2025 First Quarter State-Level GDP Data

2025-06-27T14:15:30-05:00

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in ten states in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Thirty-nine states reported real GDP declines, while the District of Columbia and Delaware reported no change during this time. The percent change in real GDP ranged from a 1.7 percent increase at an annual rate in South Carolina to a 6.1 percent decline in Iowa and Nebraska. Nationwide, growth in real GDP (measured on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis) declined 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025. This is the first decline in quarterly real GDP levels in three years. The leading contributors to the decrease in real GDP across the country were finance and insurance; agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; and wholesale trade. Regionally, real GDP growth declined in seven out of the eight regions between the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. The Southeast region was the only territory to post a meager 0.3 percent increase. The percent change in real GDP declines ranged from a 0.3 percent decline in the Southwest and Far West regions, to a 3.3 percent decline in the Plains region. At the state level, South Carolina posted the highest GDP growth rate (1.7 percent), followed by Florida (1.4 percent) and Alabama (1.0 percent). The percent increase in real GDP ranged from a 1.7 percent increase in South Carolina to a 0.1 percent increase in Georgia. On the other hand, 39 states reported real GDP declines ranging from a 0.1 percent decline in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas, to a 6.1 percent decline in Iowa and Nebraska for the first quarter of 2025. Looking at industry contributions to GDP across states, the “real estate and rental and leasing industry” was the leading contributor to growth in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In contrast, the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industry led a decrease in 39 states, and was the leading contributor to economic contraction in 11 states. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

2025 First Quarter State-Level GDP Data2025-06-27T14:15:30-05:00

Consumer Confidence Retreats in June

2025-06-24T13:14:56-05:00

After a strong rebound in May, consumer confidence resumed its downward trend in June. Consumers remain concerned about the economy and labor market amid ongoing uncertainty, especially around tariffs. This month’s decline erased almost half of last month’s sharp gain, suggesting continued volatility in consumer sentiment. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, is a survey measuring how optimistic or pessimistic consumers feel about their financial situation. This index fell from 98.4 to 93.0 in June, the second lowest level since February of 2021. The Consumer Confidence Index consists of two components: how consumers feel about their present situation and their expected situation. In June, the Present Situation Index decreased 6.4 points from 135.5 to 129.1, the lowest since October 2024; and the Expectation Situation Index dropped 4.6 points from 73.6 to 69.0. This is the fifth consecutive month that the Expectation Index has been below 80, a threshold that often signals a recession within a year. Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative in June. The share of respondents rating business conditions “good” decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 19.0%, while those claiming business conditions as “bad” rose by 1.6 percentage points to 15.3%. Meanwhile, consumers’ assessments of the labor market cooled somewhat in June. The share of respondents reporting that jobs were “plentiful” fell by 1.9 percentage points at 29.2%; meanwhile, those who saw jobs as “hard to get” decreased by only 0.3 percentage points to 18.1%. Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve fell from 19.9% to 16.7%, while those expecting business conditions to deteriorate declined from 25.4% to 24.0%. Similarly, expectations of employment over the next six months were more negative. The share of respondents expecting “more jobs” decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.4%, and those anticipating “fewer jobs” fell by 0.3 percentage points to 25.9%. The Conference Board also reported the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months. The share of respondents planning to buy a home fell slightly to 5.9% in June. Of those, respondents planning to buy a newly constructed home decreased to 0.2%, and those planning to buy an existing home dropped to 3.2%. The remaining 2.0% were planning to buy a home but were undecided between new or existing homes. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Consumer Confidence Retreats in June2025-06-24T13:14:56-05:00

Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible?

