Home Prices Continue to Decline in September

2022-11-29T11:16:59-06:00

Home prices declined for the third straight month in September as the housing market continues to cool. In September, all 20 metro areas experienced negative home price appreciation. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, fell at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 8.7% in September, following a 6.4% decline in July and a 10.4% decrease in August. After a decade of growth, home prices started to decline in July, driven by elevated interest rates and high construction costs. The July decline marked the first decline since February 2012, and the September decline marks the third consecutive monthly decline. Nonetheless, national home prices are now 62.4% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in March 2006. On a year-over-year basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 10.6% annual gain in September, after a 12.9% increase in August. Year-over-year home price appreciation slowed for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in September, following the previous two months’ decreases. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose by 11.0% in September, following a 12.0% increase in August. The FHFA thus confirmed the slowdown in home price appreciation. In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P CoreLogic reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in September. All 20 metro areas reported negative home price appreciation. Their annual growth rates ranged from -23.2% to -3.7% in September. San Francisco, Las Vegas, and Phoenix experienced the most monthly declines in home prices. San Francisco declined 23.2%, while Las Vegas and Phoenix declined 22.7% and 22.3%, respectively. The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in August and in September 2022. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in August; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in September.  Compared to last month, home prices declined faster in September in the following 12 metro areas: Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, Las Vegas, New York, Cleveland, and Dallas. Related ‹ Declining Trend of Two-Story FoyerTags: FHFA Home Price Index, home prices, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Home Prices Continue to Decline in September2022-11-29T11:16:59-06:00

New Home Sales Increase in October

2022-11-23T11:19:34-06:00

By Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington on November 23, 2022 • New home sales rebounded in October despite higher mortgage rates, likely due to low existing home inventory and builders using incentives to attract buyers to the new home market. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau estimated sales of newly built, single-family homes in October at a 632,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, which is a 7.5% increase over downwardly revised September rate of 588,000 and is 5.8% below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000. Sales-adjusted inventory levels are at an elevated 8.9 months’ supply in October. However, only 63,000 of the new home inventory is completed and ready to occupy. This count has been increasing in recent months and is up 75.0% compared to a year ago. Homes under construction accounts for 63.8% of the inventory. Moreover, sales are increasingly coming from homes that have not started construction, with that count up 13.7% year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). The median sales price increased to $493,000 in October, up 8.2% compared to September and is up 15.4% compared to a year ago. In October there were 23,000 homes that were priced above $500,000 compared to 17,000 a year ago. Nationally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales are down 14.2% for the first ten months of 2022. Regionally, on a year-to-date basis, new home sales fell in all four regions, down 4.8% in the Northeast, 22.0% in the Midwest, 11.8% in the South, and 17.9% in the West. Related ‹ Small Increase for Missing Middle MultifamilyTags: economics, home building, housing, new home sales, sales, single-family

