Single-Family Homes Started in 2021

2022-08-09T09:21:22-05:00

According to NAHB analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC), new single-family starts expanded at a fast pace in 2021. Nationally, 1,133,145 new single-family units were started in 2021, 14% higher than the units started in 2020. It marked the fastest growth rate since 2013 and the highest count of starts since the Great Recession. Among all the nine Census divisions, the South Atlantic, West South Central and Mountain Divisions led the way with the most new single-family units started in 2021. These three divisions represent 20 states and Washington, D.C., approximately 41% of United States, while the number of new single-family housing starts in these three divisions accounted for more than two thirds of the total new single-family housing starts in 2021. In addition, single-family units started in the Pacific Division increased to 106,240 in 2021, exceeding 100,000 for the second straight year since the 2008 recession. There were 93,693 new single-family units started in the East North Central Division in 2021. While the Pacific Division accounted for 9% of the total new single-family housing starts, the East North Central Division accounted for 8%. The other four divisions, including East South Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic and New England, accounted for the remaining 16% of the total new single-family housing starts. In 2021, four out of the nine divisions grew faster than the national level of 14%. The Middle Atlantic Division led the way with a 26% increase, followed by the East South Central Division with a 23% increase and the West South Central Division with a 19% increase. The growth rates of the other five divisions were close to or below the national level. Compared to last year, five out of the nine divisions, including Middle Atlantic, East South Central, West South Central, South Atlantic, and West North Central, had an acceleration in 2021. Meanwhile, the Mountain, East North Central, Pacific, and New England Divisions experienced a deceleration in growth in 2021.  Noticeably, the Middle Atlantic Division grew by 26% in 2021, following a decrease of 9% in 2020. Related ‹ June Job Openings and Monetary Policy ConsiderationsTags: annual growth rate, housing starts, nine divisions, single-family

Single-Family Homes Started in 20212022-08-09T09:21:22-05:00

Job Gains Soar in July Amid Recession Fears

2022-08-05T11:15:15-05:00

Job growth accelerated in July amid higher inflation and growing economic pressures. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 528,000, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% in July. Construction industry employment (both residential and non-residential) totaled 7.7 million and has exceeded its February 2020 level. In July, residential construction gained 14,100 jobs, and non-residential construction added 18,300 jobs. Residential construction employment currently exceeds its level in February 2020, while 83% of non-residential construction jobs lost in March and April have now been recovered. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 528,000 in July, following a gain of 398,000 in June, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary.  It marks the largest gain since February 2022. The estimates for the previous two months were revised up. The May estimate was revised up by 2,000 from +384,000 to +386,000, while the June increase was revised up by 26,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June together was revised up by 28,000 from the previously reported ones. In the first seven months of 2022, more than 3.3 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 471,000 per month. As of July 2022, total nonfarm employment is back to pre-pandemic level in February 2020, meaning U.S. labor market is fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5% in July from 3.6% in June, returning to the level in February 2020. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already with a job, ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 62.1% in July. Additionally, according to the Household Survey supplemental data, which come from questions added to the Current Population Survey (CPS) since May 2020, 7.1% of employed persons teleworked or worked at home in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the coronavirus pandemic in July, unchanged from the previous month. In May 2020, 35.4% of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic. Job growth in July was broad-based across sectors, led by gains in leisure and hospitality (+96,000), professional and business services (+89,000), and health care (+70,000). Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 32,000 in July, following a 16,000 gain in June. Residential construction gained 14,100 jobs, while non-residential construction employment gained 18,300 jobs in July. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.2 million in July, broken down as 902,000 builders and 2.3 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 11,900 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 120,800 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,186,500 positions. In July, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has been trending lower, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Related ‹ Headship Stabilizes During the Pandemic Housing BoomTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Job Gains Soar in July Amid Recession Fears2022-08-05T11:15:15-05:00