2025-06-24T10:19:11-05:00

Lumber cost uncertainty has risen from the start of the year, driven in part by potential higher tariffs, particularly on Canadian softwood lumber. Despite the continued use and threat of tariffs, U.S. sawmill and wood preservation firms have not increased production to a level that replaces imports. In fact, utilization rates continue to fall, meaning they have the capacity to produce more lumber but are simply not operating at that level. As these firms produce at lower levels, their employment has fallen over the past few quarters. At the same time, reduced foreign competition and artificially higher prices have lessened the incentive for firms to expand output, even as demand remains high. As a result, U.S. mills remain unable to meet the nation’s full lumber consumption needs. In the first quarter of 2025, sawmill and wood preservation firms continued to report lower capacity utilization coupled with stagnant production. The utilization rate, a ratio of actual production and potential production, was 64.4% in the first quarter on a four-quarter moving average basis. The utilization rate has continued to drop since 2017, as capacity (or the capability to produce) has increased, but production has remained lower than in 2018. By combining the Federal Reserve’s production index and the Census Bureau’s utilization rate, we can compose a rough index estimate of what the current production capacity is for U.S. sawmills and wood preservation firms. Shown below is a quarterly estimate of the calculated production capacity index with production index and utilization rate estimates.   Based on the data above, sawmill capacity has increased from 2015 but remains lower than peak levels in 2011. Most of the recent capacity gains took place in 2023, followed by little gain over the course of 2024. As evident above, there is ample room to increase production of domestic lumber, but current production levels remain much unchanged over the past several years. Looking at the Producer Price Index, lumber prices remain higher than 2024. At current pricing levels, producers may see no benefit of increasing output, as it would push prices lower since demand has fallen from the start of the year. Notably, even when prices were historically high in 2021 and 2022, producers were unable to increase their production significantly during these periods, potentially due to supply chain disruptions. Employment at sawmills and wood preservations firms fell again in the first quarter to 88,533 workers. This marks the third consecutive quarter where employment fell in this industry. Tariff policies to protect the U.S. lumber industry have been in place since 2017 in the form of antidumping/countervailing duties. Tariff policies are typically intended to provide stability to the industry and increase employment but here, we are seeing the opposite effect. These policies specifically place duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber, where nearly a quarter of the U.S. softwood lumber supply originates. The current AD/CVD rates on Canadian softwood lumber are expected to double this fall to over 30%. Due to U.S. lumber production remaining level since the initial tariff policies were enacted in 2017, doubling these duty costs will likely not increase supply but simply increase costs. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Is U.S. Lumber Self-Reliance Possible?2025-06-24T10:19:11-05:00

Household Real Estate Asset Value Falls to Start the Year

2025-06-13T10:18:47-05:00

The market value of household real estate assets fell from $48.1 trillion to $47.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. The value of household real estate assets declined for three consecutive quarters after peaking at $48.8 trillion in the second quarter of 2024 but remains 2.1% higher over the year. Real estate secured liabilities of households’ balance sheets, i.e. mortgages, home equity loans, and HELOCs, increased 0.3% over the first quarter to $13.4 trillion. This level is 2.9% higher compared to the first quarter of 2024. Owners’ equity share of real estate assets1 was 72.0% in the first quarter, marking a small decline in owners’ equity share which matches the decline in the market value of households real estate assets. The share in the first quarter of 2024 was 72.2%. Owners’ equity as a percentage of household real estate; Difference between assets and liabilities as a share of assets Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Household Real Estate Asset Value Falls to Start the Year2025-06-13T10:18:47-05:00

