Mortgage Rates Rise in November Amid Post-Election Market Volatility

2024-12-09T12:14:46-06:00

Mortgage rates climbed in November, driven by market volatility and a surge in Treasury yields following the recent elections. On the day after the election results, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 14 basis points (bps), setting the stage for further rate increases throughout the month. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 38 basis points from October, reaching 6.81%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw an even steeper increase of 43 bps to land at 6.03%. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for mortgage rates, averaged 4.37% in November—38 bps higher than October’s average. This increase reflected heightened market uncertainty and persistent volatility. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is set to meet on December 17-18 to evaluate the possibility of another rate cut. Since the federal funds rate influences interest rates, a rate cut could potentially ease long-term mortgage rates, but this decision will hinge on the latest employment and inflation data, and other macroeconomic factors that could have an upward pressure on inflation including larger government deficits and higher tariffs. NAHB forecasts additional declines to the federal funds rate into a range below 4%. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Mortgage Rates Rise in November Amid Post-Election Market Volatility2024-12-09T12:14:46-06:00

Existing Home Sales Rebound in October

2024-11-21T11:15:05-06:00

Existing home sales in October rebounded from a 14-year low and posted the first annual increase in more than three years, as buyers took advantage when mortgage rates briefly reached a 2-year low in late September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). While elevated home prices persist due to the lock-in effect, we expect sales activity to increase as mortgage rates moderate with additional Fed easing. Improving inventory should help slow home price growth and enhance affordability. Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. With the Federal Reserve beginning its easing cycle at the September meeting, mortgage rates are expected to gradually decrease, leading to increased demand and unlocking lock-in inventory in the coming quarters. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 3.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in October. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 2.9% higher than a year ago, ending a 38-month streak of year-over-year declines since July 2021. The first-time buyer share rose to 27% in October, up from 26% in September but down from 28% in October 2023. The existing home inventory level rose from 1.36 million in September to 1.37 million units in October and is up 19.1% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, September unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-months supply, down from 4.3-months last month but up 3.6-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. Homes stayed on the market for an average of 29 days in October, up from 28 days in September and 23 days in October 2023. The October all-cash sales share was 27% of transactions, down from 30% in September and 29% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates. The October median sales price of all existing homes was $407,200, up 4.0% from last year. This marked the 16th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. The median condominium/co-op price in October was up 1.6% from a year ago at $360,300. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases. Geographically, all four regions saw an increase in existing home sales in October, ranging from 1.3% in the West to 6.7% in the Midwest. On a year-over-year basis, sales rose 1.1%, 2.3%, and 8.5% in the Midwest, South and West. Sales in the Northeast stayed unchanged. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.6 to 75.8 in September due to improved inventory and lower mortgage rates in late summer. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 2.6% higher than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Existing Home Sales Rebound in October2024-11-21T11:15:05-06:00

Mortgage Rates Reversed Downwards Trend in October

2024-11-06T14:15:57-06:00

In October, mortgage rates reversed their recent downward trajectory, returning to levels two months earlier. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased 25 basis points (bps) from September to 6.18%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw an even steeper increase of 34 bps to land at 5.60%. These increases coincided with heightened volatility in the 10-year Treasury yield, which jumped 38 bps over the month, moving from 3.72% in September to 4.10%. This spike followed a weaker-than-expected labor report driven by the disruptions from two hurricanes, as well as the Boeing strike, and the 2024 election. However, the largest part of the increase for interest rates is due to growing, post-election concerns over budget deficits. NAHB will be revising its interest rate outlook as the final election results are determined and the fiscal policy position comes into focus. Nonetheless, long-term interest rates have increased since September due to election developments. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Mortgage Rates Reversed Downwards Trend in October2024-11-06T14:15:57-06:00

Mortgage Activity Declines in October as Mortgage Rates Increase

2024-11-06T13:16:48-06:00

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, decreased 13.9% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis due to higher mortgage rates. This decline was reflected in both the Purchase and Refinance Indices, which fell by 4.4% and 23%, respectively. However, compared to October 2023, the Market Composite Index is up by 39%, with the Purchase Index seeing a slight 1.9% increase and the Refinance Index higher by 149.9%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reversed its downward trajectory with an increase of 36 basis points (bps), following volatility in the ten-year Treasury yield. This brought the rate back to around the same level as it was in August at 6.53%. However, compared to its peak last October, the current rate is 125 bps lower. The average loan size for the total market (including purchases and refinances) was $390,225 on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, a decrease of 2.6% from September. Purchase loans grew by 2.1% to an average of $448,675, while refinance loans declined by 11.3% to $323,750. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) saw a modest decrease of 3.4% in average loan size from $1.19 million to $1.15 million. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Mortgage Activity Declines in October as Mortgage Rates Increase2024-11-06T13:16:48-06:00

