Preference for New Homes Keeps Rising 

2024-05-24T09:17:28-05:00

The desirability of new homes continues to grow. Faced with the alternative of choosing between an existing home and a newly built home, 61% of home buyers in a recent NAHB study* indicated a new home is their first preference. That marks the highest share of buyers leaning toward a new home since 2007, when 63% of buyers preferred new construction.  To compare, in 2018, 54% of buyers preferred a new home. The share jumped to 60% in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic reduced existing inventory and made many buyers afraid of touring occupied homes. By 2023, high mortgage rates had ‘locked-in’ millions of existing homeowners in their homes, and that supply vacuum left new homes as the only available option for many buyers. An important fact to highlight is that in 2023, the price of a typical new home was only 9% higher than the price of a typical existing home ($428,200 vs. $394,100). In sharp contrast, that gap was four times larger in 2013, when new homes cost 36% more than existing homes ($268,900 vs. $197,400). New homes can be custom-built on the buyer’s lot, or they can be built-for-sale (including the land). Over the last two decades, the NAHB study* shows a rising trend in the share of buyers who would prefer a new home built-for-sale, from 22% in 2003 to 40% in 2023. In contrast, the share who would prefer a custom-built home declined from 49% to 21% during this period. *  What Home Buyers Really Want, 2024 Edition sheds light on the housing preferences of the typical home buyer and is based on a national survey of more than 3,000 recent and prospective home buyers. Because of the inherent diversity in buyer backgrounds, the study provides granular specificity based on demographic factors such as generation, geographic location, race/ethnicity, income, and price point. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Preference for New Homes Keeps Rising 2024-05-24T09:17:28-05:00

NAHB/Wells Fargo Debut New Cost of Housing Index

2024-05-23T09:19:22-05:00

A new quarterly Cost of Housing Index (CHI) highlights the burden that housing costs represent for middle and low-income families. In its inaugural release for the first quarter of 2024, CHI revealed that a typical family in the U.S. must spend 38% of its income to cover the mortgage payment on a median priced new single-family home. Low-income families, defined as those earning only 50% of median income, would have to spend 77% of their earnings to pay for the same new home. The figures track closely for the purchase of existing homes in the U.S. as well. A typical family would have to pay 36% of its income for a median-priced existing home, while a low-income family would need to pay 71% of its earnings to make the same mortgage payment. CHI results in the first quarter are based on a national median new home price of $420,800 and median income of $97,800. The corresponding price for an existing home is $389,400. Additionally, CHI breaks down the percentage of a family’s income needed to make a mortgage payment on an existing home in 176 metropolitan areas based on the local median home price and median income. Percentages are also calculated for low-income families in these markets. In eight out of 176 markets in the first quarter, the typical family is severely cost-burdened (must pay more than 50% of their income on a median-priced existing home).  In 80 other markets, such families are cost-burdened (need to pay between 31% and 50%). There are 88 markets where the CHI is 30% of earnings or lower. The Top Five Severely Cost-Burdened Markets San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif. was the most severely cost-burdened market on the CHI, where 84% of a typical family’s income is needed to make a mortgage payment on an existing home. This was followed by: •           Urban Honolulu, Hawaii (73%)•           Naples-Marco Island, Fla. (71%)•           San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif. (70%)•           San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif. (69%) Low-income families would have to pay between 138% and 168% of their income in all five of the above markets to cover a mortgage. The Top Five Least Cost-Burdened Markets By contrast, Peoria and Decatur, Ill. tied as the least cost-burdened markets on the CHI, where families needed to spend just 14% of their income to pay for a mortgage on an existing home. Rounding out the least burdened markets are: •           Cumberland, Md.-W.Va (15%)•           Springfield, Ill. (16%)•           Elmira, N.Y. (16%) Low-income families in these markets would have to pay between 28% and 32% of their income to cover the mortgage payment for a median-priced existing home. Visit nahb.org/chi for tables and details. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

NAHB/Wells Fargo Debut New Cost of Housing Index2024-05-23T09:19:22-05:00

Top Compromises Buyers Will Make to Reach Homeownership

2024-05-13T09:20:09-05:00

High mortgage rates and double-digit growth in home prices since COVID-19 have brought housing affordability to its lowest level in more than a decade.  Given this reality, a recent NAHB study on housing preferences* asked home buyers about which specific compromises they would be willing to make to achieve homeownership. For 39% of buyers, accepting a smaller lot is the path to affording a home.  This finding highlights the paramount importance of reforming zoning laws that mandate lot sizes, as nearly 4 out of 10 buyers would be willing to give up land in exchange for owning a home.  For 36% of buyers, accepting fewer exterior amenities is the way to homeownership—they will simply add that deck or patio at some point in the future.  Another 36% were willing to move farther from the urban core and 35% will accept a smaller house if that’s what it takes to buy it. But what areas of the home, specifically, should shrink to reduce the overall footprint of the home?  Most buyers who will take the smaller house compromise sent builders and architects a clear message: shrink the home office (53%) and the dining room (52%) to save on square footage.  Also, loud and clear in the message: leave the kitchen (only 21% would want that smaller) and closet space (22%) alone. *  What Home Buyers Really Want, 2024 Edition sheds light on the housing preferences of the typical home buyer and is based on a national survey of more than 3,000 recent and prospective home buyers.  Because of the inherent diversity in buyer backgrounds, the study provides granular specificity based on demographic factors such as generation, geographic location, race/ethnicity, income, and price point. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Top Compromises Buyers Will Make to Reach Homeownership2024-05-13T09:20:09-05:00

