Unaffordable Prices Are Back on Top as Most Common Reason Buyers Can’t Make Purchase

2023-02-01T09:16:49-06:00

By Rose Quint on February 1, 2023 • An earlier post revealed that 65% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the fourth quarter of 2022 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. The inability to find an affordable home (45%) is the most common reason buyers looking for 3+ months can’t make a purchase.  In second place follow the inability to find a home in a desirable neighborhood and getting outbid by other buyers (tied at 30%). When asked what they are most likely to do next if still unable to find a home in the next few months, 46% of active buyers searching for 3+ months said they will continue looking for the ‘right’ home in the same location (down from 50% a quarter earlier); 38% will expand their search area (up from 35%), 23% will accept a smaller/older home (down from 33%), and 16% will buy a more expensive home (down from 28%). Meanwhile, the share who plan to give up their home search until next year or later fell to 21%, down from 28% in the third quarter. This is the first time the share has declined in six quarters. **Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the final in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 1st quarter of 2022. Related ‹ Fourth Quarter of 2022 Homeownership Rate at 65.9%Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

Unaffordable Prices Are Back on Top as Most Common Reason Buyers Can’t Make Purchase2023-02-01T09:16:49-06:00

Fewer Prospective Buyers Are Fully Engaged in Purchase Process

2023-01-31T09:21:23-06:00

By Rose Quint on January 31, 2023 • Dwindling housing affordability in the fourth quarter of 2022 caused the share of prospective home buyers who are actively engaged in the purchase process (i.e. who have moved beyond just the planning phase) to drop to 46%, down from 59% a quarter earlier. The share of prospective buyers fully engaged in the buying process declined in every region between the third and fourth quarters of 2022: Northeast (62% to 50%), Midwest (53% to 42%), South (51% to 47%), and West (68% to 44%). After reaching a record high of 70% in the third quarter of 2022, the share of active buyers who have spent 3+ months searching for a home to buy eased a bit in the fourth quarter, down to 65%.  As demand has weakened, competition is letting up slightly for those still willing and able to buy a home. * Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the fifth in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 4th quarter of 2022.  Related ‹ Housing Affordability Goes SouthTags: housing economics, housing trends report

Fewer Prospective Buyers Are Fully Engaged in Purchase Process2023-01-31T09:21:23-06:00

Housing Affordability Goes South

2023-01-30T09:18:23-06:00

By Rose Quint on January 30, 2023 • Buyers’ outlook for housing affordability took a sharp negative turn in the final quarter of 2022, when a record high of 87% reported being able to afford fewer than 50% of the homes for-sale in their markets.  The remaining 13% can afford the majority of homes available, less than half the 31% who could in the third quarter. Affordability expectations between the third and fourth quarters of 2022 worsened in all regions.  The share of buyers able to afford less than half the homes available in their markets rose in the Northeast, from 66% to 89%; in the Midwest, from 83% to 84%; in the South, from 77% to 83%, and in the West, from 58% to 87%. * Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the fourth in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 4th quarter of 2022.   Related ‹ How Pandemic Changed Living Arrangements of Young AdultsTags: housing affordability, housing economics, housing trends report

Housing Affordability Goes South2023-01-30T09:18:23-06:00

Buyers Expect Less Housing Availability

2023-01-27T09:16:26-06:00

By Rose Quint on January 27, 2023 • After a brief respite earlier in 2022, buyers’ expectations of housing availability soured again at the end of the year.  In the final quarter of 2022, the share of buyers who expect the home search to get easier in the months ahead dropped to 24%, down from 37% in the third quarter. In contrast, 66% expect the search to get harder/stay the same, up from 59%. Housing availability expectations deteriorated in three regions of the country.  In the Northeast, the share of buyers expecting an easier home search in the months ahead dropped from 44% in the third quarter to 28% in the fourth quarter.  In the Midwest, the share dropped from 33% to 19%; and in the West, from 52% to 27%.  The share edged up in the South, from 23% to 24%. Another way to measure buyers’ perceptions of housing inventory is to ask them if they are seeing more/fewer/the same number of homes for-sale (with desired features and price point) in their markets.  By this measure, buyers’ perceptions also worsened.  In the final quarter of 2022, 30% of buyers were seeing more such homes available, down from 36% a quarter earlier. Inventory perceptions weakened across all regions.  From the third to the final quarter of 2022, the share of buyers seeing more homes (with desired features and price point) on the market fell in the Northeast (43% to 26%), Midwest (30% to 23%), the South (33% to 32%), and West (42% to 31%). * Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the third in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 4th quarter of 2022.  See previous post on plans to buy and new vs. existing preferences. Related ‹ New Home Sales Uptick in December But Market Weakness RemainsTags: housing availability, housing economics, housing trends report

