Home Prices Continue to Decline in September

2022-11-29T11:16:59-06:00

Home prices declined for the third straight month in September as the housing market continues to cool. In September, all 20 metro areas experienced negative home price appreciation. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, fell at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 8.7% in September, following a 6.4% decline in July and a 10.4% decrease in August. After a decade of growth, home prices started to decline in July, driven by elevated interest rates and high construction costs. The July decline marked the first decline since February 2012, and the September decline marks the third consecutive monthly decline. Nonetheless, national home prices are now 62.4% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in March 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 10.6% annual gain in September, after a 12.9% increase in August. Year-over-year home price appreciation slowed for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in September, following the previous two months’ decreases. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 11.0% in September, following a 12.0% increase in August. The FHFA thus confirmed the slowdown in home price appreciation. In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P CoreLogic reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in September. All 20 metro areas reported negative home price appreciation. Their annual growth rates ranged from -23.2% to -3.7% in September. San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Phoenix experienced the most monthly declines in home prices. San Francisco declined 23.2%, while Las Vegas and Phoenix declined 22.7% and 22.3%, respectively. The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in August and in September 2022. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in August; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in September.  Compared to last month, home prices declined faster in September in the following 12 metro areas: Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Cleveland, and Dallas. Related ‹ Declining Trend of Two-Story FoyerTags: FHFA Home Price Index, home prices, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Home Prices Continue to Decline in September2022-11-29T11:16:59-06:00

New Home Sales Increase in October

2022-11-23T11:19:34-06:00

By Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington on November 23, 2022 • New home sales rebounded in October despite higher mortgage rates, likely due to low existing home inventory and builders using incentives to attract buyers to the new home market. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau estimated sales of newly built, single-family homes in October at a 632,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, which is a 7.5% increase over downwardly revised September rate of 588,000 and is 5.8% below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000. Sales-adjusted inventory levels are at an elevated 8.9 months’ supply in October. However, only 63,000 of the new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. This count has been increasing in recent months and is up 75.0% compared to a year ago. Homes under construction accounts for 63.8% of the inventory. Moreover, sales are increasingly coming from homes that have not started construction, with that count up 13.7% year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). The median sales price increased to $493,000 in October, up 8.2% compared to September and is up 15.4% compared to a year ago. In October there were 23,000 homes that were priced above $500,000 compared to 17,000 a year ago. Nationally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 14.2% for the first ten months of 2022. Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 4.8% in the Northeast, 22.0% in the Midwest, 11.8% in the South, and 17.9% in the West. Related ‹ Small Increase for Missing Middle MultifamilyTags: economics, home building, housing, new home sales, sales, single-family

New Home Sales Increase in October2022-11-23T11:19:34-06:00

Employment Situation in October: State-Level Analysis

2022-11-22T08:16:53-06:00

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 42 states in October compared to the previous month while eight states and the District of Columbia lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, following a gain of 315,000 jobs in September. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was strong in California, which added 56,700 jobs, followed by Texas (+49,500), and Florida (+36,400). Eight states lost a total of 26,400 jobs.  In percentage terms, employment in Hawaii increased by 0.8% while Wyoming reported a 0.4% decline between September and October. Year-over-year ending in October, 5.3 million jobs have been recovered, marking a full recovery of the labor market from the COVID-19 pandemic induced recession. All the states and District of Columbia added jobs compared to a year ago. The range of job gains spanned 695,500 jobs in California to 100 jobs added in Mississippi. In percentage terms, Texas reported the highest increase by 5.4%, while Mississippi was essentially unchanged (0.0%) compared to a year ago. Across the 48 states which reported construction sector jobs data—which includes both residential as well as non-residential construction— 25 states reported an increase in October compared to September, while 19 lost construction sector jobs. Four states, Alaska, Minnesota, Montana, and Rhode Island reported no change. New York added 4,500 construction jobs while Pennsylvania lost 3,500 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 1,000 jobs in October compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, North Dakota increased by 2.0% while Louisiana reported a decline of 2.7% between September and October. Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 266,000, which is a 3.6% increase compared to the October 2021 level. Texas added 41,600 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while Louisiana lost 9,000 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, North Dakota had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector by 20.8%. Over this period, Louisiana reported a decline of 6.8%. Related ‹ Gain for Custom Home BuildingNew Single-Family Home Size Trending Lower ›Tags: construction labor, economics, state and local markets, state employment