New Home Sales Increase in October2022-11-23T11:19:34-06:00

Credit Conditions for Builders and Developers Continue to Worsen

2022-11-16T12:17:02-06:00

During the third quarter of 2022, credit continued to become less available and generally more costly on loans for Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) according to NAHB’s Survey on AD&C Financing. To analyze credit availability, responses from the NAHB survey are used to construct a net easing index, similar to the net easing index based on the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers (SLOOS).  In the third quarter of 2022, both the NAHB and Fed indices were negative, indicating tightening credit conditions.  This was the third consecutive quarter during which indices from both surveys indicated tighter credit.  Moreover, both indices were more negative in the third quarter than they had been in the second, and far more negative than they had been in the first.  In the first quarter of the year, the NAHB net easing index stood at -2.3 before declining to -21.0 in the second quarter and  -36.0 in the third.  Similarly, the Fed net easing index was -4.7 in the first quarter of 2022, but subsequently fell to -48.4 in the second quarter and -57.6 in the third.  In short, the tightening of credit conditions for builders and developers is becoming more widespread. According to the NAHB survey, the most common ways in which lenders tightened in the third quarter were by increasing the interest rate on the loans (cited by 74 percent of the builders and developers who reported tighter credit conditions), reducing amount they are willing to lend (60 percent) and lowering the allowable Loan-to-Value or Loan-to-Cost ratio (46 percent). Meanwhile, the average effective rate (based on rate of return to the lender over the assumed life of the loan taking both the contract interest rate and initial fee into account) increased on three of the four categories of loans tracked in the AD&C Survey: from 9.55 to 9.67 percent on loans for land development, from 8.48 to 9.95 percent on loans for speculative single-family construction, and from 8.63 to 10.76 percent on loans for pre-sold single-family construction. These increases were due to increases in both the contract interest rate and the initial points charged on the loans.  The average contract rate increased from 6.27 to 6.42 percent on loans for land development, from 5.39 to 6.16 percent on loans for speculative single-family construction, and from 5.24 to 5.85 percent on loans for pre-sold single-family construction.  Similarly, average points increased from 0.90 to 0.93 percent on loans for land development, from 0.63 to 0.76 percent on loans speculative single-family construction, and from 0.59 to 0.89 percent on loans for pre-sold single-family construction. On the fourth category of loans in the AD&C survey (for pure land acquisition) the average effective rate declined slightly, from 8.19 percent to 7.97 percent.  Again, this was due to a combined effect of the contract rate and points on the loans moving in the same direction.  The average contract rate on land acquisition loans declined from 6.16 to 6.09 percent, while the average points declined from 0.86 to 0.79 percent. These generally worsening credit conditions are contributing to the weakness in builder confidence reported by NAHB earlier today.  Additional detail on current credit conditions for builders and developers is available on NAHB’s AD&C Financing Survey web page. Related ‹ Builder Confidence Declines for 11 Consecutive Months as Housing Weakness ContinuesTags: ad&c lending, ad&c loans, ADC, construciton loans, construction lending, credit conditions, economics, home building, housing, interest rates, lending

Credit Conditions for Builders and Developers Continue to Worsen2022-11-16T12:17:02-06:00

Patios Continue to Substitute for Decks on New Homes

2022-11-14T08:18:25-06:00

As a previous post has shown, the share of new homes with patios increased for the sixth year in a row in 2021, to a post-2004 high of 63.0 percent  At the same time, the share with decks was trending in the opposite direction, declining for the fifth year in a row to a post-2004 low.  Of the roughly 1.1 million single-family homes started in 2021, only 17.5 percent included decks, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and partially funded by HUD).  As noted above, this is the lowest the new home deck percentage has been since the 2005 re-design of the SOC and indicates that, over time, patios and decks have functioned as substitutes for each other. The 2021 SOC data also indicate that decks and patios tend to function as substitutes for each other geographically.  Across the nine Census divisions, the correlation between the percentages of new homes with decks and patios was  -.81.  The share of new homes with decks was at its lowest in the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions (7 and 13 percent, respectively), the same two divisions where the share of new homes with patios was at its highest (over 70 percent). Decks on new homes nevertheless remain relatively popular in certain parts of the country.  For example, over 60 percent of new homes in New England came with decks in 2021, followed by 47 percent in the West North Central and 41 percent in the Middle Atlantic.  The New England and Middle Atlantic divisions are also the two divisions where patios on new homes are least common.  The West North Central, however, stands out as the one division where the shares of new homes with decks and patios are both reasonably high (around 45 percent), providing the best evidence that the negative correlation between decks and patios, while quite strong at -.81, is not perfect. The SOC data provide information about the number of new homes with decks, but not much detail beyond that.  However, considerable information about the type of decks on new homes is available from the Annual Builder Practices Survey (BPS) conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs. For the U.S. as a whole, the 2022 BPS report (based on homes built in 2021) shows that the average size of a deck on a new single-family home is 296 square feet.  Across Census divisions, the average deck size ranges from a low of about 253 square feet in the West North Central and South Atlantic divisions to 456 square feet in the West South Central. The latest BPS also shows that composite (a mixture of usually recycled wood fibers and plastic) has moved ahead of treated wood as the material used most often in new home decks. Related ‹ Inflation Shifts to Slowest Pace Since JanuaryTags: BPS, builder practices survey, composite, decks, economics, home building, housing, patios, SOC, survey of construction