Inflation Up Slightly in May

2025-06-11T10:16:58-05:00

Despite inflationary pressure from tariffs, inflation in May rose slightly but came in softer than expected. The Consumer Price Index increased from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. While this report reflected consumer prices after Liberation Day, it showed little sign of tariff impact as most reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days and many businesses had frontloaded imports ahead of tariffs. This preemptive action contributed a drag on the first quarter GDP growth. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reduced its CPI collection sample starting in April due to staffing shortages, raising potential data quality concerns. Given these factors, it may be too early to gauge the impact of tariffs, as tariff-driven price increases have not yet materialized. Meanwhile, housing inflation remains elevated, though it continues to ease gradually. During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% in May. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 2.8% over the past twelve months. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 3.9% over the year, the lowest reading since November 2021.  Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 2.9%, and the energy component index fell by 3.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.1% in May (seasonally adjusted), after a 0.2% increase in April. The “core” CPI increased by 0.1% in May. The price index for a broad set of energy sources fell by 1.0% in May, with increases in electricity (0.9%) and fuel oil (0.9%) offset by declines in gasoline (-2.6%) and natural gas (-1.0%). Meanwhile, the food index rose by 0.3%, after a 0.1% decrease in April. Both food away from home and food at home increased by 0.3%. The index for shelter (+0.3%) was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in all items index. Other top contributors that rose in May include indexes for medical care (+0.3%), motor vehicle insurance (+0.7%), household furnishings and operations (+0.3%), personal care (+0.5%), as well as education (+0.3%). Meanwhile, the index for airline fares (-2.7%) and used cars and trucks (-0.5%) were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month. The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rising by 0.3% in May, following an increase of 0.3% in April. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) rose by 0.3% and index for rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.2% over the month. Despite the moderation, shelter costs remained the largest contributors to headline inflation.  While the Fed rate cuts could ease some housing market pressure, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. Tight monetary policy actually hurts housing supply by increasing AD&C financing cost. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continued rising despite Fed policy tightening in 2022. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation and overall inflation. This emphasizes why the cost of construction, including the cost of building materials, matters not just for housing but also the inflation outlook and the path of future monetary policy. NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components). In May, the Real Rent Index rose by 0.1%. Over the first five months of 2025, the average monthly growth rate held steady at 0.1%, unchanged from the same period in 2024. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Inflation Up Slightly in May2025-06-11T10:16:58-05:00

HBGI Q1 2025: Multifamily Growth in Smaller Markets

2025-06-03T14:20:31-05:00

Single-family construction growth slowed substantially across all markets in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI).  Multifamily construction growth remained negative in the largest markets but reported significant expansion in lower population density areas. The HBGI tracks single-family and multifamily permits across seven population density delineated geographies in the United States.   Single-Family Among the HBGI geographies, the highest growth in the first quarter of 2025 was registered in small metro core counties, which increased 3.2% year-over-year on a four-quarter moving average basis (4QMA). The market with the largest decline in growth between the fourth quarter and first quarter was large metro core counties, which saw its four-quarter moving average growth rate fall from 9.4% to 1.3% (-8.1 pp). Two geographies, large metro outlying areas and non metro/micro counties, reported declines in the first quarter, down 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. In terms of market share, single-family construction took place primarily in small metro core county areas, representing 29.2% of single-family construction. The smallest single-family construction market remained non metro/micro county areas, with a 4.2% market share. Single-family construction market share have been stable since the first quarter of 2024, with the largest gain being 0.4 percentage points in small metro core counties over the year.   Multifamily Multifamily construction expanded 33.2% in large metro outlying areas in the first quarter, the highest growth (4QMA) since the second quarter of 2022 when this geography grew 71.8%. Growth was present in three other geographies, with micro counties up 29.3%, small metro outlying counties up 18.5%, and non metro/micro counties up 3.7%. Because of the notable increase in multifamily construction occurring in smaller markets, market shares have shifted over the past two years. Large metro core counties, where a plurality of construction takes place, saw a 4.8 percentage point drop in market share between Q1 of 2024 and 2025. The largest construction gains have been in low population density areas, with the combined market share for small metro outlying counites, micro counties and non metro/micro counties growing 2.2 percentage points from 7.8% to 10.0% between Q1 2024 and 2025. The first quarter of 2025 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/hbgi. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

