Apartment Completions Rise Resulting in Slower Absorption Rates

2024-11-27T09:19:29-06:00

The percentage of new apartment units that were absorbed within three months of completion rose from 50% to 55% in the second quarter of 2024, according to the Census Bureau’s latest release of the Survey of Market Absorption of New Multifamily Units (SOMA). The survey covers new units in multifamily residential buildings with five or more units. Meanwhile, the absorption rate within three months for condominiums and cooperative units fell over the quarter, from 80% to 66%. Apartments The percentage of apartments absorbed within three months has fallen significantly from its peak of 75% in the third quarter of 2021, as shown in the graph above. Currently, the rate stands at 55% which is coupled with an uptick in completions, as the SOMA estimates show a new high of completions at 118,600 units in the second quarter of 2024. This is well above the level of completions a year ago, which stood at 83,140. The pace of multifamily units being completed has picked up, as many units under construction over the past year are reaching the market. Since the first quarter of 2022, completions have been above 75,000 for nine consecutive quarters, as seen in the graph below.  The level of completions has also risen for the past three quarters. Along with the three-month absorption rate and completions, SOMA reports absorption rates within six-months, nine-months, and 12-months of completion. The absorption rates for all time periods follow similar downward trends as the number of apartments completed has ticked upwards over the past two years. For apartments completed in the 1st quarter of 2024, the absorption rate within six months of completion was 75%, down from a peak of 88% in the third quarter of 2021 but up from 69% the previous quarter. For the nine-month period, the absorption rate of apartments completed in the fourth quarter of 2023 fell to 83% down for the third consecutive quarter. This rate also peaked at 96% in the same quarter as the other periods, the third quarter of 2021. Finally, apartment units completed in the third quarter of 2023 were 93% absorbed within a year following completion. The trend remains the same for the 12-month period as the other time periods, as it peaked in the third quarter of 2021 at 98%. Condominiums and Cooperative Units The absorption rate for new condominiums and cooperative units fell to 66% for the quarter. The previous quarter’s rate was significantly revised, up from 69% to 80%, which helps to explain the dramatic decline. Total completions of new condominiums and cooperative units, according to the SOMA, rose over the quarter up from 2,829 to 4,366. Quarterly completions of these units peaked in the second quarter of 2018, at 7,996 completions but have steadily fallen since that peak. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Apartment Completions Rise Resulting in Slower Absorption Rates2024-11-27T09:19:29-06:00

Small Gain for Multifamily Built-for-Sale Construction

2024-11-27T08:18:29-06:00

According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts declined during the third quarter of 2024. For the quarter, 94,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 88,000 were built-for-rent. This was almost 14% lower than the third quarter of 2023. The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts declined to below 94% for the third quarter, as the built-for-sale, multifamily condo market experienced a gain. The historical low market share of 47% for bult-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period. For the third quarter, there were 6,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, up from 3,000 a year ago. While still a small market, this was the highest quarterly count since mid-2022. An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. According to third quarter 2024 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts ticked higher to 1,061 square feet. The median edged up to 1,013 square feet. These estimates are near multidecade lows. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Small Gain for Multifamily Built-for-Sale Construction2024-11-27T08:18:29-06:00

Best Quarter for Multifamily Missing Middle Construction in 17 Years

2024-11-25T08:19:11-06:00

The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has generally disappointed since the Great Recession. However, there was a noticeable uptick for this type of housing construction in the most recent data. For the third quarter of 2024, there were 6,000 2- to 4-unit housing unit construction starts. This is double the pace of construction from a year prior. As a share of all multifamily production, 2- to 4-unit development was just above 6% of total multifamily development for the third quarter. However this is still lower than recent historic trends. From 2000 to 2010, such home construction made up a little less than 11% of total multifamily construction. Construction of the missing middle has clearly lagged during the post-Great Recession period and will continue to do so without zoning reform focused on light-touch density. But recent data offer hope for additional housing supply for these kind of structures. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Best Quarter for Multifamily Missing Middle Construction in 17 Years2024-11-25T08:19:11-06:00

Single-Family Permits Higher in September 2024  

2024-11-15T09:16:15-06:00

Over the first nine months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 763,990. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 10.1% over the September 2023 level of 693,908. Year-to-date ending in September, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 15.8% in the West to 7.8% in the South. The Midwest was up by 11.8% and the Northeast was up by 10.1% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York, was the only region to post an increase and was up by 30.1%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 31.7%, the South declined by 20.7%, and the Midwest declined by 8.4%. Between September 2024 YTD and September 2023 YTD, 46 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 43.6% in New Mexico to 0.4% in Oregon. Maryland (-1.5%), New Hampshire (-1.6%), Alaska (-4.3%), and Hawaii (-7.7%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 63.1% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 122,976 permits over the first nine months of 2024, which is an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 1.7%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 8.5%. Year-to-date ending in September, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 362,543. This is 16.4% below the September 2023 level of 433,862. Between September 2024 YTD and September 2023 YTD, 17 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. Georgia reported no change. Rhode Island (+134.6%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 309 to 725, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 70.5% from 2,600 to 766. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.2% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first nine months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 27.5%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 27.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 33.4%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Permits Higher in September 2024  2024-11-15T09:16:15-06:00

