Moving Out of Parental Homes is On Hold

2025-01-20T08:18:45-06:00

The worst on record rental affordability conditions, depleted “excess” savings of the pandemic era, and high mortgage rates halted the post-pandemic trend of young adults moving out of parental homes. The share of adults ages 25-34 living with parents or parents-in-law hovered just above 19% in 2023, stagnant from 2022, according to NAHB’s analysis of the 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). While this percentage is the second lowest since 2011, the share remains elevated by historical standards. Regionally, Southern and Northeastern states register some of the highest shares of young adults remaining in parental homes. Traditionally, young adults ages 25 to 34 make up around half of all first-time homebuyers. Consequently, the number and share of young adults in this age group that choose to stay with their parents, or parents-in-law, has profound implications for household formation, housing demand, and the housing market. The current share of 19.2% translates into 8.5 million young adults living in homes of their parents or parents-in-law. In contrast, less than 12% of young adults ages 25 to 34, or 4.6 million, lived with parents in 2000. The share peaked in 2017-2018 at 22% when the ACS recorded over 9.7 million adults ages 25 to 34 living with parents. While the national average share hovers around 19.2%, more than a quarter of young adults ages 25-34 remain in parental homes in California (26.5%), New Jersey (26.3%), and Hawaii (25.2%). Delaware (23.2%), Maryland (22.7%), Florida (22.4%) and New York (21.8%) are next on the list. At the opposite end of the spectrum are states with less than one in ten young adults living with parents. The fast-growing North Dakota records the nation’s lowest share of 5%, while the neighboring South Dakota registers 7%. In the District of Columbia, known for its relatively stable job market, less than 7.5% of young adults live with their parents. The cluster of central US states completes the nation’s list with the lowest percentages of young adults remaining in parental homes – Nebraska (8.4%), Iowa (8.5), and Wyoming (9.6%). The elevated shares of young adults living with parents in high-cost coastal areas point to prohibitively expensive housing costs as one of the reasons for keeping young adults in parental homes. The statistical analysis confirms that states with higher shares of cost-burdened owners and renters living in unaffordable homes (i.e., paying 30 percent or more of income on housing) register higher shares of young adults living with parents. In particular, renters’ housing cost burdensexplain half of the cross-state variation in the shares of young adults living in parental homes. Multigeneration living, which is more prevalent among ethnic households, can also contribute to the elevated shares of young adults living with parents. This can be particularly relevant in the Southern states with higher shares of Hispanic households. However, the statistical analysis shows that while the correlation is positive, prevalence of Hispanic households does not carry any additional explanatory power once housing cost burdens are accounted for. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Moving Out of Parental Homes is On Hold2025-01-20T08:18:45-06:00

Single-Family Permits Up in November 2024  

2025-01-15T09:23:24-06:00

Over the first eleven months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 912,910. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 8.2% over the November 2023 level of 843,654. Year-to-date ending in November, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 11.5% in the Midwest to 6.3% in the South. The West was up by 11.4% and the Northeast was up by 9.4% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York City’s MSA, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 32.6%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 29.7%, the South declined by 19.6%, and the Midwest declined by 3.1%. Between November 2024 YTD and November 2023 YTD, 44 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 31.4% in Montana to 2.6% in Missouri. The remining six states and the District of Columbia reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 146,843 permits over the first eleven months of 2024, which is an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 0.3%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 7.0%. Year-to-date ending in November, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 445,357. This is 14.5% below the November 2023 level of 520,919. Between November 2024 YTD and November 2023 YTD, 21 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 29 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+113.8%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 14,544 to 31,098, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 54.3% from 5,469 to 2,497. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.3% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first eleven months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 21.3%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 25.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 32.0%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Permits Up in November 2024  2025-01-15T09:23:24-06:00

State-Level Employment Situation: November 2024

2024-12-23T13:15:43-06:00

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 38 states and the District of Columbia in November compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 12 states. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in November, following a meager gain of 32,000 jobs in October. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in Florida, which added 61,500 jobs, rebounding from the hurricanes that hit the sunshine state in October. Washington came in second (+30,900), followed by North Carolina (+15,000). A total of 20,300 jobs were lost across 12 states, with Colorado reporting the steepest job losses at 3,900. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in Washington at 0.9%, while Vermont saw the biggest decline at 0.3% between October and November. Year-over-year ending in November, 2.3 million jobs have been added to the labor market across 49 states and the District of Columbia. This is a 1.4% increase compared to November 2023 level. South Dakota reported no change. The range of job gains spanned from 2,900 jobs in West Virginia to 274,300 jobs in Texas. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 3.1% in Idaho to 0.3% in Iowa. Across the nation, construction sector jobs data 1—which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 23 states and the District of Columbia reported an increase in November compared to October, while 23 states lost construction sector jobs. The four remaining states reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Florida, with the highest increase, added 7,600 construction jobs, while Indiana, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 3,400 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 10,000 jobs in November compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Minnesota reported the highest increase at 2.1% and Indiana reported the largest decline at 2.0%. Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 211,000, which is a 2.6% increase compared to the November 2023 level. Texas added 32,200 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while California lost 11,500 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, Alaska had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 20.3%. Over this period, Maryland reported the largest decline of 2.3%. For this analysis, BLS combined employment totals for mining, logging, and construction are treated as construction employment for the District of Columbia, Delaware, and Hawaii. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