Buyers Expect Less Housing Availability2023-01-27T09:16:26-06:00

Popularity of New Homes Declines in Final Quarter of 2022

2023-01-25T09:14:25-06:00

By Rose Quint on January 25, 2023 • Interest for new home construction weakened in the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by high mortgage rates and elevated new home prices.  The latest Housing Trends Report (HTR) shows that the share of prospective buyers looking to buy new construction dropped to 20% in the final quarter of 2022, down from 27% a quarter earlier. The latest decline in interest for new homes happened nationwide. From the third to the final quarter of 2022, the share of prospective buyers looking to purchase a new home fell in all four regions, most prominently in the West (31% to 21%), but also in the Northeast (27% to 20%), Midwest (18% to 15%), and South (26% to 20%). * Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the second in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 4th quarter of 2022.  See previous post on plans to buy. Related ‹ Employment Situation in December: State-Level AnalysisTags: housing economics, housing trends report

Popularity of New Homes Declines in Final Quarter of 20222023-01-25T09:14:25-06:00

Fewer Adults are Planning a Home Purchase

2023-01-23T09:18:17-06:00

By Rose Quint on January 23, 2023 • The share of adults planning a home purchase in the next 12 months dropped to 13% in the final quarter of 2022, down from 15% in the previous quarter.  The drop is not surprising, given that housing affordability worsened during this period, as mortgage interest rates surpassed 7.0% and reached levels not seen in nearly 20 years. In the third quarter of 2022, as buyers tried to stay ahead of further interest rate hikes, the share of prospective buyers contemplating a home purchase for the first time spiked to 66%.  In the fourth quarter, as rates did in fact reach levels not seen since 2002, the share dropped again, to 61%. The share of adults with plans to buy a home within a year changed unevenly across regions from the third to the final quarter of 2022, dropping in the Northeast (15% to 11%) and West (20% to 14%), staying flat in the South (at 14%), and edging up in the MW (9% to 10%). Over half of all prospective buyers in every region are first-time buyers. From the third to the fourth quarters of 2022, however, the 1st-timer share dropped in three regions: the Northeast (70% to 64%), the South (66% to 60%), and the West (70% to 62%).  Meanwhile, and for the second quarter in a row, the share edged up slightly in the Midwest, from 56% to 58%. ** Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the first in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 4th quarter of 2022. Related ‹ Existing Home Sales End 2022 with Weakest Year Since 2014Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

Fewer Adults are Planning a Home Purchase2023-01-23T09:18:17-06:00

Bidding Wars Jump as Top Reason (Remaining) Buyers Can’t Make Purchase

2022-11-02T09:20:49-05:00

By Rose Quint on November 2, 2022 • An earlier post revealed that a record 70% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the third quarter of 2022 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. Those buyers also have higher incomes and education levels than in previous quarters.  The most common reason these long-term searchers cite for not having bought by now is they are getting outbid by other offers (54%).  In second place is the inability to find an affordable home (39%), followed by not being able to find a home in their desired neighborhood (30%). When asked what they are most likely to do next if still unable to find a home in the next few months, 50% of active buyers searching for 3+ months said they will continue looking for the ‘right’ home in the same location (up from 46% a quarter earlier); 35% will expand their search area (down from 38%), 33% will accept a smaller/older home (up from 30%), and 28% will buy a more expensive home (up from 26%). Meanwhile, the share who plan to give up their home search until next year or later climbed to 28%, up from 25% in the second quarter of 2022. This share has increased or remained flat in each of the past five quarters. ** Results come from the Housing Trends Report– a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the final post in a series of six highlighting results for the 3rd quarter of 2022. See previous posts on plans to buy, new vs. existing preference, housing availability, housing affordability, and active buyers. Related ‹ September Private Residential Spending Stays FlatTags: housing economics, housing trends report

Bidding Wars Jump as Top Reason (Remaining) Buyers Can’t Make Purchase2022-11-02T09:20:49-05:00