Patios Continue to Substitute for Decks on New Homes2022-11-14T08:18:25-06:00

Unsurprisingly, Housing Affordability Continues to Fall

2022-11-10T09:16:23-06:00

By Rose Quint on November 10, 2022 • Rising mortgage rates, high inflation, ongoing building material supply chain disruptions, and elevated home prices contributed to housing affordability falling – yet again – to its lowest point since the Great Recession in the third quarter of 2022. According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), just 42.2% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $90,000. This marks the second consecutive record low for housing affordability in more than a decade, trailing the previous mark of 42.8% set in the second quarter. While the HOI shows that the national median home price fell to $380,000 in the third quarter, it is still the second-highest median price in the series, after the $390,000 recorded in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, average mortgage rates reached a series high of 5.72% in the third quarter, up from 5.33% a quarter earlier. The top five most affordable major housing markets in the third quarter of 2022 were: Lansing-East Lansing, Mich. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Pa. Toledo, Ohio Syracuse, N.Y. Top five least affordable major housing markets—all located in California: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad Oxnard-Thousand-Oaks-Ventura San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Meanwhile, Cumberland, Md.-W.Va. was rated the nation’s most affordable small market, with 92.1% of homes sold in the third quarter being affordable to families earning the median income of $71,300. The top five least affordable small housing markets were also in the Golden State. At the very bottom of the affordability chart was Salinas, Calif., where 5.9% of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter were affordable to families earning the area’s median income of $90,100. Visit nahb.org/hoi  for tables, historic data and details. Related ‹ Mortgage Activity Remains Low Due to Market UncertaintyTags: housing affordability, housing economics

Unsurprisingly, Housing Affordability Continues to Fall2022-11-10T09:16:23-06:00

Labor Market Softens in October

2022-11-04T11:18:49-05:00

Job growth slowed in October as the Fed continues its tightening of financial conditions to fight inflation, but the overall labor market remains tight. The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in October as the number of persons in the labor force decreased for the second straight month. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, following a gain of 315,000 in September, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. It marks the smallest monthly job gain in nearly two years. The estimate for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, while the September increase was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000. In the first ten months of 2022, nearly 4.1 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 407,000 per month. The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.2 percentage points to 3.7% in October. The number of unemployed persons increased by 306,000 to 6.1 million, while the number of employed persons decreased by 328,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already with a job, edged down 0.1 percentage point to 62.2% in October, reflecting the increase in the number of persons not in the labor force and the decrease in the number of persons in the labor force. Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people aged between 25 and 54 decreased to 82.5%. Both of these two rates are still below their pre-pandemic levels in the beginning of 2020, and are not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. For industry sectors, health care (+53,000), professional and technical services (+43,000), and manufacturing (+32,000) led job gains in October. Employment in the overall construction sector was little changed (+1,000) in October, following a 22,000 gain in September. Residential construction gained 900 jobs, while non-residential construction employment gained 300 jobs in October. Residential construction employment currently exceeds its level in February 2020, while 83% of non-residential construction jobs lost in March and April have now been recovered. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.2 million in October, broken down as 904,000 builders and 2.3 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 6,217 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 105,300 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,195,000 positions. In October, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 1.0 percentage points to 5.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers has been trending lower, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Related ‹ Share of Young Adults Living with Parents Declined in 2021Tags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Labor Market Softens in October2022-11-04T11:18:49-05:00

Share of Young Adults Living with Parents Declined in 2021

2022-11-04T08:19:16-05:00

By Natalia Siniavskaia on November 4, 2022 • Spurred by elevated savings early in the pandemic and encouraged by lower interest rates, rising numbers of young adults left parental homes in 2021. As a result, the share of young adults ages 25-34 living with parents or parents-in-law declined and now stands at 20.2%, according to NAHB’s analysis of the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). This is a substantial change and welcome reversal of the troublesome trend we have been tracking since the housing boom and bust of the mid-2000s. Traditionally, young adults ages 25 to 34 make up around half of all first-time homebuyers. Consequently, the number and share of young adults in this age group that choose to stay with their parents or parents-in-law has profound implications for household formation, housing demand and the housing market.The share of adults ages 25 to 34 living with parents reached its peak of 22% in 2017-2018. Even though an almost 2 percentage point drop in the share since then is a welcome development that the housing market has been waiting for, the share remains elevated by historical standards, with one in five young adults remaining in the parental homes. Two decades ago, less than 12% of young adults ages 25 to 34, or 4.6 million, lived with parents. The current share of 20.2% translates into 8.9 million of young adults living in homes of their parents or parents-in-law. Undoubtedly, the Covid-19 pandemic heightened the desire for more spacious, independent living. The “excess” savings accumulated early in the lockdown stages of the pandemic, when spending opportunities were limited, gave a financial boost to young adults who remained employed and helped with down payments for a house for those looking into homeownership. The low mortgage rate environment further helped making home ownership affordable. Stacking our estimates of the share of young adults living with parents against NAHB/Wells Fargo’s HOI data confirms that the rising share of young adults living with parents is associated with worsening affordability while improving housing affordability coincides with the declining share of 25-34 year old adults continuing to live in parental homes. Given the historically high nature of the recent interest rate hikes and inflation rates, it is doubtful the recent gains in independent living by adults ages 25-34 can be sustained in 2022 and near future. Related ‹ Number of Bathrooms in New Homes in 2021Tags: headship rates, housing, housing affordability, young adults living with parents

