In November, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 and the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%, from 3.9% in October. The labor market continues to moderate. The Fed held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row at the conclusion of its November meeting. This month’s employment data will be one of the key components in determining whether to hold the federal funds rate again at its December meeting. Given the cooling data, the bond market has seen a decline in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury rate falling below 4.2% as of early this week. Additionally, wage growth continued to slow. In November, wages grew at a 4.0% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. It marks the lowest YOY wage gain since June 2021, suggesting inflationary pressures are easing. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, following a gain of 150,000 in October, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000 from +297,000 to +262,000, while the October estimate remained at +150,000. Combined, the revisions took the original estimates down by 35,000. Despite restrictive monetary policy, more than 6 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In the first eleven months of 2023, nearly 2.6 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 232,000 per month, less than the average monthly growth of 399,000 in 2022. The unemployment rate declined to 3.7% in November as the labor force participation rate edged up. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 215,000, while the number of employed persons increased by 747,000. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, edged up 0.1 percentage point to 62.8% in November, reflecting the increase in the number of persons in the labor force (+736,000) and the decrease in the number of persons not in the labor force (-525,000). Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 remained unchanged at 83.3%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. For industry sectors, employment in health care (+77,000), government (+49,000), and leisure and hospitality (+40,000) increased. Employment in manufacturing increased by 28,000, reflecting an increase of 30,000 in motor vehicles and parts as workers returned from the auto strikes. Employment in retail trade declined. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 2,000 in November, following a 25,000 gain in October. While residential construction added 1,000 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 1,400 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in November, broken down as 934,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 6,717 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 53,000 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,321,500 positions. In November, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose 0.6 percentage points to 5.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. It marks the highest rate since July 2021 and has been trending up in the past five months, after reaching the lowest rate of 3.6% in June 2023. ‹ Share of Homes Built in Community Associations Edges Down AgainTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment, wage

Job growth remained solid in September as the Fed fights against inflation. In fact, the recent jobs data has been stronger than most economists expected and is a reminder that GDP growth for the third quarter will be very strong and inflation risks persist. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 and the unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in September. However, wage growth slowed. In September, wages grew at a 4.2% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.8 percentage points from the highest gain of 5.7% in February 2022. Slowing wage growth was the one positive data point for those hoping for slowing inflation in today’s labor market report. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 in September, following a gain of 227,000 in August, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The estimates for the previous two months were revised higher. The estimate for July was revised higher by 79,000 from +157,000 to +236,000, while the August increase was revised up by 40,000, from +187,000 to +227,000. Despite restrictive monetary policy, nearly 5.9 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In the first nine months of 2023, nearly 2.3 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 260,000 per month, following the average monthly growth of 399,000 in 2022. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in September. The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.4 million, while the number of employed persons increased by 86,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, remained unchanged at 62.8%. Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 was unchanged at 83.5%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. For industry sectors, employment in leisure and hospitality (+96,000), government (+73,000), health care (+41,000), professional, scientific, and technical services (+29,000), and social assistance (+25,000) increased. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 11,000 in September, following a 36,000 gain in August. While residential construction added 12,600 jobs, non-residential construction employment lost 1,300 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in September, broken down as 933,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 8,367 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 55,300 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,314,200 positions. In September, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Related ‹ Property Taxes by State – 2022Tags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment, wage

The recent employment data indicates that the labor market is cooling gradually due to rising interest rates. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%. Wage growth slowed. In August, wages grew at a 4.3% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.4% gain in August 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced the preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision, indicating March 2023 total nonfarm employment was revised down by 306,000 jobs, a 0.2% decrease from the previous release. Construction was revised up by 30,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised down by 43,000 jobs. The final revision will be issued in February 2024 with the publication of the January 2024 Employment Situation news release. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, following a gain of 157,000 in July, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The estimates for the previous two months were revised down. The estimate for June was revised lower by 80,000 from +185,000 to +105,000, while the July increase was revised down by 30,000, from +187,000 to +157,000. Despite restrictive monetary policy, nearly 5.4 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In the first eight months of 2023, nearly 1.9 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 236,000 per month, following the average monthly growth of 399,000 in 2022. The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.8% in August. The number of unemployed persons increased by 514,000 to nearly 6.4 million, while the number of employed persons increased by 222,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, rose 0.2 percentage points to 62.8%. Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 edged up 0.1 percentage point to 83.5%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. For industry sectors, employment in health care (+71,000), leisure and hospitality (+40,000), social assistance (+26,000), and construction (+22,000) continued to trend up in August, while transportation and warehousing lost 34,000 jobs. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 22,000 in August, following a 16,000 gain in July. While residential construction added 1,400 jobs, non-residential construction employment gained 21,000 jobs. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in August, broken down as 925,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 3,500 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 42,400 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,293,500 positions. In August, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 0.4 percentage points to 4.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Related ‹ 2022 Single-Family Starts by Census DivisionTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment, wage