Multifamily Housing: Distribution, Building Size, and Gross Rent Across Congressional Districts

2024-10-31T10:19:15-05:00

Approximately 27% of the national housing stock consists of multifamily homes—defined as residential buildings with multiple separate housing units within one structure. According to the 2023 American Community Survey 1-year estimates, these units range from small duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes (2 to 4 units) to medium-sized buildings (5 to 49 units) and large complexes (50 or more units). While most congressional districts have multifamily housing shares between 10% to 20% of total housing units, this proportion varies widely, from as low as 8% to as high as 98%. The map below illustrates the distribution of multifamily housing stock across congressional districts with larger shares indicated by bigger bubble size. This visualization shows that districts with the largest share of multifamily units are, unsurprisingly, concentrated in densely populated urban areas. New York leads in this regard, with its 12th and 13th Districts – both encompassing upper and midtown Manhattan – having almost exclusively multifamily units at 98% each. In fact, eight out of the top 10 districts with the largest share of multifamily housing are in New York. Other areas with large shares include New Jersey’s 8th District, also within the New York metropolitan area, and Massachusetts’s 7th District that includes Boston. At the lower end of the distribution, North Carolina’s 8th District has only 8% multifamily units, while Michigan’s 2nd and 9th Districts, Arizona’s 9th District, and Florida’s 12th District all have around 9% multifamily units. Building Sizes in Multifamily Units In most congressional districts, multifamily units tend to be on the smaller side, with the majority consisting of buildings with 5 to 19 units, followed by those with 2 to 4 units. Duplexes, triplexes, and quadplexes (2 to 4 units) are especially common in the Northeast, various Mountain states, and parts of California. Apart from Illinois’s 4th District, which has the highest share of small multifamily units (70%), the remaining top five districts with the largest shares of 2 to 4 unit buildings are all in New York, each exceeding 60%. Buildings with 5 to 19 units are more prevalent across the South and Midwest, with Maryland’s 2nd, 3rd and 4th Districts owning majority shares of this building type with 59%, 62% and 61%, respectively. High-density areas like New York’s 12th District, Florida’s 27th District – located within Miami-Dade County – and Washington, D.C. (at large), tend to have the largest multifamily (50 or more) buildings. North Dakota (at large) and Minnesota’s 6th District stand out as the only two congressional districts where the majority of multifamily buildings have between 20 to 49 multifamily units. Gross Median Rent and Renter Cost Burden Multifamily units are predominantly rented rather than owned, with 86% being occupied by renters. This trend holds across all multifamily types, with larger buildings generally more likely to be rental properties, while condominiums (owner-occupied units) are often smaller buildings. A Fannie Mae study on the multifamily market found that larger properties typically command higher monthly rents, especially in major metropolitan areas. The chart below corroborates this, showing that districts with higher shares of large multifamily buildings (50 or more units) also have higher median monthly rents (including utilities and fuel). However, lower median rents don’t always equate to more affordability, as even low-rent areas can have high renter cost burdens due to lower income levels. For example, New York’s 12th District has the highest median rent at $3,121, with 43% of renters burdened (spending over 30% of income on housing costs), a rate matched by Kentucky’s 5th District, where the median rent is only $727. Overall, despite rent prices moderating (see Real Rent Index), rental cost burdens remain high across the country, with only 23 of 436 congressional districts (including D.C.) having fewer than 40% of renter households burdened by housing costs. Additional housing data for your congressional district are provided by the US Census Bureau here. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Multifamily Housing: Distribution, Building Size, and Gross Rent Across Congressional Districts2024-10-31T10:19:15-05:00

Apartment Construction Time Averaged 20 Months in 2023

2024-09-16T09:16:04-05:00

The average length of time to complete construction of a multifamily building after obtaining authorization was 19.9 months in 2023, according to the 2023 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau. The permit-to-completion time inched up 0.1 months in 2023, after an increase of 2.3 months in 2022, as the ongoing skilled labor shortage and supply chain issues were still challenging the industry. The average time to build multifamily homes varies with the number of units in the building. The more units, the more time required to build. In 2023, buildings with 20 or more units took the longest time,22 months, to build after obtaining authorization. Properties with 10-to-19 units required 21.5 months. However, 2-to-4 unit buildings came in at 18.7 months, which took longer time than 5-to-9 unit buildings (16.9 months). Compared to 2019, pre-pandemic, only buildings with 5 to 9 units took a similar time to complete. The construction process required 3.3 more months to complete multifamily buildings with 2-to-4 units, 2.8 months more for 10-to-19 unit buildings, and 3 months longer to finish for properties with 20 or more units. The 2023 SOC data also shows a significant regional variation in the average construction duration of multifamily buildings. The West had the longest time from authorization to completion at 20.9 months, followed by the Northeast at 20.8 months, and then the South with 19.5 months. The shortest permit-to-completion period happened in the Midwest with 17.3 months. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Apartment Construction Time Averaged 20 Months in 20232024-09-16T09:16:04-05:00