Employment Situation in October: State-Level Analysis2022-11-22T08:16:53-06:00

Single-Family Permits Decline in September 2022

2022-11-15T09:18:27-06:00

Over the first nine months of 2022, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 800,424. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 7.4% below the September 2021 level of 864,184. Year-to-date ending in September, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The South posted a modest decline of 5.4%, while the Midwest region reported the steepest decline of 11.0%. The Northeast declined by 8.6% and the Western region reported an 10.0% decline in single-family permits during this time. On the other hand, multifamily permits posted increased in all four regions. Permits were 24.4% higher in the South, 22.5% higher in the Midwest, 11.3% higher in the West, and 6.0% higher in the Northeast. Between September 2021 YTD and September 2022 YTD, seven states saw growth in single-family permits issued. New Mexico recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 35.2% going from 4,432 permits to 5,993. Forty-three states and the District of Columbia reported a decline in single-family permits during this time with the District of Columbia posting the steepest decline of 36.9% declining from 328 permits to 207. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.7% of the total single-family permits issued. Year-to-date, ending in September, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 516,955. This is 17.8% ahead of the September 2021 level of 438,700. Between September 2021 YTD and September 2022 YTD, 41 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth, while nine states recorded a decline in multifamily permits. Georgia led the way with a sharp rise (159.9%) in multifamily permits from 8,375 to 21,766 while Delaware had the largest decline of 75.1% from 962 to 240. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.5% of the multifamily permits issued. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. Metropolitan Statistical Area Single-Family Permits: Sep-22 (Units #YTD, NSA) Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX                                                                                          39,590 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                                                                          36,445 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ                                                                                          23,399 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA                                                                                          21,743 Austin-Round Rock, TX                                                                                          18,320 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC                                                                                          15,496 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL                                                                                          13,017 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN                                                                                          12,781 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL                                                                                          12,639 Jacksonville, FL                                                                                          11,395 For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.  Metropolitan Statistical Area  Multifamily Permits: Sep-22 (Units #YTD, NSA) New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA                                                                                        38,978 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                                                                        24,071 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX                                                                                        21,070 Austin-Round Rock, TX                                                                                        18,682 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA                                                                                        16,008 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV                                                                                        15,484 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA                                                                                        15,208 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA                                                                                        14,831 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ                                                                                        13,816 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI                                                                                        12,617   Related ‹ Patios Continue to Substitute for Decks on New HomesTags: home building, multifamily, single-family, state and local markets, state permits

Single-Family Permits Decline in September 20222022-11-15T09:18:27-06:00

Patios Continue to Substitute for Decks on New Homes

2022-11-14T08:18:25-06:00

As a previous post has shown, the share of new homes with patios increased for the sixth year in a row in 2021, to a post-2004 high of 63.0 percent  At the same time, the share with decks was trending in the opposite direction, declining for the fifth year in a row to a post-2004 low.  Of the roughly 1.1 million single-family homes started in 2021, only 17.5 percent included decks, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and partially funded by HUD).  As noted above, this is the lowest the new home deck percentage has been since the 2005 re-design of the SOC and indicates that, over time, patios and decks have functioned as substitutes for each other. The 2021 SOC data also indicate that decks and patios tend to function as substitutes for each other geographically.  Across the nine Census divisions, the correlation between the percentages of new homes with decks and patios was  -.81.  The share of new homes with decks was at its lowest in the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions (7 and 13 percent, respectively), the same two divisions where the share of new homes with patios was at its highest (over 70 percent). Decks on new homes nevertheless remain relatively popular in certain parts of the country.  For example, over 60 percent of new homes in New England came with decks in 2021, followed by 47 percent in the West North Central and 41 percent in the Middle Atlantic.  The New England and Middle Atlantic divisions are also the two divisions where patios on new homes are least common.  The West North Central, however, stands out as the one division where the shares of new homes with decks and patios are both reasonably high (around 45 percent), providing the best evidence that the negative correlation between decks and patios, while quite strong at -.81, is not perfect. The SOC data provide information about the number of new homes with decks, but not much detail beyond that.  However, considerable information about the type of decks on new homes is available from the Annual Builder Practices Survey (BPS) conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs. For the U.S. as a whole, the 2022 BPS report (based on homes built in 2021) shows that the average size of a deck on a new single-family home is 296 square feet.  Across Census divisions, the average deck size ranges from a low of about 253 square feet in the West North Central and South Atlantic divisions to 456 square feet in the West South Central. The latest BPS also shows that composite (a mixture of usually recycled wood fibers and plastic) has moved ahead of treated wood as the material used most often in new home decks. Related ‹ Inflation Shifts to Slowest Pace Since JanuaryTags: BPS, builder practices survey, composite, decks, economics, home building, housing, patios, SOC, survey of construction

