Job Growth Surges in January

2024-02-02T11:24:32-06:00

The U.S. economy entered the new year with a strong gain in payroll employment and an unchanged unemployment rate. Job gains in November and December were much stronger than initially estimated, according to revisions of the establishment survey data. January’s jobs report shows that the job market remains unexpectedly strong despite the impact of the highest interest rates in two decades. The estimates confirm that the Fed will not be in a rush to cut interest rates in March. Additionally, wage growth showed strength in January. On a year-over-year basis (YOY), wages grew 4.5% in January, stronger than an upwardly revised 4.3% in December but lower than the roughly 6% in the beginning of 2022. Wage growth is positive if matched by productivity growth. If not, it can be a sign of lingering inflation. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 353,000 in January, faster than the upwardly revised increase of 333,000 jobs in December, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. It was the biggest monthly gain in the past twelve months. The estimates for the previous two months were revised higher. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 9,000, from +173,000 to +182,000, while December was revised up by 117,000 from +216,000 to +333,000. Combined, the revisions were 126,000 higher than the original estimates. Despite restrictive monetary policy, about 6.8 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In January, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% for the third consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons and employed persons showed little change. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, was unchanged at 62.5%. Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people aged between 25 and 54 rose 0.1 percentage point to 83.3%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. January’s job gains were broad-based across sectors, led by professional and business services (+74,000), health care (+70,000), retail trade (+45,000), and social assistance (+30,000). Meanwhile, employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 5,000. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 11,000 in January, following an upwardly revised 24,000 gains in December. While residential construction added 2,700 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 7,600 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in January, broken down into 938,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 5,083 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 60,100 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,350,300 positions. In January, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 0.7 percentage points to 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ‹ Private Residential Construction Spending Grows for Third Straight MonthTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Job Growth Surges in January2024-02-02T11:24:32-06:00

Solid Job Growth in 2023

2024-01-05T12:33:52-06:00

December’s jobs report concludes another solid year of job hiring in 2023. In December, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% for the second month. Job gains moderated in 2023 with an average 225,000 monthly employment growth but remained strong. In December, wage growth accelerated to a 4.1% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, up from 4.0% in November and down 0.7 percentage points from a year ago. The total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 216,000 in December was followed by two previous months of revisions, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 26,000, from +199,000 to +173,000, while October was revised down by 45,000 from +150,000 to +105,000. Combined, the revisions took the original estimates down by 71,000. Despite restrictive monetary policy, more than 6 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In 2023, 2.7 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 225,000 per month, less than the average monthly growth of 399,000 in 2022 and 606,000 in 2021. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in December as the labor force participation rate edged down. The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged, while the number of employed persons decreased by 683,000. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 62.5%, marking its lowest rate since February 2023. December’s decrease in the labor force participation rate reflects the decrease in the number of persons in the labor force (-676,000) and the increase in the number of persons not in the labor force (+845,000). Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people  aged between 25 and 54 edged down to 83.2%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people  aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. The government (+52,000), health care (+38,000), social assistance (+21,000), and construction (+17,000) sectors led December’s job gains, while transportation and warehousing shed 23,000 jobs in December. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 17,000 in December, following a 6,000 gain in November. While residential construction added 5,500 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 11,900 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in December, broken down into 936,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 4,000 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 40,100 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,316,800 positions. In December, the unemployment rate for construction workers dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 4.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ‹ Employment Situation in November: State-Level AnalysisTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Solid Job Growth in 20232024-01-05T12:33:52-06:00