Single-Family Permits Up in July 2024  

2024-09-16T09:16:59-05:00

Over the first seven months of 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 599,308. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 13.7% over the July 2023 level of 527,158. Year-to-date ending in July, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range of permit increases spanned 18.2% in the West to 9.8% in the Northeast. The Midwest was up by 14.5% and the South was up by 12.4% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, three out of the four regions posted declines. The Northeast, driven by New York was the only region to post an increase and was up by 32.0%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 31.2%, the South declined by 22.7%, and the Midwest declined by 9.3%. Between July 2024 YTD and July 2023 YTD, 47 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 39.4% in Arizona to 2.1% in Rhode Island. New Hampshire (-0.2%), Hawaii (-2.7%), and Alaska (-10.4%) reported declines in single-family permits. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 64.0% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 97,551 permits over the first seven months of 2024, which is an increase of 15.6% compared to the same period last year. The succeeding highest state, Florida, was up by 9.5%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted an increase of 11.8%. Year-to-date ending in July, the total number of multifamily permits issued nationwide reached 279,618. This is 17.2% below the July 2023 level of 337,730. Between July 2024 YTD and July 2023 YTD, 18 states recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 32 states and the District of Columbia recorded a decline. New York (+117.4%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 10,110 to 21,981, while the District of Columbia had the biggest decline of 68.7% from 1,969 to 616. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 64.7% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first seven months of 2024, Texas, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced a decline of 30.4%. Following closely, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, Florida, saw a decline of 24.4%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 27.5%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Permits Up in July 2024  2024-09-16T09:16:59-05:00

Second Home Areas Gaining Home Building Market Share 

2024-09-09T10:24:47-05:00

NAHB’s featured topic for the second quarter HBGI reveals that 17.5% of single-family and 8.6% of multifamily construction takes place in second home areas. Recent NAHB analysis found that the total count of second homes across the US was 6.5 million, which accounts for 4.6% of the total housing stock. For this analysis, a second home area is a county that has a second home share greater than 10.3% of the county’s total housing stock (these counties fall within the 75th and above percentile of the second home stock share distribution).  There are 788 counties that are considered a second home area based on this definition. Single-family Single-family permit data shows that the market share for construction in second home areas has grown by over four percentage points in the past nine years. The earliest data, which is the fourth quarter of 2015, shows that second home areas had a market share of 13.2%. As of the second quarter of 2024, the market share for this geography increased to 17.5%. However, this latest reading is down from a peak of 18.3% in the first quarter of 2023.   The peak growth rate in construction for second homes areas was at 38.5% in the third quarter of 2021. The first recorded decline in the growth rate occurred in the third quarter of 2022. This downward growth rate was followed by five quarters of declines until the first quarter of 2024.   Second home areas have averaged a growth rate of 9.1% between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2024, while non-second home areas averaged single-family a growth rate of 5.1% over the same period.   Multifamily Although smaller, the market share for second home areas has also grown for multifamily construction. The market share was 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and is now 8.6%, a 3.1 percentage point increase. This increase in market share has been more volatile than single-family, as growth in construction has not been as consistent for multifamily in second home areas.  There have been three periods where construction growth for multifamily experienced declines in these areas, such as in 2017 and early 2021. The third period of decline is ongoing, as there have been two consecutive quarters where the growth rate has been negative to start 2024. The latest growth rate is a11.8% decline. This is down from a peak of 53.1% in the third quarter of 2022, as multifamily construction has slowed nationwide.  Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Second Home Areas Gaining Home Building Market Share 2024-09-09T10:24:47-05:00

New Review Spotlights the Unintended Consequences of Rent Control

2024-09-09T10:25:02-05:00

Although rent control policies do, in fact, produce lower rents in the controlled units as intended, these policies also have a number of unintended and undesirable consequences, according to a recently published review of the academic literature. Among the unintended consequences are a reduced supply of housing, higher rents in uncontrolled units, reduced quality in the controlled units, and reduced residential mobility. The review is titled “Rent Control Effects Through the Lens of Empirical Research: An Almost Complete Review of the Literature,” authored by Konstantin Kholodilin and  published in the March 2024 issue of the peer-reviewed Journal of Housing Economics. The review covers 112 empirical rent control studies based on a wide range of data sources and published between 1963 and 2023. The table below summarizes the theoretic rent control effects analyzed in more than six of the studies. In addition, there were thirteen studies that all find that rent control resulted in misallocations of resources of various types. Policymakers should be particularly concerned with the findings that rent control results in a reduced supply of housing and higher rents in the uncontrolled units. Builders, of course, are likely to focus on the depressing effect rent control has on new construction, which is consistent with research NAHB undertook jointly with the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) in 2022. In that research, NAHB and NMHC asked multifamily developers if they avoid building in jurisdictions with rent control. Over 85% said yes. Kholodilin’s review concludes that rent control leads to a wide range of adverse effects, and that policymakers should take these effects into account when trying to design an optimal policy. Readers interested in the full review can obtain it from sciencedirect.com. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

New Review Spotlights the Unintended Consequences of Rent Control2024-09-09T10:25:02-05:00
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