High Home Prices Is Main Reason Active Buyers Can’t Seal the Deal

2022-08-04T09:16:36-05:00

By Rose Quint on August 4, 2022 • An earlier post revealed that 63% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the 2nd quarter of 2022 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. The most common reason these long-term searchers cite for not having bought by now is their inability to find an affordable home (43%).  In second place is getting outbid by other buyers (35%), followed by the inability to find a home in a desirable neighborhood (32%), or a home with desirable features (29%). When asked what they are most likely to do next if still unable to find a home in the next few months, 46% of active buyers searching for 3+ months said they will continue looking for the ‘right’ home in the same location (down from 52% a quarter earlier); 38% will expand their search area (unchanged), 30% will accept a smaller/older home (up from 20%), and 26% will buy a more expensive home (up from 19%) Meanwhile, the share who plan to give up their home search until next year or later was unchanged at 25% between the first and second quarters of 2022.  This share has increased or remained flat in each of the past four quarters. **Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the final post in a series of six highlighting results for the 2nd quarter of 2022. Related ‹ Housing Share of GDP Edges Lower in the Second Quarter of 2022Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

High Home Prices Is Main Reason Active Buyers Can’t Seal the Deal2022-08-04T09:16:36-05:00

More Prospective Buyers Are Actively Searching for a Home

2022-08-03T09:18:22-05:00

By Rose Quint on August 3, 2022 • The share of prospective home buyers who are actively engaged in the process to buy a home rose to 49% in the second quarter of 2022, after declining for three straight quarters.  The pivot is likely driven by less competition from buyers who have exited the market, which has encouraged many of those remaining to become active buyers. Except for the South, the share of prospective buyers actively searching for a home rose in every region between the first and second quarters of 2022: Northeast (50% to 54%), Midwest (40% to 51%), and West (46% to 57%). In the second quarter of 2022, the share of active buyers who have been looking for a home for 3+ months fell to 63%, down from 67% in the previous quarter.  The share is at its lowest point in almost two years (since the third quarter of 2020, when it was 62%). Before the pandemic (between the first quarters of 2018 and 2020), fewer than 60% of active buyers shopped for a home for 3+ months. **Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the fifth in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 2nd quarter of 2022. Related ‹ Second Quarter of 2022 Homeownership Rate at 65.8%Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

More Prospective Buyers Are Actively Searching for a Home2022-08-03T09:18:22-05:00

The Mix of Home Buyers Is Changing, Leading to Improved Affordability

2022-08-02T09:17:42-05:00

By Rose Quint on August 2, 2022 • For the first time since 2020, affordability expectations improved in the second quarter of 2022.  After rising steadily for five straight quarters, the share of buyers who can only afford a minority of the homes for sale in their markets declined to 77%, down from 81% a quarter earlier.  Conversely, the share able to afford at least half the homes available rose from 19% to 23%.  A likely reason for the pivot is that the exit of 1st-time home buyers from the market is tilting the composition of the pool of buyers towards wealthier buyers better able to absorb recent increases in mortgage rates. Affordability expectations between the first and second quarters of 2022 improved in two regions.  In the West, the share of buyers only able to afford a minority of homes dropped from 78% to 70%; and in the Northeast, from 77% to 73%.  The share edged up in the Midwest (83% to 84%) and in the South (79% to 82%). **Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the fourth in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 2nd quarter of 2022. Related ‹ Private Residential Spending Declines in JuneTags: housing economics, housing trends report

The Mix of Home Buyers Is Changing, Leading to Improved Affordability2022-08-02T09:17:42-05:00