HBGI Q1 2025: Multifamily Growth in Smaller Markets2025-06-03T14:20:31-05:00

Building Material Price Growth Minimal in April

2025-05-27T13:21:26-05:00

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—fell 0.4% in April, following a (revised) increase of 0.8% in March. These figures are taken from the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI measures prices that domestic producers receive for their goods and services; this differs from the Consumer Price Index which measures what consumers pay and includes both domestic products as well as imports. The inputs to the New Residential Construction Price Index grew 0.6% from April of last year. The index can be broken into two components­—the goods component also increased 0.6% over the year, with services increasing 0.6% as well. For comparison, the total final demand index, which measures all goods and services across the economy, increased 2.4% over the year, with final demand with respect to goods up 0.5% and final demand for services up 3.3% over the year. Input Goods Prices The goods component has a larger importance to the total residential construction inputs price index, representing around 60%. For the month, the price of input goods to new residential construction was down 0.2% in April. The input goods to residential construction index can be further broken down into two separate components, one measuring energy inputs with the other measuring goods less energy inputs. The latter of these two components simply represents building materials used in residential construction, which makes up around 93% of the goods index. Energy input prices were up 0.1% between March and April but were 17.6% lower than one year ago. Building material prices were down 0.3% between March and April but up 2.2% compared to one year ago. Energy costs have continued to fall on a year-over-year basis, as this marks the ninth consecutive month of lower input energy costs. Input Services Prices Prices for service inputs to residential construction reported its first monthly decline in five months, down 0.6% in April. On a year-over-year basis, service input prices are up 0.6%. The price index for service inputs to residential construction can be broken out into three separate components: a trade services component, a transportation and warehousing services component, and a services excluding trade, transportation and warehousing component (other services). The most significant component is trade services (around 60%), followed by other services (around 29%), and finally transportation and warehousing services (around 11%). The largest component, trade services, was up 0.2% from a year ago. The other services component was up 1.4% over the year. Lastly, prices for transportation and warehousing services advanced 0.6% compared to April last year. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Building Material Price Growth Minimal in April2025-05-27T13:21:26-05:00

Inflation Eased Again in April

2025-05-13T10:19:27-05:00

Inflation slowed to a 4-year low in April while shelter inflation remained elevated. Despite the easing, inflation may pick up in the coming months as possible inflationary pressure from enacted tariffs and other policy uncertainties continues to threaten economic growth and complicate the Fed’s path to its 2% target. Meanwhile, housing inflation remains elevated, but it continues to show signs of cooling – the year-over-year change in the shelter index remained below 5% for an eighth straight month, matching last month’s lowest level since November 2021.  While the Fed’s interest rate cuts could help ease some pressure on the housing market, its ability to address rising housing costs is limited, as these increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. In fact, tight monetary policy hurts housing supply because it increases the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise at an elevated pace despite Fed policy tightening. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation and with it, overall inflation. This emphasizes why the cost of construction, including the cost of building materials, matters not just for housing but also the inflation outlook and the path of future monetary policy. Consequently, the election result has put inflation back in the spotlight and added additional upside and downside risks to the economic outlook. Proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflationary pressures, suggesting a more gradual easing cycle with a slightly higher terminal federal funds rate. However, economic growth could also be higher with lower regulatory burdens. Given the housing market’s sensitivity to interest rates, a higher inflation path could extend the affordability crisis and constrain housing supply as builders continue to grapple with lingering supply chain challenges. During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.3% in April, smallest increase since February 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. This followed a 2.4% year-over-year increase in March. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI increased by 2.8% over the past twelve months. A large portion of the “core” CPI is the housing shelter index, which increased 4.0% over the year.  Meanwhile, the component index of food rose by 2.8%, and the energy component index fell by 3.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in April (seasonally-adjusted), after a 0.1% decline in March. The “core” CPI increased by 0.2% in April. The price index for a broad set of energy sources rose by 0.7% in April, with increases in natural gas (3.7%) and electricity (0.8%) offset by decline in gasoline (-0.1%). Meanwhile, the food index fell 0.1%, after a 0.4% increase in March. The index for food away from home increased by 0.4% and the index for food at home decreased by 0.4%. The index for shelter (+0.3%) was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in all items index, accounting for more than half of the total increase. Other top contributors that rose in April include indexes for household furnishings and operations (+1.0%), medical care (+0.5%), motor vehicle insurance (+0.6%), education (+0.1%), as well as personal care (+0.1%). Meanwhile, the index for airline fares (-2.8%) and used cars and trucks (-0.5%)were among the few major indexes that decreased over the month. The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI, rose by 0.3% in April, following an increase of 0.2% in March. The index for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) rose by 0.4% and index for rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.3% over the month. Despite the moderation, shelter costs remained the largest contributors to headline inflation.  NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than core inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than core inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components). In April, the Real Rent Index rose by 0.1%. Over the first four months of 2025, the monthly growth rate of the Real Rent Index averaged at 0.1%, higher than 0.0% from the same period in 2024. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Inflation Eased Again in April2025-05-13T10:19:27-05:00