Share of Young Adults Living with Parents Declined in 20212022-11-04T08:19:16-05:00

Economic Growth and Signs of Cooling Inflation in Third Quarter

2022-10-27T12:17:44-05:00

Real GDP grew in the third quarter, after shrinking for the first two straight quarters of 2022. This quarter’s growth was mostly fueled by a decline in the trade deficit. More important, the data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index, rose 4.1% for the third quarter, down from a 9.0% increase in the second quarter. Also, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price Index, capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior, rose 4.2% in the third quarter, down sharply from 7.3%. Looking forward, a mild recession is expected in the coming year as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten financial conditions. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the third quarter, following a 0.6% decrease in the second quarter and a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter. This quarter’s increase reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, partially offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. In the third quarter, exports increased 14.4%, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased 6.9%. Net exports rose by $156.6 billion in the third quarter, contributing 2.77 percentage points to GDP growth. Meanwhile, federal government spending increased 3.7% in the third quarter, reflecting increases in both national defense and nondefense spending, while state and local government spending rose 1.7%, led by an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. Consumer spending rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in the third quarter, down from a 2.0% increase in the second quarter. An increase in services was partly offset by a decrease in goods services. While expenditures on services increased 2.8% at an annual rate, goods spending decreased 1.2% at an annual rate, led by motor vehicles and parts (-11.7%) as well as food and beverages (-3.8%). Nonresidential fixed investment increased 3.7% in the third quarter. Increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures declined 36.3% at an annual rate, multifamily structures declined 5.5% and other structures (specifically brokers’ commissions) decreased 21.5%. Related ‹ Housing Share of GDP Continues to DecreaseTags: economics, gdp, inflation, macroeconomics, macroeconomy, PCE, residential fixed investment, the GDP price index

Economic Growth and Signs of Cooling Inflation in Third Quarter2022-10-27T12:17:44-05:00