Buyers’ Expectations of Housing Availability Improve

2022-08-01T09:16:25-05:00

By Rose Quint on August 1, 2022 • For the first time since 2020, prospective buyers expect housing availability to improve.  After falling steadily for five quarters, the share expecting the home search to get easier in the months ahead grew from 17% to 22% between the first and second quarters of 2022.  Less competition from buyers priced-out of the market by recent increases in mortgage rates is likely driving this improvement.  In contrast, 67% expect the search to get harder/stay the same, down from 74% a quarter earlier. Housing availability expectations improved in all regions except the Midwest.  In the West, 31% of buyers expect easier conditions, up from 18% a quarter earlier. In the Northeast, the share rose from 22% to 28%; in the South, from 17% to 18%; while in the Midwest, it edged down from 15% to 14%. Another measure confirms that buyers’ perceptions of housing inventory pivoted in the second quarter of 2022.  After declining for five straight quarters, the share of buyers seeing more homes available for-sale* in their markets turned around in the second quarter of 2022, rising to 28% from 23% a quarter earlier. Across regions, inventory perceptions improved or remained unchanged.  From the first to the second quarter of 2022, the share of buyers seeing more homes on the market rose in the West (23% to 36%) and the Midwest (21% to 23%), while remaining the same in the NE (27%) and SO (24%). ** Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here.  This is the third in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 2nd quarter of 2022. Related ‹ Inflation Causes Real Disposable Income to Slip in JuneTags: housing economics, housing trends report

Buyers’ Expectations of Housing Availability Improve2022-08-01T09:16:25-05:00

Some Buyers Turning to New Construction

2022-07-29T09:23:55-05:00

By Rose Quint on July 29, 2022 • After falling steadily for five quarters, the popularity of new homes rebounded in the second quarter of 2022, as 21% of prospective buyers reported looking for a newly-built home – up from 19% a quarter earlier.  A possible reason for this pivot is the recent growth in the inventory of new homes for-sale, while the supply of existing homes on the market remains very tight. Regionally, the increased interest for new homes is driven entirely by the West, where the share of buyers looking to buy a newly-built home rose from 24% in the first quarter of 2022 to 30% in the second quarter. In contrast, the share declined in all other regions during this period. * Results come from the Housing Trends Report (HTR) – a research product created by the NAHB Economics team with the goal of measuring prospective home buyers’ perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets.  The HTR is produced quarterly to track changes in buyers’ perceptions over time.  All data are derived from national polls of representative samples of American adults conducted for NAHB by Morning Consult.  Results are seasonally adjusted.  A description of the poll’s methodology and sample characteristics can be found here. This is the second in a series of six posts highlighting results for the 2nd quarter of 2022.  Related ‹ The Second Quarter of Negative Growth: A Recession?Tags: housing economics, housing trends report

Some Buyers Turning to New Construction2022-07-29T09:23:55-05:00

The Second Quarter of Negative Growth: A Recession?

2022-07-28T11:16:27-05:00

The U.S. economy definitively slowed in the first half of 2022 as the Federal Reserve tightened financial conditions. Real GDP fell for the second straight quarter, while the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the second consecutive month to reduce inflation pressure. Despite these negative elements, the job market remained solid amid inflation concerns and growing recession fears. However, while an “official” recession will be called by the NBER, a housing downturn is clearly underway. The NBER definition of a recession requires a broad range of economic variables to show declines, including economic growth and labor market conditions. Such a call if often made quarters after the recession has begun. Nonetheless, during the second quarter of 2022 the housing component of GDP exerted the largest drag on headline GDP growth, excepting the second quarter of 2020, since the third quarter of 2010. According to the “advance” estimate  released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, following a 1.6% decrease in the first quarter of 2022. It is the second consecutive quarter of negative growth. This quarter’s decrease reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, partially offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). In the second quarter, private inventory investment declined by $107 billion, subtracting 2.0 percentage points from GDP growth. Both nonresidential fixed investment (-0.1%) and residential fixed investment (RFI) (-14.0%) dropped in the second quarter. The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment reflected decreases in structures and equipment, which were mostly offset by an increase in intellectual property products (+9.2%). Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures declined 4.2% at an annual rate, multifamily structures declined 5.6% and other structures (specifically brokers’ commissions) decreased 22.2%. Meanwhile, federal government spending decreased 3.2% in the second quarter, reflecting a decrease in nondefense spending on consumption expenditures, while state and local government spending declined 1.2%, led by a decrease in investment in structures. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased due to an increase in services (+21.2%). Consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 1.0% in the second quarter, compared to a 1.8% increase in the first quarter. Expenditures on services increased 4.1% at an annual rate, while goods spending decreased 4.4% at an annual rate, led by food and beverages (-11.7%). Net exports rose by $70 billion in the second quarter, contributing 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth. Related ‹ Federal Reserve Raises by 75 Basis Points and Notes Slowing EconomyTags: economics, gdp, macroeconomics, macroeconomy, residential fixed investment