Patios Continue to Substitute for Decks on New Homes2022-11-14T08:18:25-06:00

Labor Market Softens in October

2022-11-04T11:18:49-05:00

Job growth slowed in October as the Fed continues its tightening of financial conditions to fight inflation, but the overall labor market remains tight. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in October as the number of persons in the labor force decreased for the second straight month. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, following a gain of 315,000 in September, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. It marks the smallest monthly job gain in nearly two years. The estimate for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, while the September increase was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000. In the first ten months of 2022, nearly 4.1 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 407,000 per month. The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in October. The number of unemployed persons increased by 306,000 to 6.1 million, while the number of employed persons decreased by 328,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already with a job, edged down 0.1 percentage point to 62.2% in October, reflecting the increase in the number of persons not in the labor force and the decrease in the number of persons in the labor force. Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people aged between 25 and 54 decreased to 82.5%. Both of these two rates are still below their pre-pandemic levels in the beginning of 2020, and are not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. For industry sectors, health care (+53,000), professional and technical services (+43,000), and manufacturing (+32,000) led job gains in October. Employment in the overall construction sector was little changed (+1,000) in October, following a 22,000 gain in September. Residential construction gained 900 jobs, while non-residential construction employment gained 300 jobs in October. Residential construction employment currently exceeds its level in February 2020, while 83% of non-residential construction jobs lost in March and April have now been recovered. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.2 million in October, broken down as 904,000 builders and 2.3 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 6,217 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 105,300 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,195,000 positions. In October, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 1.0 percentage points to 5.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has been trending lower, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Related ‹ Share of Young Adults Living with Parents Declined in 2021Tags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Labor Market Softens in October2022-11-04T11:18:49-05:00

Number of Bathrooms in New Homes in 2021

2022-11-03T09:16:50-05:00

By Jesse Wade on November 3, 2022 • The Census Bureau’s latest Survey of Construction (SOC) shows slight changes in the number of full and half bathrooms for new single-family homes started in 2021 compared to 2020. The current data shows that 3.1% of new single-family homes started had one full bathroom or less, 62.6% had 2 full bathrooms, 27.0% had 3 full bathrooms and 7.3% had 4 or more full bathrooms. Figure 1 shows how the share of new single-family home starts by full bathrooms has changed dating back to 2005. The shares of new single-family homes with 1 or less full bathroom, 3 full bathrooms, and 4 or more full bathrooms all increased from 2020 while the share of new single-family homes with 2 full bathrooms decreased. As expected, homes with 2 full bathrooms continues to have the highest share of new single-family home starts. This share has fluctuated between 69.9% and 59.3% of all new starts since with the lowest level of 59.3% in 2015. Larger homes continue to feature more full bathrooms when compared to smaller homes. 93.8% of new single-family home starts that were 5,000 square feet or more had 3 or more full bathrooms. When comparing this to new single-family homes between 2400-2999 square feet, only 44.1% of homes had 3 or more bathrooms while 55.9% had 2 or fewer full bathrooms. This is consistent with the idea that smaller homes have fewer full bathrooms. Figure 2 shows the share of new single-family homes started in 2021 with 2 full bathrooms by census division. The share of new single-family home starts with 2 full bathrooms varies across the United States. The East North Central census division comes in with the highest share at 70.3% of new single-family home starts having 2 bathrooms. The lowest census division is the West North Central having a share of 54.0% having 2 bathrooms. In 2021, a majority of new single-family homes (53.7%) had no half-bathrooms while 44.5% of the homes had 1 half-bathroom. New single-family homes with 2 or more half-bathrooms had a share of 1.7% in 2021. Related ‹ An End to Large Rate Hikes from the Fed?Tags: bathrooms, new homes, Single-Family homes, SOC, survey of construction

Number of Bathrooms in New Homes in 20212022-11-03T09:16:50-05:00

Economic Growth and Signs of Cooling Inflation in Third Quarter

2022-10-27T12:17:44-05:00

Real GDP grew in the third quarter, after shrinking for the first two straight quarters of 2022. This quarter’s growth was mostly fueled by a decline in the trade deficit. More important, the data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index, rose 4.1% for the third quarter, down from a 9.0% increase in the second quarter. Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price Index, capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior, rose 4.2% in the third quarter, down sharply from 7.3%. Looking forward, a mild recession is expected in the coming year as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten financial conditions. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the third quarter, following a 0.6% decrease in the second quarter and a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter. This quarter’s increase reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, partially offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. In the third quarter, exports increased 14.4%, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased 6.9%. Net exports rose by $156.6 billion in the third quarter, contributing 2.77 percentage points to GDP growth. Meanwhile, federal government spending increased 3.7% in the third quarter, reflecting increases in both national defense and nondefense spending, while state and local government spending rose 1.7%, led by an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. Consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in the third quarter, down from a 2.0% increase in the second quarter. An increase in services was partly offset by a decrease in goods services. While expenditures on services increased 2.8% at an annual rate, goods spending decreased 1.2% at an annual rate, led by motor vehicles and parts (-11.7%) as well as food and beverages (-3.8%). Nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.7% in the third quarter. Increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures declined 36.3% at an annual rate, multifamily structures declined 5.5% and other structures (specifically brokers’ commissions) decreased 21.5%. Related ‹ Housing Share of GDP Continues to DecreaseTags: economics, gdp, inflation, macroeconomics, macroeconomy, PCE, residential fixed investment, the GDP price index