Spec Square Foot Prices Skyrocket in 2021

2022-10-21T08:19:47-05:00

Median square foot prices (excluding record-high improved lot values) for new for-sale single-family detached (SFD) homes started in 2021 increased 19%, according to NAHB’s analysis of the latest Survey of Construction data. Increases for square foot prices in new custom SFD homes were more moderate, averaging 5%. Median sale and contract prices per square foot of floor area went up across all US regions, undoubtedly, reflecting skyrocketing building materials prices and fast rising labor costs that pummeled home building in 2021. Contract prices of custom, or contractor-built, homes do not include value of improved lot as these homes are built on owner’s land (with either the owner or a contractor acting as a general contractor). Consequently, contract prices are typically lower than sale prices of spec homes. To make comparison more meaningful, the cost of lot development is excluded from sale prices in this analysis. In the for-sale market, the Pacific and New England divisions registered the highest median prices. Half of new for-sale single-family detached homes started in these divisions in 2021 were sold at prices exceeding $206 and $198 per square foot of floor area, respectively, paid on top of the most expensive lot values in the nation. The most economical SFD spec homes were started in the South region, where the median sale prices per square foot were below the national medians. The East South Central division is home to the least expensive for-sale homes. Half of all for-sale SFD homes started here in 2021 registered square foot prices of $111 or lower, paid on top of the most economical lot values in the country. The other two divisions in the South – West South Central and South Atlantic – also registered median prices below the national median of $132 per square foot of floor area. Their corresponding prices are $125 and $123 per square foot, excluding improved lot values. Because square foot prices in this analysis exclude the cost of developed lot, highly variant land values cannot explain the regional differences in square foot prices. However, overly restrictive zoning practices, more stringent construction codes and higher other regulatory costs undoubtedly contribute to higher per square foot prices. Regional differences in the types of homes, prevalent features and materials used in construction also contribute to price differences. In the South, for example, lower square foot prices partially reflect less frequent regional occurrence of such costly new home features as basements. In the custom home market, new contractor-built SFD homes in the New England are by far most expensive to build. Half of custom SFD homes started in New England in 2021 registered prices in excess of $200 per square foot of floor area. The median custom square foot prices in the neighboring Mid Atlantic division were $154 per square foot – third highest in the nation. The Mountain division came in second with the median of $160 per square foot of floor space. The East North Central division had similarly high custom square foot prices. Half of custom SFD started in the East North Central in 2021 had prices of $150 per square foot or higher. The corresponding median price in the West North Central was $140. The South Atlantic division is where most economical custom homes were started in 2021 with half of new custom homes registering prices at or below $108 per square foot. The remaining two divisions in the South – East South Central and West South Central – recorded slightly higher median square foot contract prices of $123 and $120 – all below the national median of $131. Typically, contractor-built custom homes have been more expensive per square foot than for-sale homes after excluding improved lot values. Over the last two decades, this custom home premium averaged slightly above 9%, suggesting that new custom home buyers were not only willing to wait longer to move into a new home but also pay extra for pricier features and materials. However, these custom home premiums largely disappeared in 2021 when median square foot prices for new for-sale homes caught up and, in five divisions, exceeded divisional custom homes square foot prices. Pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, skyrocketing building materials costs and home prices setting new records on a monthly basis, combined with shorter build times for spec homes and more flexibility that spec builders have in delaying sales to keep up with the production pace – all likely contributed to a faster appreciation of spec home prices per square foot. It is possible the custom home premium per square foot will return to normal levels in the post-pandemic market or even reach higher levels, similar to the elevated readings of the housing bust and slow recovery of the late 2000s, if the housing market finds itself in a deep recession. The NAHB estimates in this post are based on the Survey of Construction (SOC) data. The survey information comes from interviews of builders and owners of the selected new houses. The reported prices are medians, meaning that half of all builders reported higher per square foot prices and the other half reported prices lower than the median. While the reported median prices cannot reflect the price variability within a division, and even less so within a metro area, they, nevertheless, highlight the regional differences in square foot prices. For the square footage statistics, the SOC uses all completely finished floor space, including space in basements and attics with finished walls, floors, and ceilings. This does not include a garage, carport, porch, unfinished attic or utility room, or any unfinished area of the basement. Related ‹ Existing Home Sales Continue to Drop Amid Rising Mortgage RatesTags: contract price per square foot, home building, median sale price per square foot, new single-family detached, regional differences, Square foot price

Spec Square Foot Prices Skyrocket in 20212022-10-21T08:19:47-05:00

Share of New Homes with Porches Dips Below 64 Percent

2022-10-14T07:27:14-05:00

Of the roughly 1.1 million single-family homes started in 2021, 63.4 percent came with porches, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau with partial funding from the Department of Housing and Urban Development). This marks the first time the share of single-family homes with porches has dipped below 64 percent since 2015.  From 2016 through 2020, the share was consistently above 64 percent, even above 65 percent in 2016 and 2020.  However, none of the year-to-year fluctuations have been very large.  The bottom line is that the share of new homes built with porches has hovered in a relatively narrow band between 63 and 66 percent since 2009. The Census Bureau’s SOC data can be tabulated for each of the country’s nine Census divisions.  Traditionally, porches on new homes have been most common in the four states that make up the East South Central division.  That was once again true in 2021, when 87 percent of single-family homes started in the East South Central had porches, followed at a distance by 74 percent in the Mountain, 73 percent in the East North Central, and 71 percent in the Pacific divisions. The SOC provides information about the number of new single-family homes with porches, but not many details about the porches beyond that.  A source for additional information, however, is the Builder Practices Survey (BPS), conducted annually by Home Innovation Research Labs.  Among other things, the 2022 BPS report (based on homes built in 2021) shows that porches continue to be most common on the front of new single-family homes, rather than on the side or rear.  When they are present, however, the side and rear porches tend to be larger—about 138 square feet, on average, compared to 102 square feet for front porches. On a square foot basis, builders use concrete more than any other material in new-home porches.  The major exception is in New England, where builders are considerably more likely to use treated wood, PVC or other plastic, composite (a combination of usually recycled wood fibers and plastic), natural stone or untreated wood. Related ‹ Inflation Remains Stubbornly High Despite Fed Rate HikesTags: BPS, builder practices survey, concrete, economics, home building, housing, porches, SOC, survey of construction

Share of New Homes with Porches Dips Below 64 Percent2022-10-14T07:27:14-05:00

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