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Most Home Builders are Small Businesses

Natalia Siniavskaia2025-08-27T08:27:22-05:00

Despite historically low self-employment rates and the rising market share of top ten builders, residential construction remains an industry dominated by independent entrepreneurs, with nearly 80% of home builders and specialty trade contractor firms being self-employed independent contractors. Even among firms with paid employees, the industry continues to be dominated by small businesses, with 63% of homebuilders and two out of three specialty trade contractors generating less than one million dollars in total business receipts. The new estimates are based on the 2022 Economic Census and Nonemployer Statistics data.1The Economic Census covers several construction subsectors that comprise the home building industry: Residential Building Construction (RBC) – Single-family general contractors (except for-sale builders) – Multifamily general contractors (except for-sale builders) – New housing for-sale builders Residential Remodelers Land Subdivision (or land developers) Specialty Trade Contractors (STC) The 2022 statistics show that the majority of residential construction businesses are self-employed independent contractors. There are over 813,000 nonemployer firms in residential building construction (RBC), accounting for close to 80% of all establishments. In land subdivision, more than 9,000 independent contractors account for 68% of land subdivision firms. Over 1.9 million specialty trade independent contractors make up 79% of all STC establishments. These nonemployer firms also account for almost half of the full-time employees (FTE) in residential building construction, 26% in land subdivision, and 28% in STC. Most of these self-employed mom-and-pop firms are very small, with annual receipts averaging under $103,000 for residential building construction, and under $70,000 for specialty trade contractors. Self-employed independent contractors in land subdivision average around $288,000 in annual business receipts. As a result, these nonemployer firms make up only 12% of all sales and receipts generated by residential building construction and land subdivision, and 9% of specialty trade contractors’ revenue. Among residential construction businesses with paid employees, remodeling, land subdivision, and specialty trade subcontractors (STC) companies tend to be smaller. Three out of four remodeling establishments, 63% of land developers, and 59% of STC companies generate under $1 million in receipts. Home builders are typically somewhat larger, with about 45% of companies reporting annual sales over $1 million. Among homebuilders, multifamily general contractors tend to be the largest. However, the Census Bureau did not disclose the number of the largest (with revenue over $100 million) and smallest (with revenue under $100K) multifamily and single-family custom builders in 2022. As a result, the revenue spectrum for MF and SF contractors is incomplete and is presented in a separate chart. Multifamily contractors are typically larger compared to single-family contractors and for-sale builders (who build on land they own and control). Ten percent of multifamily contractors reported annual sales between $10 million and 25 million, and an additional 11% earned between $25 million and $100 million in 2022. Under the most recent U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) size standards, the vast majority of residential construction companies qualify as small businesses. The most recent small business size limits for all types of builders are $45 million, $34 million for land subdivision, and $19 million for specialty trade contractors. By these standards, almost all remodelers and single-family contractors, and at least 98% of land developers, and 96% of specialty trade contractors, easily qualify as small businesses. The Economic Census, like many other federal statistics programs, collects data only on establishments with payroll employees. The Nonemployer Statistics Program by the Census Bureau collects annual data for businesses that have no paid employees, including the number of businesses and total receipts by industry, which largely come from the IRS. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Most Home Builders are Small BusinessesNatalia Siniavskaia2025-08-27T08:27:22-05:00

Single-Family Starts Weaken in June as Affordability Challenges Persist

Robert Dietz2025-07-18T08:23:20-05:00

Single-family housing starts declined in June to the lowest rate since July 2024 as elevated interest rates, rising inventories and ongoing supply-side issues continue to act as headwinds for the housing sector. Due to a solid increase in multifamily production, overall housing starts increased 4.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. The June reading of 1.32 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this overall number, single-family starts decreased 4.6% to an 883,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and are down 10% compared to June 2024. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 30% to an annualized 438,000 pace. Single-family building conditions continued to weaken in June as housing affordability challenges caused builder traffic to move lower as buyers moved to the sidelines. Rising levels of resale inventory are also a headwind for the industry. Single-family home building in the South is down 12.4% on a year-to-date basis, far outpacing declines in the Northeast and the West. However, single-family home building is up 10% on a year-to-date basis in the Midwest, where housing affordability conditions are generally better than much of the nation. On a regional and year-to-date basis, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 28.8% higher in the Northeast, 13.1% higher in the Midwest, 8.1% lower in the South and 0.6% lower in the West. Overall permits increased 0.2% to a 1.40-million-unit annualized rate in June. Single-family permits decreased 3.7% to an 866,000-unit rate and are down 8.4% compared to June 2024. Multifamily permits increased 7.3% to a 531,000 pace. Looking at regional permit data on a year-to-date basis, permits were 16.9% lower in the Northeast, 8.2% higher in the Midwest, 3.3% lower in the South and 3.7% lower in the West. The declines for single-family home building have caused the number of single-family homes under construction to level off. There are currently 622,000 single-family homes under construction, which is 6% lower than a year ago. The number of apartments under construction in June, 739,000, is 18.8% lower than a year ago. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Starts Weaken in June as Affordability Challenges PersistRobert Dietz2025-07-18T08:23:20-05:00