Existing Home Sales Fall to 14-Year Low in September

2024-10-23T11:22:12-05:00

Despite recent easing mortgage rates and improved inventory, existing home sales fell to a 14-year low in September as elevated home prices are causing potential buyers to hold out for lower rates, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales remained sluggish as the lock-in effect kept home prices elevated. However, we expect increased activity in the coming months as mortgage rates moderate with additional Fed easing. Improving inventory should help slow home price growth and enhance affordability. Homeowners with lower mortgage rates have opted to stay put, avoiding trading existing mortgages for new ones with higher rates. This trend is driving home prices higher and holding back inventory. With the Federal Reserve beginning its easing cycle at the September meeting, mortgage rates are expected to gradually decrease, leading to increased demand and unlocking lock-in inventory in the coming quarters. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, fell 1.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September, the lowest level since October 2010. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 3.5% lower than a year ago. The first-time buyer share remained at 26% in September, matching the lowest level since November 2021 and August 2024, but down from 27% in September 2023. The existing home inventory level rose from 1.37 million in August to 1.39 million units in September and is up 23.0% from a year ago. At the current sales rate, September unsold inventory sits at a 4.3-months supply, up from 4.2-months last month and 3.4-months a year ago. This inventory level remains low compared to balanced market conditions (4.5 to 6 months’ supply) and illustrates the long-run need for more home construction. However, the count of single-family resale homes available for sale is up almost 22.2% on a year-over-year basis. Homes stayed on the market for an average of 28 days in September, up from 26 days in August and 21 days in September 2023. The September all-cash sales share was 30% of transactions, up from 26% in August and 29% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates. The September median sales price of all existing homes was $404,500, up 3.0% from last year. This marked the 15th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and the highest level for the month of September. The median condominium/co-op price in September was up 2.2% from a year ago at $361,600. This rate of price growth will slow as inventory increases. Existing home sales in September were mixed across the four major regions. In the Northeast, Midwest, and South, sales fell by 4.2%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively, while sales in the Midwest rose by 4.1%. On a year-over-year basis, sales decreased in the Northeast (-6.1%), Midwest (-5.3%) and South (-5.5%). Sales in the West increased 5.6% from a year ago. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI rose from 70.2 to 70.6 in August due to lower mortgage rates. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 3.0% lower than a year ago per National Association of Realtors data. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Existing Home Sales Fall to 14-Year Low in September2024-10-23T11:22:12-05:00

Refinancing Activity Continues to Climb in September

2024-10-02T11:16:02-05:00

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, rose 18.4% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, driven primarily by a surge in refinancing activity. Compared to September 2023, the index increased by 47%. The Market Composite Index which includes the Purchase and Refinance Indices saw monthly gains, rising by 8.6% and 29%, respectively. Year-over-year, the Purchase Index showed a modest increase of 1.9%, while the Refinance Index jumped 149.9%. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate continued its downward trajectory for the fifth consecutive month, with September seeing a decline of 31 basis points (bps), bringing the rate to 6.18%. This is 117 bps lower than the same time last year. Loan sizes also saw growth across the board. The average loan size for the total market (including purchases and refinances) was $400,450 on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis, an increase of 5.1% from August. Purchase loans grew by 3% to an average of $439,600, while refinance loans jumped by 11.6% to $363,825. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) saw an 8.2% increase in average loan size, rising from $1.1 million to $1.2 million. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Refinancing Activity Continues to Climb in September2024-10-02T11:16:02-05:00

Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September

2024-09-30T12:17:29-05:00

In September, mortgage rates maintained their downward trajectory, returning to levels last seen two years ago. According to Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.18%, a decline of 32 basis points (bps) from August. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage saw an even steeper decline, decreasing by 42 bps from August to 5.26%. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury rate declined by 23 bps, falling from 3.98% in August to 3.75%. According to the NAHB forecast, the 30-year mortgage rate is expected to near 6% on a sustained basis by the end of 2024, with a further decline to just below 6% during 2025. NAHB also predicts furthering easing by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2024. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Mortgage Rates Continue Downward Trend in September2024-09-30T12:17:29-05:00

Mortgage Rates Continued to Decline in August

2024-09-06T08:19:48-05:00

Mortgage rates continued to decrease in August, landing at an average rate of 6.50%. According to Freddie Mac, the average monthly rate fell by 35 basis points (bps) from July’s rate of 6.85%. The August rate is down 57 bps from one year ago, which stood at 7.07%. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also saw a decrease, dropping by 45 bps from July to 5.68%, and is now lower compared to last August by 75 bps. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury rate declined 30 bps from 4.28% in July to 3.98%. Per the NAHB forecast, we expect 30-year mortgage rates to decline slightly to around 6.66% at the end of 2024 and eventually to decline to just under 6% by the end of 2025. The NAHB outlook anticipates the federal funds rate to be cut by 25 bps no later than the December Federal Reserve meeting, although it is possible for the Fed to cut rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting in September. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Mortgage Rates Continued to Decline in August2024-09-06T08:19:48-05:00
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