Affordability Pyramid Shows 94 Million Households Cannot Buy a $400,000 Home 

2025-03-31T09:20:54-05:00

NAHB recently released its 2025 Priced-Out Analysis, highlighting the housing affordability challenge. While previous posts discussed the impacts of rising home prices and interest rates on affordability, this post focuses on the related U.S. housing affordability pyramid. The pyramid reveals that 70% of households (94 million) cannot afford a $400,000 home, while the estimated median price of a new home is around $460,000 in 2025. The housing affordability pyramid illustrates the number of households able to purchase a home at various price steps. Each step represents the number of households that can only afford homes within that specific price range. The largest share of households falls within the first step, where homes are priced under $200,000. As home prices increase, fewer and fewer households can afford the next price level, with the highest-priced homes—those over $2 million—having the smallest number of potential buyers. Housing affordability remains a critical challenge for households with income at the lower end of the spectrum. The pyramid is based on income thresholds and underwriting standards. Under these assumptions, the minimum income required to purchase a $200,000 home at the mortgage rate of 6.5% is $61,487. In 2025, about 52.87 million households in the U.S. are estimated to have incomes no more than that threshold and, therefore, can only afford to buy homes priced up to $200,000. These 52.87 million households form the bottom step of the pyramid. Of the remaining households who can afford a home priced at $200,000, 23.53 million can only afford to pay a top price of somewhere between $200,000 and $300,000. These households make up the second step on the pyramid. Each subsequent step narrows further, reflecting the shrinking number of households that can afford increasingly expensive homes. It is worthwhile to compare the number of households that can afford homes at various price levels and the number of owner-occupied homes available in those ranges (excludes homes built-for-rent), as shown in Figure 2. For example, while around 53 million households can afford a home priced at $200,000 or less, there are only 22 million owner-occupied homes valued in this price range. This trend continues in the $200,000 to $300,000 price range, where the number of households that can afford homes is much higher than the number of housing units in that range. These imbalances show a shortage of affordable housing. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Affordability Pyramid Shows 94 Million Households Cannot Buy a $400,000 Home 2025-03-31T09:20:54-05:00

Have a Strong Plan for Chemical Safety and Hazard Communication

2025-03-28T13:15:21-05:00

Hazardous chemicals are found everywhere on a home building site and in many commonly used products, such as paints, cleaners, and adhesives. Providing easy-to-read information about their identity and hazards can keep everyone on the job site safe.

Have a Strong Plan for Chemical Safety and Hazard Communication2025-03-28T13:15:21-05:00

How Mortgage Rates Affect Housing Affordability

2025-03-27T14:16:27-05:00

As housing affordability remains a critical challenge across the country, mortgage rates continue to play a central role in shaping home-buying power. Even slight declines can have a significant impact on housing affordability, pricing more households back into the market.

How Mortgage Rates Affect Housing Affordability2025-03-27T14:16:27-05:00

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Early March Drop

2025-03-27T12:15:38-05:00

Mortgage rates dropped significantly at the start of March before stabilizing, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 6.65%, according to Freddie Mac. This marks a 19-basis-point (bps) decline from February. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by 20 bps to 5.83%. The drop in long-term borrowing costs was driven by a 24-bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which averaged 4.28% in March. This decline provided a boost to the housing market—new home sales increased 5.1% year-over-year in February, while the participation of first-time homebuyer of existing homes rose 26% over the same period. However, existing home sales saw a slight dip from last February. The decrease in Treasury yields reflects growing concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly as shifts in tariff policy weaken consumer confidence. Despite this, the labor market remained resilient in February, posting steady job gains even as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly. The strength of upcoming jobs reports will be critical in assessing whether recession risks are intensifying. At the latest FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but revised its 2025 economic projections: expected GDP growth was lowered to 1.7% (down from 2.1% in December 2024) and the projected unemployment rate was raised to 4.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from previous estimates. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady After Early March Drop2025-03-27T12:15:38-05:00

FinCEN Narrows Beneficial Ownership Reporting Requirements to Foreign Entities

2025-03-27T09:15:27-05:00

In a win for NAHB and the small business community, the U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) published an interim final rule on beneficial ownership information (BOI) reporting requirements that narrows the BOI reporting requirements to foreign reporting companies only.

FinCEN Narrows Beneficial Ownership Reporting Requirements to Foreign Entities2025-03-27T09:15:27-05:00

How Outdated Land Data Hurts Home Builder Profits

2025-03-26T13:17:58-05:00

The home building industry has embraced cutting-edge tools — from AI-generated designs to offsite modular construction. But when it comes to acquiring land, many firms are still stuck using outdated tools built for a different era.

How Outdated Land Data Hurts Home Builder Profits2025-03-26T13:17:58-05:00

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