Job Growth Remains Moderate in November

2023-12-08T10:19:58-06:00

In November, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 and the unemployment rate declined to 3.7%, from 3.9% in October. The labor market continues to moderate. The Fed held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row at the conclusion of its November meeting. This month’s employment data will be one of the key components in determining whether to hold the federal funds rate again at its December meeting. Given the cooling data, the bond market has seen a decline in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury rate falling below 4.2% as of early this week. Additionally, wage growth continued to slow. In November, wages grew at a 4.0% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. It marks the lowest YOY wage gain since June 2021, suggesting inflationary pressures are easing. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, following a gain of 150,000 in October, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised down by 35,000 from +297,000 to +262,000, while the October estimate remained at +150,000. Combined, the revisions took the original estimates down by 35,000. Despite restrictive monetary policy, more than 6 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In the first eleven months of 2023, nearly 2.6 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 232,000 per month, less than the average monthly growth of 399,000 in 2022. The unemployment rate declined to 3.7% in November as the labor force participation rate edged up. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 215,000, while the number of employed persons increased by 747,000. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, edged up 0.1 percentage point to 62.8% in November, reflecting the increase in the number of persons in the labor force (+736,000) and the decrease in the number of persons not in the labor force (-525,000). Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 remained unchanged at 83.3%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people who aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. For industry sectors, employment in health care (+77,000), government (+49,000), and leisure and hospitality (+40,000) increased. Employment in manufacturing increased by 28,000, reflecting an increase of 30,000 in motor vehicles and parts as workers returned from the auto strikes. Employment in retail trade declined. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 2,000 in November, following a 25,000 gain in October. While residential construction added 1,000 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 1,400 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in November, broken down as 934,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 6,717 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 53,000 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,321,500 positions. In November, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose 0.6 percentage points to 5.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis. It marks the highest rate since July 2021 and has been trending up in the past five months, after reaching the lowest rate of 3.6% in June 2023. ‹ Share of Homes Built in Community Associations Edges Down AgainTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment, wage

Job Growth Remains Moderate in November2023-12-08T10:19:58-06:00

Job Openings Fall – But Not For Construction

2023-12-05T11:15:31-06:00

The bond market appears to be responding to cooling macroeconomic data, including labor market reporting, as long-term rates fall back. Among the risk factors that previously led to higher interest rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth data for the third quarter) was an ongoing, elevated count of open jobs for the overall economy. However, the number of open jobs is falling. In October, the number of open jobs for the economy declined to 8.7 million. This is notably lower than the 10.5 million reported a year ago. NAHB estimates indicate that this number must fall back below 8 million for the Federal Reserve to feel more comfortable about labor market conditions and their potential impacts on inflation. While the Fed intends for higher interest rates to have an impact on the demand-side of the economy, the ultimate solution for the labor shortage will not be found by slowing worker demand, but by recruiting, training and retaining skilled workers. This is where the risk of a monetary policy mistake can be found. Good news for the labor market does not automatically imply bad news for inflation. The construction labor market remained tight in October. The count of open construction jobs was steady at 423,000 in October after a revised reading of 427,000 in September. The count was 398,000 a year ago, during a period of housing market cooling. These estimates come after a data series high of 488,000 in December 2022. Despite recent tightness, the overall trend is one of cooling for open construction sector jobs as the housing market remains off peak levels and backlog is reduced, with a notable uptick in month-to-month volatility since late last year. The construction job openings rate was steady at 5% in October. The recent trend of these estimates points to the construction labor market having peaked in 2022 and is now entering a stop-start cooling stage as the housing market adjusts to higher interest rates. But the relatively elevated rate of construction job openings reflects the ongoing skilled labor shortage. The housing market remains underbuilt and requires additional labor, lots and lumber and building materials to add inventory. Hiring in the construction sector increased to a 4.7% rate in October after 3.9% in September. The post-virus peak rate of hiring occurred in May 2020 (10.4%) as a post-covid rebound took hold in home building and remodeling. Construction sector layoffs were steady at a 2% rate in October after 2% in September. In April 2020, the layoff rate was 10.8%. Since that time, the sector layoff rate has been below 3%, with the exception of February 2021 due to weather effects and March 2023 due to some market churn. Looking forward, attracting skilled labor will remain a key objective for construction firms in the coming years. While a slowing housing market will take some pressure off tight labor markets, the long-term labor challenge will persist beyond the ongoing macro slowdown. ‹ Amidst Housing Slowdown, Exurban Areas Post Largest Construction GainsTags: economics, employment, home building, housing, JOLTS

Job Openings Fall – But Not For Construction2023-12-05T11:15:31-06:00

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