Credit for Builders Tightens Slightly, Remains Costly

2024-05-10T15:15:43-05:00

During the first quarter of 2024, credit for residential Land Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) tightened slightly and remained costly, according to NAHB’s survey on AD&C Financing. The net easing index derived from the survey posted a reading of -22.0 (the negative number indicating that credit availability tightened in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2023). A comparable net easing index based on the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers showed a similar result, with a reading of -24.6. Accordingly, borrowers and lenders were in close agreement about the tightening taking place in the first quarter. The net tightening reported by the NAHB and Fed indices in 2024 Q1 is not as poor as it was from mid-2022 through the third quarter of 2023 when both indices were consistently below -35.0. The NAHB index was as low as -49.3 in 2023 Q3, and the Fed index hit a trough of -73.8 in the first quarter of that year. However, both indices have been negative every quarter since 2022 Q1. After nine consecutive quarters of tightening, credit has now unquestionably become difficult for most builders and developers to obtain, irrespective of how much additional tightening lenders applied in 2024 Q1. According to the NAHB survey, the most common ways in which lenders tightened in the first quarter were by reducing the amount they are willing to lend, reported by 62% of builders and developers; and requiring personal guarantees/other collateral unrelated to the project and increasing interest rates, reported by 48% each. As these results suggest, when builders and developers were able to obtain credit in the first quarter of 2024, that credit remained costly. The average effective interest rate (taking both the contract rate and initial points into account) on land acquisition loans increased from 10.58% to 11.09% in 2024 Q1—as high as the rate on acquisition loans has been since NAHB began tracking it in 2018. Meanwhile, the effective rate on the other three categories of AD&C loans in the first quarter stood near 13%. The average effective rate increased on loans for land development (from 11.25% in 2023 Q4 to 13.10%) and speculative single-family construction (from 12.96% to 13.35%), while declining from 15.65% to 12.95% on loans for pre-sold single-family construction. Quarter-over-quarter changes in the effective rates were driven largely by initial points on the loans. On loans for pre-sold single-family construction, average initial points declined from an atypically high 1.08% in 2023 Q4 to 0.57%. On the other three categories of AD&C loans, the average initial points increased: from 0.71% to 0.88% on loans for land acquisition, from 0.60% to 0.85% on loans for land development, and from 0.73% to 0.76% on loans for speculative single-family construction. Quarter-over-quarter changes in the underlying contract interest rate on the loans were relatively modest. The average contract rate declined from 8.12% in 2023 Q4 to 8.07% on loans for land development, and from 8.41% to 8.24% on loans for speculative single-family construction. The average contract rate increased from 8.31% to 8.40% on loans for land acquisition, and from 8.38% to 8.40% on loans for pre-sold single-family construction. Recent increases in mortgage rates and their adverse effect on housing affordability have received considerable attention lately, and justifiably so. That is not the only way interest rates impact affordability, however.  Builders and developers will struggle to increase the supply of affordable housing unless they can access all the necessary inputs at a reasonable cost, including AD&C credit. More detail on credit conditions for builders and developers is available on NAHB’s AD&C Financing Survey web page. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Credit for Builders Tightens Slightly, Remains Costly2024-05-10T15:15:43-05:00

High Interest Rates, Construction Costs Are Serious Impediments for New Multifamily Development

2024-05-10T09:14:19-05:00

Every quarter, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) conducts a survey of multifamily builders/developers and property managers.  The first part of the survey collects the information required to produce the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS). The MMS produces two separate indices: 1) the Multifamily Production Index (MPI) and 2) the Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI).  The MPI is a weighted average of current conditions in three markets: low-rent and market rate rental units-apartments along with for-sale units (e.g., condominiums).  The MOI is a weighted average of current occupancy indexes for class A, B, and C multifamily units.  Results for Q1 2024 were released yesterday which can be accessed here. In addition to the questions required for the MMS and its components, the quarterly survey sometimes includes a set of “special” questions on a topic of current interest to the multifamily industry.  The special question included in the Q1 2024 survey asked multifamily builders and property managers about how serious impediments are to starting a new multifamily development today. This was completed using a scale from1 to 5, with 1 being no impediment at all and 5 being a very serious impediment. As shown in Figure 1, high interest rates and high construction costs are the top impediments to starting new multifamily development , with both options receiving an average rating above 4 and at least 80% of respondents rating each option as a 4 or 5.  The next four options (high land costs, regulations, rising operations costs, lack of lender interest) are moderate impediments, with at least 50% of respondents rating each option as a 4 or 5.  The least likely impediment to additional multifamily construction is a rising/high vacancy rate, which received the lowest average rating of 2.5, corroborating the high MOI reading from the most recent MMS. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