The Second Quarter of Negative Growth: A Recession?2022-07-28T11:16:27-05:00

The Share of Wood-Framed Homes Increased in 2021

2022-07-22T08:18:17-05:00

By Jing Fu on July 22, 2022 • Lumber prices have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past two years and reached to an all-time high price of $1,515 per thousand board feed in the week ending May 21, 2021, as reported by Random Lengths. However, despite higher lumber prices and ongoing supply-chain issues, wood framing remains the most dominant construction method for single-family homes in the U.S. per the 2021 data. According to NAHB analysis of 2021 Census Bureau data, for 2021 completions, 92% of new homes were wood-framed, another 7% were concrete-framed homes, and less than half a percent was steel-framed. On a count basis, there were 895,000 wood-framed homes completed in 2021. This was an 8% gain over the 2020 total. As noted above, steel-framed homes are relatively uncommon, with a total of just 3,000 housing completions in 2021, which was 40% less than the 2019 completions sum of 5,000. Concrete-framed homes experienced the second straight decline in 2021, after a 13% decrease in 2020. In 2021, the total decreased 5% from 75,000 completions in 2020 to 71,000. However, the gains over the last 10 years are striking. From 2011 to 2021, the concrete-framed market share increased from 4% to 7%. Non-wood based framing methods are primarily concentrated in the South due to residential resiliency requirements. In 2021, concrete-framed homes made up 13% of all homes completed in the South. Approximately two-thirds of steel framed homes completed in 2021 were located in the South, with another one-third in the West. Related ‹ Home Building Construction Times Slow in 2021Tags: economics, framing, home building, housing, single-family

The Share of Wood-Framed Homes Increased in 20212022-07-22T08:18:17-05:00

Residential Building Worker Wages Continue to Rise Amid Uncertainty

2022-07-11T15:17:27-05:00

By Jing Fu on July 11, 2022 • Average hourly earnings for residential building workers* continue to rise in May as the construction labor market remains tight, meanwhile the growth rate is trending down given tightening financial conditions and increased economic uncertainty. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, average hourly earnings (AHE) for residential building workers were $29.18 in May 2022, increasing 5% from $27.79 a year ago. This was 17.0% higher than the manufacturing’s average hourly earnings of $24.95, 11.5% higher than transportation and warehousing’s, and 9.7% lower than mining and logging’s. Construction job openings was little changed in May with 434,000 jobs, the highest measure in the history of the data series. As skilled labor shortage persists, rising wages may be one of the effective ways to attract employees to fill empty positions. Average hourly earnings for residential building workers have increased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic recession. Between December 2019 and December 2021, residential building workers’ average hourly earnings increased about 12%. Note: * Data used in this blog relate to production and nonsupervisory workers in the residential building industry. This group accounts for approximately two-third of the total employment on residential building industry. Related ‹ Solid Job Gains in JuneTags: average hourly earnings, labor market, residential building, wages

Residential Building Worker Wages Continue to Rise Amid Uncertainty2022-07-11T15:17:27-05:00

About My Work

Phasellus non ante ac dui sagittis volutpat. Curabitur a quam nisl. Nam est elit, congue et quam id, laoreet consequat erat. Aenean porta placerat efficitur. Vestibulum et dictum massa, ac finibus turpis.

Recent Works

Recent Posts