Fed Remains on Pause with Rising Uncertainty

2025-05-07T14:23:12-05:00

The Federal Reserve remained on pause with respect to rate cuts at the conclusion of its May meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. Characterizing current market conditions, the central bank noted that the “unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid.” However, the Fed noted that “inflation remains somewhat elevated.” Today’s statement acknowledged the weak first quarter GDP report via a reference to “swings in net exports have affected data” but otherwise the economy continues to expand at a “solid pace.” The Fed also reiterated its commitment to maintain maximum employment and bring inflation back to its 2% target rate. With respect to monetary policy, the Fed noted that uncertainty for the U.S. economy has increased. Mindful of its dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment), the Fed noted that the “risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.” This statement reflects the complex situation the Fed currently faces, with risks to both sides of its policy mandate increasing. While todays statement does not explicitly reference tariff policy, the debate over tariffs is an obvious candidate for the source of these rising risks that would harm the labor market and raise prices. Indeed, Chair Powell referenced industry reports of tariff risks in his press conference. Many economists, who as a profession dislike tariffs, would argue that the Fed would likely move further on normalizing monetary policy and reducing rates, if not for the risks of future tariff policy. In the meantime, as Chair Powell noted, otherwise solid economic conditions leave the Fed with moderately restrictive policy and “in a good place to wait and see” with respect to future policy. Today’s statement noted that the Federal Open Market Committee “will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” In particular, the Fed will review “readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.” While the list of data sources the Fed is watching seems like everything but the kitchen sink, the Fed should be sure to watch sinks, windows, lighting fixtures, and other building material pricing and availability to gauge future economic and inflation conditions. Shelter inflation remains a leading source of ongoing elevated inflation. And shelter inflation can only be reduced by building more attainable housing. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Fed Remains on Pause with Rising Uncertainty2025-05-07T14:23:12-05:00

Housing’s Share of the Economy Grows Higher to Start the Year

2025-05-01T08:22:40-05:00

Housing’s share of the economy grew to 16.4% in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the highest reading since the third quarter of 2022 and is up 0.2 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2024. The more cyclical home building and remodeling component – residential fixed investment (RFI) – was 4.1% of GDP, up from 4.0% in the previous quarter. The second component – housing services – was 12.3% of GDP, up from 12.2% in the previous quarter. The graph below stacks the nominal shares for housing services and RFI, resulting in housing’s total share of the economy. Housing service growth is much less volatile when compared to RFI due to the cyclical nature of RFI. Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5% of GDP, while housing services have averaged between 12% and 13%, for a combined 17% to 18% of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle. However, the housing share of GDP lagged during the post-Great Recession period due to underbuilding, particularly for the single-family sector. In the first quarter, RFI added 5 basis points to the headline GDP growth rate, marking the second straight quarter of positive contributions. RFI was 4.1% of the economy, recording a $1.216 trillion seasonally adjusted annual pace. Among the two segments of RFI, residential structures rose 1.2% while residential equipment rose 5.5%. Breaking down the components of residential structures, single-family structure RFI grew 5.9%, while multifamily investment fell 11.5%. RFI for multifamily structures has contracted for seven consecutive quarters. Permanent site structure RFI, which is made up of single-family and multifamily RFI, grew 1.2%.  Other structures RFI rose 0.6% in the first quarter, down from 11.4% the previous period. The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services. Similar to the RFI, housing services consumption can be broken out into two components. The first component, housing, includes gross rents paid by renters, owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units), rental value of farm dwellings, and group housing. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach, because without this measure, increases in homeownership would result in declines in GDP. The second component, household utilities, is composed of consumption expenditures on water supply, sanitation, electricity, and gas. For the first quarter, housing services represented 12.4% of the economy or $3.691 trillion on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Housing services expenditures grew 3.4% at an annual rate in the first quarter and contributed 41 basis points to GDP growth. Real personal consumption expenditures for housing grew 1.3%, while household utilities expenditures grew 18.7%. Real personal expenditures for natural gas services grew 53.1% in the first quarter, as residential consumption of natural gas recorded its highest monthly level since January 2014, at 1.035 trillion cubic feet in January 2025. Through the first two months of 2025, residential households consumed 1.833 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, higher than the 1.582 trillion in 2024 and 1.498 trillion in 2023. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Housing’s Share of the Economy Grows Higher to Start the Year2025-05-01T08:22:40-05:00

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