with the national permit trend. Below are tables of the top ten highest and lowest associated MSAs. A release of the Multifamily MAI will be followed in another post shortly. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Which Local Markets Track National Trends the Most: 2024 Single-Family MAI2025-10-30T09:17:46-05:00

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