Affordability Expectations Improve as the Typical Buyer Changes

2022-10-31T09:17:12-05:00

By Rose Quint on October 31, 2022 • Prospective buyers in the third quarter of 2022 are more likely to have higher levels of income and education than earlier in the year.  This helps explain why affordability expectations have improved.  In the third quarter of 2022, 69% of buyers could only afford a minority of homes for sale in their markets, a much lower share than in the first (81%) or second (77%) quarters of the year.  Conversely, the share able to afford at least half the homes available rose to 31%, up from 19% and 23% in the first two quarters of the year. Affordability expectations between the second and third quarters of 2022 improved in all regions.  In the Northeast, the share of buyers only able to afford a minority of homes dropped from 73% to 66%; in the Midwest, from 84% to 83%; in the South, from 82% to 77%, and in the West, from 70% to 58%.   **Results come from the Housing Trends Report– a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the fourth in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 3rd quarter of 2022. See previous posts on plans to buy, new vs. existing preference, and housing availability. Related ‹ All-Cash New Home Sales Outnumber FHA-Backed for the First Time Since 2007Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

Affordability Expectations Improve as the Typical Buyer Changes2022-10-31T09:17:12-05:00

Buyers’ Expectations of Housing Availability Continue to Improve

2022-10-28T09:17:39-05:00

By Rose Quint on October 28, 2022 • For the second straight quarter, more prospective buyers expect housing availability to improve. In the third quarter of 2022, 37% of buyers expect the home search to get easier in the months ahead, up from 17% and 22% in the first and second quarters of the year, respectively. More for-sale inventory and less competition from buyers priced-out by higher mortgage rates are likely driving the improvement. In contrast, 59% expect the search to get harder/stay the same, down from 74% and 67% in the first two quarters of 2022. Housing availability expectations improved in all regions of the country in the third quarter of 2022. In the Northeast, 44% of buyers expect easier conditions, up from 28% in the second quarter. In the Midwest, the share rose from 14% to 33%; in the South, from 18% to 23%; and in the West, from 31% to 52%. Another way to measure buyers’ perceptions of housing inventory is to ask them if they are seeing more/fewer/the same number of homes for-sale* in their markets. In the third quarter of 2022, 36% reported seeing more homes, up from 23% and 28% in the first two quarters of the year. Inventory perceptions have improved across all regions. From the second to the third quarters of 2022, the share of buyers seeing more homes on the market rose in the Northeast (27% to 43%), Midwest (23% to 30%), the South (24% to 33%), and West (36% to 42%). ** Results come from the Housing Trends Report – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets. The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time. All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult. Results are seasonally adjusted. A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the third in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 3rd quarter of 2022. See previous posts on plans to buy and new vs. existing preference. Related ‹ Economic Growth and Signs of Cooling Inflation in Third QuarterTags: housing availability, housing economics, housing trends report

Buyers’ Expectations of Housing Availability Continue to Improve2022-10-28T09:17:39-05:00

More Buyers Taking a Look at New Construction

2022-10-26T19:15:13-05:00

By Rose Quint on October 25, 2022 • After bottoming out at 19% in the first quarter of 2022, the popularity of new homes continues to rebound, as the share of buyers looking for new construction rose to 21% and 27% in the second and third quarters of the year, respectively.  A possible factor behind this trend is that the inventory of new homes for-sale is 25% higher than a year ago, while the supply of existing homes on the market is unchanged. The recent increase in interest for new homes is countrywide.  From the second to the third quarters of 2022, the share of prospective buyers looking to purchase a new home rose in all four regions: Northeast (18% to 27%), Midwest (12% to 18%), South (20% to 26%), and West (30% to 31%). ** Results come from the Housing Trends Report – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the second in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 3rd quarter of 2022.  See previous post on plans to buy. Related ‹ Prospect of Higher Rates Leads Some to Consider Buying a HomeNew Home Sales Fall Back in September ›Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

More Buyers Taking a Look at New Construction2022-10-26T19:15:13-05:00

About My Work

Phasellus non ante ac dui sagittis volutpat. Curabitur a quam nisl. Nam est elit, congue et quam id, laoreet consequat erat. Aenean porta placerat efficitur. Vestibulum et dictum massa, ac finibus turpis.

Recent Works

Recent Posts