Economic Growth and Signs of Cooling Inflation in Third Quarter2022-10-27T12:17:44-05:00

Employment Situation in September: State-Level Analysis

2022-10-24T09:18:02-05:00

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia in September compared to the previous month while six states lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, following a gain of 315,000 jobs in August. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was strong in Florida, which added 48,800 jobs, followed by Texas (+40,000), and North Carolina (+17,400). Six states lost a total of 18,300 jobs.  In percentage terms, employment in New Hampshire and Kentucky each increased by 0.8% while Delaware reported a 0.6% decline between August and September. Year-over-year ending in September, 5.7 million jobs have been recovered, marking a full recovery of the labor market from the COVID-19 pandemic induced recession. All the states and District of Columbia added jobs compared to a year ago. The range of job gains spanned 721,800 jobs in Texas to 6,600 jobs added in Alaska. In percentage terms, Texas reported the highest increase by 5.6%, while Mississippi increased by 1.2% compared to a year ago. Across the 48 states which reported construction sector jobs data—which includes both residential as well as non-residential construction— 30 states reported an increase in September compared to August, while 15 lost construction sector jobs. New Hampshire, Oregon, and Rhode Island reported no change. Florida added 6,900 construction jobs while New Jersey lost 2,700 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 19,000 jobs in September compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, North Dakota increased by 4.6% while Alabama reported a decline of 2.4% between August and September. Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 292,000, which is a 3.9% increase compared to the September 2021 level. California added 44,500 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while New Jersey lost 3,800 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, North Dakota had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector by 19.2%. Over this period, South Carolina reported a decline of 2.8%. Related ‹ Spec Square Foot Prices Skyrocket in 2021Prospect of Higher Rates Leads Some to Consider Buying a Home ›Tags: construction labor, economics, state and local markets, state employment

Employment Situation in September: State-Level Analysis2022-10-24T09:18:02-05:00

Single-Family Permits Decline in August 2022

2022-10-17T09:21:37-05:00

Over the first eight months of 2022, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 728,866. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 6.0% below the August 2021 level of 775,772. Year-to-date ending in August, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The South posted a modest decline of 3.9%, while the Midwest region reported the steepest decline of 10.6%. The Northeast declined by 9.8% and the Western region reported an 8.0% decline in single-family permits during this time. On the other hand, multifamily permits posted increased in all four regions. Permits were 24.4% higher in the Midwest, 22.5% higher in the South, 9.6% higher in the West, and 3.8% higher in the Northeast. Between August 2021 YTD and August 2022 YTD, eight states saw growth in single-family permits issued. New Mexico recorded the highest growth rate during this time at 37.1% going from 3,961 permits to 5,431. Forty-two states and the District of Columbia reported a decline in single-family permits during this time with the District of Columbia posting the steepest decline of 25.4% declining from 268 permits to 200. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Year-to-date, ending in August, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 456,244. This is 16.4% ahead of the August 2021 level of 392,067. Between August 2021 YTD and August 2022 YTD, 39 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth, while 11 states recorded a decline in multifamily permits. Hawaii led the way with a sharp rise (187.8%) in multifamily permits from 320 to 921 while Delaware had the largest decline of 76.3% from 928 to 220. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.6% of the multifamily permits issued. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. Metropolitan Statistical Area Single-Family Permits: Aug-22 (Units #YTD, NSA) Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX                                                                                          35,973 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                                                                          33,435 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ                                                                                          21,886 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA                                                                                          19,551 Austin-Round Rock, TX                                                                                          16,927 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC                                                                                          14,218 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL                                                                                          12,094 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL                                                                                          11,566 Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN                                                                                          11,564 Jacksonville, FL                                                                                          10,353 For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits.  Metropolitan Statistical Area  Multifamily Permits: Aug-22 (Units #YTD, NSA) New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA                                                                                        36,009 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX                                                                                        22,495 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX                                                                                        18,025 Austin-Round Rock, TX                                                                                        16,979 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA                                                                                        13,901 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA                                                                                        13,407 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA                                                                                        13,090 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV                                                                                        12,651 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ                                                                                        12,154 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI                                                                                        11,232 Related ‹ Share of New Homes with Porches Dips Below 64 PercentTags: home building, multifamily, single-family, state and local markets, state permits

Single-Family Permits Decline in August 20222022-10-17T09:21:37-05:00

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