Existing Home Sales End 2022 with Weakest Year Since 2014

2023-01-20T12:15:27-06:00

As elevated mortgage rates and tight inventory continue to weaken housing demand, the volume of existing home sales declined for an eleventh consecutive month as of December, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the longest run of declines since 1999. While mortgage rates have retreated in recent weeks due to recession concerns, they are likely to see another up cycle in early 2023 as the Fed ends its rate tightening cycle. Additionally, home price appreciation slowed for the sixth month after reaching a record high existing home average of $413,800 in June. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in December, the lowest pace since November 2010 with the exception of April and May 2020. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 34.0% lower than a year ago. In 2022, existing sales totaled 5.03 million, down from 17.8% from 2021. This marks the lowest annual total since 2014 and the largest annual decline since 2008. The first-time buyer share stayed at 31% in December, up from 28% last month and 30% in December 2021. The fact that this share has stayed stable is a positive sign of future homebuying demand. The December inventory level measure fell from 1.12 to 0.97 million units but was up 0.88 million from a year ago. At the current sales rate, December unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply, down from 3.3-months in November but up from a 1.7-months reading a year ago. Homes stayed on the market for an average of 26 days in December, up from 24 days in November and 19 days in December 2021. In December, 57% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month. The December all-cash sales share was 28% of transactions, up from 26% last month and 23% a year ago. All-cash buyers are less affected by changes in interest rates. The December median sales price of all existing homes was $366,900, up 2.3% from a year ago, representing the 130th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. The median existing condominium/co-op price of $317,200 in December was up 3.3% from a year ago. Geographically, three regions saw a decline in existing home sales in December, ranging from 1.0% in the Midwest to 2.2% in the South. Sales in the West remained unchanged in December. On a year-over-year basis, all four regions continued to see a double-digit decline in sales, ranging from 28.8% in the Northeast to 43.4% in the West. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell 4.0% from 77.0 to 73.9 in November, the second lowest reading in 20 years. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 37.8% lower than a year ago per the NAR data. Related ‹ 2022 Ends With A Decline in Single-Family Starts For the First Time Since 2011Tags: Existing Home Sales, inventory, pending home sales index

Existing Home Sales End 2022 with Weakest Year Since 20142023-01-20T12:15:27-06:00

Existing Home Sales Decline Further in November

2022-12-21T10:15:25-06:00

As rapid rising mortgage rates continue to weaken housing demand, the volume of existing home sales has declined for ten consecutive months as of November, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the longest run of declines since 1999. While mortgage rates have retreated in recent weeks due to recession concerns, they are likely to see another up cycle in 2023. Additionally, home price appreciation slowed for the fifth month after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June. Total existing home sales, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 7.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November, the lowest pace since November 2010 with the exception of April and May 2020. On a year-over-year basis, sales were 35.4% lower than a year ago. The first-time buyer share stayed at 28% in November, unchanged from last month but up from 26% in November 2021. The November inventory level fell from 1.22 to 1.14 million units but was up 1.11 million from a year ago. At the current sales rate, November unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply, same as last month but up from 2.1-months reading a year ago. Homes stayed on the market for an average of 24 days in November, up from 21 days in October and 18 days in November 2021. In November, 61% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month. The November all-cash sales share was 26% of transactions, identical to last month and up from 24% a year ago. The November median sales price of all existing homes was $370,700, up 3.5% from a year ago, representing the 129th consecutive month of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. The median existing condominium/co-op price of $321,600 in November was up 5.8% from a year ago. Geographically, sales in all four regions dropped in November, ranging from 5.6% in the Midwest to 12.5% in the West. On a year-over-year basis, all four regions saw a double-digit decline in sales, ranging from 28.4% in the Northeast to 45.7% in the West. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell 4.6% from 80.8 to 77.1 in October. On a year-over-year basis, pending sales were 37.0% lower than a year ago per the NAR data. Related ‹ Single-Family Production Continues to Decline, Multifamily Permits WeakeningTags: Existing Home Sales, inventory, mortgage rates, pending home sales index

Existing Home Sales Decline Further in November2022-12-21T10:15:25-06:00

All-Cash New Home Sales Outnumber FHA-Backed for the First Time Since 2007

2022-10-28T12:21:21-05:00

NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing published by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that new home sales financed through FHA numbered 11,000 and accounted for 7.5% of the total in Q3 2022–the smallest share since the fourth quarter of 2007.  The share has dropped by nearly two-thirds since the spring of 2020. In contrast, the share of cash purchases has climbed each of the past three quarters to reach a 20-year high of 9.5% (14,000 sales). This is first time since 2007 that cash sales accounted for both a larger number as well as a larger share of the total. Conventional loans financed 77.6% of new home sales in the third quarter—a 1.2 percentage point quarter-over-quarter increase. The share has risen each of the prior seven quarters. The share of VA-backed sales declined 0.8 percentage point to 5.4% in the third quarter–0.8 ppts higher than the share one year prior. Although cash sales typically make up a small portion of new home sales, they constitute a larger share of existing home sales. According to estimates from the National Association of Realtors, 22% of existing home transactions were all-cash sales in September 2022, down from 24% in August and 23% in September 2021. The average interest rate of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased 100 basis points, quarter-over-quarter.  Over the four quarters ending Q3 2022, the average rate of a conventional 30-year FRM spiked 369 basis points—the largest yearly increase since 1981. Stock market returns (proxied by the S&P 500®) in the third quarter were -5.3%, quarter-over-quarter, and -16.8% year-over-year. Each of these factors plays an important role in the dynamics among market share by type of financing. Higher stock returns and the resulting increased wealth aids borrowers in the underwriting process as well as increasing the down payment a household can afford (should they cash out some of their portfolio). Higher mortgage rates decrease the odds that a given loan will be approved, all else held equal, as they make monthly payments larger than they would otherwise be. Different sources of financing also serve distinct market segments, which is revealed in part by the median new home price associated with each. In the second quarter, the national median sales price of a new home was $454,900. Split by types of financing, the median prices of new homes financed with conventional loans, FHA loans, VA loans, and cash were $503,200, $340,300, $432,200, and $494,200, respectively. The median new home price has increased 5.0% in 2022 but there is a large variance by type of financing.  The price of a new home purchased with cash has increased 27.3% since Q1 2022 while the price of an FHA-backed sale has fallen 7.6%. Related ‹ Inflation Brings Savings Rate Down In SeptemberTags: conventional loans, Existing Home Sales, FHA, financing, mortgage finance, mortgage lending, new home cash purchases, new home financing, new home sales, sales by financing, single-family sales, VA

All-Cash New Home Sales Outnumber FHA-Backed for the First Time Since 20072022-10-28T12:21:21-05:00

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