High Interest Rates, Construction Costs Are Serious Impediments for New Multifamily Development2024-05-10T09:14:19-05:00

Home Buyers’ Ideal Community

2024-05-06T08:14:21-05:00

NAHB’s latest study on consumer preferences—What Home Buyers Really Want Study*— asked about the features and amenities buyers want in the home, but also about the type of community where they would like to live.  The question is important because the home that successfully appeals to buyers doesn’t exist in a vacuum—it sits inside a community they evaluate as thoroughly as the home itself. Our findings reveal that the ideal community offers three main attributes: convenience, walkability, and a suburban feel.  This conclusion is gleaned from the top five features buyers most want in a community, which are being close to retail space (e.g., pharmacy, grocery store) (70%), near a park area (66%), walking/jogging trails (66%), a walkable community (pathways connecting homes to transportation, shopping, etc.) (65%), and a typically suburban community (64%). In terms of the overall location where buyers would prefer to purchase a home, 53% would like to buy in the suburbs (either close-in or outlying), a rural area (25%), or the central city (downtown or outside of it) (23%).  The study also asked buyers about the farthest distance they are willing to travel one-way from home to work.  For the typical buyer, that sweet spot is 11.3 miles—which is not surprising given that most report a desire to live in the suburbs. *  What Home Buyers Really Want, 2024 Edition sheds light on the housing preferences of the typical home buyer and is based on a national survey of more than 3,000 recent and prospective home buyers.  Because of the inherent diversity in buyer backgrounds, the study provides granular specificity based on demographic factors such as generation, geographic location, race/ethnicity, income, and price point. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Home Buyers’ Ideal Community2024-05-06T08:14:21-05:00

Buyer Preference for a Detached Home Remains Strong

2024-04-22T09:14:28-05:00

A recent NAHB study on home buyer preferences* found that a single-family detached home remains the first purchase option for two of every three buyers.  Far smaller shares are looking to buy a townhome (16%), a multifamily home (10%), or a manufactured home (5%). In the face of such strong preference for a detached home, and given the significant growth in home prices and lot values in recent years, the study aimed to understand what size discount would give buyers a strong enough incentive to buy a townhouse instead of a detached home.  The question specified a critical assumption: the townhouse would be in the same location as the detached home, have the same square footage of finished space and include the same quality materials.  In other words, the townhouse would be comparable to the detached home in every practical way except for the size of the land around it. Our findings show that, on average, buyers would need a 30% discount to consider buying a (mostly) comparable townhouse instead of a detached home.  Yet previous NAHB research has shown that the finished lot only accounts for about 18% of the price of a new detached home.  This means that in most cases, it is simply not feasible for builders to offer a 30% discount for a townhouse of the same size, quality and location as a detached home– even one sitting on the smallest possible plot of land. *  What Home Buyers Really Want, 2024 Edition sheds light on the housing preferences of the typical home buyer and is based on a national survey of more than 3,000 recent and prospective home buyers.  Because of the inherent diversity in buyer backgrounds, the study provides granular specificity based on demographic factors such as generation, geographic location, race/ethnicity, income, and price point. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Buyer Preference for a Detached Home Remains Strong2024-04-22T09:14:28-05:00

Most Home Buyers Want One, Medium-Sized Home Office

2024-04-17T09:16:25-05:00

According to the latest What Home Buyers Really Want Study*, the vast majority of home buyers are looking for a home with at least one home office (or space dedicated to work/study).  More specifically, 66% would prefer to buy a home with exactly one home office, 13% want at least two offices, and 20% want none (Fig. 1). As homes continue to get smaller, understanding how much square footage buyers want to dedicate to a home office is a must.  When asked, 59% of buyers interested in having a home office said it should be medium size (100 to 150 square feet).  Much smaller shares of 22% and 19%, respectively, want the home office to be large (more than 150 square feet) or small (under 100 square feet). More granular findings show that younger buyers as well as wealthier buyers are particularly in favor of home offices. Among Gen Z buyers, for example, 90% want at least one home office, compared to 75% of Boomers.  Likewise, 92% of buyers in the $150,000+ income bracket would like at least one office, compared to 65% among those earning under $50,000. *  What Home Buyers Really Want, 2024 Edition sheds light on the housing preferences of the typical home buyer and is based on a national survey of more than 3,000 recent and prospective home buyers.  Because of the inherent diversity in buyer backgrounds, the study provides granular specificity based on demographic factors such as generation, geographic location, race/ethnicity, income, and price point. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts to your email.

Most Home Buyers Want One, Medium-Sized Home Office2024-04-17T09:16:25-05:00

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