State-Level Employment Situation: November 20242024-12-23T13:15:43-06:00

2024 Third Quarter State-Level GDP Data

2024-12-20T13:15:22-06:00

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 45 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2024 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Iowa reported no change during this time. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 6.9 percent increase at an annual rate in Arkansas to a 2.3 percent decline in North Dakota. Nationwide, growth in real GDP (measured on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis) increased 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, which is roughly the same as the second quarter level of 3.0 percent. Retail trade, health care and social assistance, and information were the leading contributors to the increase in real GDP across the country. Regionally, real GDP growth increased in all eight regions between the second and the third quarter. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 3.9 percent increase in the Southwest region (Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) to a 1.4 percent increase in the Plains region (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota). At the state level, Arkansas posted the highest GDP growth rate (6.9 percent) followed by Alabama (6.0 percent) and Mississippi (5.1 percent). On the other hand, three out of the seven states that makes up and Plains region, South Dakota (-0.8 percent), Nebraska (-1.4 percent), and North Dakota (-2.3 percent) along with Montana (-0.1 percent) posted an economic contraction in the third quarter of 2024. The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry increased in 25 states, was the leading contributor to growth in five states including Arkansas, Alabama, and Mississippi, the states with the largest increases in real GDP. In contrast, this industry was the leading offset to growth in 14 states including North Dakota, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana, the only states with declines in real GDP. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

2024 Third Quarter State-Level GDP Data2024-12-20T13:15:22-06:00

Single-Family Permits Up in October 2024  

2024-12-16T09:17:34-06:00

Over the first ten months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 846,446. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 9.4% over the October 2023 level of 773,526. Year-to-date ending in October, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 13.6% in the West to 7.2% in the South. The Midwest was up by 12.4% and the Northeast was up by 10.8% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 26.6%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 30.1%, the South declined by 21.4%, and the Midwest declined by 5.0%. Between October 2024 YTD and October 2023 YTD, 46 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 33.0% in Montana to 0.7% in Florida. New Mexico (-1.3%), the District of Columbia (1.4%), New Hampshire (-2.6%), Alaska (-4.4%), and Hawaii (-5.2%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 136,374 permits over the first ten months of 2024, which is an increase of 9.7% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was up by 0.7%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 7.9%. Year-to-date ending in October, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 403,422. This is 16.2% below the October 2023 level of 481,612. Between October 2024 YTD and October 2023 YTD, 19 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 31 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Rhode Island (+143.5%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 322 to 784, while Idaho had the biggest decline of 56.6% from 4,899 to 2,126. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 62.9% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first ten months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 24.6%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 26.4%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 31.2%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Permits Up in October 2024  2024-12-16T09:17:34-06:00

State-Level Employment Situation: October 2024

2024-11-19T14:19:04-06:00

Clouded by hurricanes in the southeast part of the country and strike activity in the manufacturing sector, October nonfarm payroll figures were mediocre. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 21 states in October compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 29 states and the District of Columbia. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by a meager 12,000 in October, following a gain of 223,000 jobs in September. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in Colorado, which added 9,000 jobs. Louisiana came in second (+7,700), followed by Ohio (+6,400). A total of 144,500 jobs were lost across 29 states and the District of Columbia, with Florida reporting the steepest job losses at 38,000. Washington lost 35,900 jobs while New York lost a total of 10,900 jobs. In percentage terms, employment increased the highest in South Dakota at 0.4%, while Washington saw the biggest decline at 1.0% between September and October. Year-over-year ending in October, 2.2 million jobs have been added to the labor market across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. This is a 1.4% increase compared to October 2023 level. The range of job gains spanned from 2,800 jobs in Wyoming to 274,600 jobs in Texas. In percentage terms, the range of job growth spanned 3.1% in Idaho to 0.4% in Washington. Across the nation, construction sector jobs data 1—which includes both residential and non-residential construction—showed that 33 states and the District of Columbia reported an increase in October compared to September, while 13 states lost construction sector jobs. The four remaining states reported no change on a month-over-month basis. Louisiana, with the highest increase, added 3,400 construction jobs, while Florida, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 5,400 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 8,000 jobs in October compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, Louisiana reported the highest increase at 2.5% and Iowa reported the largest decline at 2.1%. Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 223,000, which is a 2.8% increase compared to the October 2023 level. Texas added 38,800 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while New York lost 9,200 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, Alaska had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 19.1%. Over this period, Oregon reported the largest decline of 4.3%. For this analysis, BLS combined employment totals for mining, logging, and construction are treated as construction employment for the District of Columbia, Delaware, and Hawaii. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

State-Level Employment Situation: October 20242024-11-19T14:19:04-06:00

Single-Family Permits Higher in September 2024  

2024-11-15T09:16:15-06:00

Over the first nine months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 763,990. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 10.1% over the September 2023 level of 693,908. Year-to-date ending in September, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 15.8% in the West to 7.8% in the South. The Midwest was up by 11.8% and the Northeast was up by 10.1% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 30.1%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 31.7%, the South declined by 20.7%, and the Midwest declined by 8.4%. Between September 2024 YTD and September 2023 YTD, 46 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 43.6% in New Mexico to 0.4% in Oregon. Maryland (-1.5%), New Hampshire (-1.6%), Alaska (-4.3%), and Hawaii (-7.7%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.1% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 122,976 permits over the first nine months of 2024, which is an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 1.7%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 8.5%. Year-to-date ending in September, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 362,543. This is 16.4% below the September 2023 level of 433,862. Between September 2024 YTD and September 2023 YTD, 17 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Georgia reported no change. Rhode Island (+134.6%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 309 to 725, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 70.5% from 2,600 to 766. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.2% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first nine months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 27.5%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 27.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 33.4%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Permits Higher in September 2024  2024-11-15T09:16:15-06:00
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