Lot Values Trend Higher in 2024

Natalia Siniavskaia2025-07-14T08:17:55-05:00

Despite shrinking lot sizes, values for single-family detached spec home lots continued to rise, with the national median outpacing U.S. inflation and reaching a new high in 2024. The U.S. median lot value for single-family detached for-sale homes started in 2024 stood at $60,000, according to NAHB’s analysis of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC) data. Even though the national median lot value grew faster than U.S. inflation in 2024, it remains below the record levels of the housing boom of 2005-2006, when adjusted for inflation. At that time, half of the lots were valued at or over $43,000, equivalent to about $67,000 when converted into inflation-adjusted 2024 dollars. Rising lot values stand out against the backdrop of dramatic shifts towards smaller lots in new spec home construction in recent years. Since the housing boom of 2005-2006, the share of lots under 1/5 of an acre rose from 48% in 2005 to 65% in 2024. Consequently, even though current median lot values are not record-breaking in real terms, they reflect a very different mix of lots compared to the housing boom years or even a decade ago. The fact that lot values continue to appreciate as their sizes shrink reflects ongoing challenges builders face in obtaining lots. Although lot shortages are not quite as widespread as they were in 2021, their current incidence, recorded by the May 2025 survey for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), remains elevated, with 64% of builders rating the supply of developed lots as low or very low. There is a substantial variation in lot values and appreciation across U.S. regions. New England and the Pacific stand out as the two divisions with the most expensive lots. Per the latest SOC data, half of all single-family detached (SFD) spec homes started in New England in 2024 were built on lots valued at or over $150,000. New England is known for strict local zoning regulations that often require very low density. As a matter of fact, the median lot size for single-family detached spec homes started in New England in 2024 was three times the national median. Therefore, it is not surprising that typical SFD spec homes in New England are built on some of the largest and most expensive lots in the nation. The regional differences in lot sizes cannot fully explain the wide variation in lot values. The Pacific division, where the developable land is scarce, has the smallest lots. However, its median lot value reached $152,000 in 2024, the highest median in the nation. As a result, the Pacific division lots stand out as the most expensive in the country in terms of cost per acre. The Middle Atlantic division hit a new record high in 2024, with half of the lots for SFD spec home starts valued at or above $97,000. This made the Middle Atlantic the third most expensive division in the U.S. The East South Central and South Atlantic divisions are home to some of the least expensive spec home lots in the nation. The East South Central division recorded the lowest median lot value, at $48,000. Typical lots here are also significantly larger than the national median, thus defining some of the most economical lots, as well as the lowest cost per acre in the U.S. The neighboring South Atlantic is another division where the median lot value ($53,000) is below the national median of $60,000. Lots in the West South Central, which includes Texas, appreciated dramatically over the last decade. In 2012, half of the SFD spec homes were started on lots valued at or below $30,000, close to half of the current median of $58,000. For this analysis, median lot values were chosen over averages, since averages tend to be heavily influenced by extreme outliers. In addition, the Census Bureau often masks extreme lot values in the public use SOC dataset, making it difficult to calculate averages precisely, but medians remain unaffected by these procedures. This analysis is limited to single-family speculatively built homes by year started and with reported sales prices. For custom homes built on an owner’s land with either the owner or a builder acting as the general contractor, the corresponding land values are not reported in the SOC. Consequently, custom homes are excluded from this analysis. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Lot Values Trend Higher in 2024Natalia Siniavskaia2025-07-14T08:17:55-05:00

AI’s Role in Reshaping Employment: From Theory to Home Building Sector Impacts

Jing Fu2025-06-09T10:19:33-05:00

The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning and generative AI (GenAI), is reshaping industries, creating new economic opportunities, and raising critical questions about its long-term impact on jobs and economic growth. A recent study by Ping Wang and Tsz-Nga Wong, titled “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” (NBER Working Paper No. 33867, May 2025), provides valuable insights into how AI is reshaping labor markets. Their research highlights both the opportunities and challenges AI adoption brings to the workforce as it becomes increasingly integrated into the economy. The paper conceptualizes AI as a “learning-by-using” technology, meaning that AI improves its capabilities by learning from the very workers it may eventually replace. In the short term, this dynamic can significantly boost labor productivity. However, over time, if wages and job roles are not adjusted to reflect the growing capabilities of AI, the technology may transition from a supportive tool to a direct substitute for human labor. The paper outlines three possible long-term scenarios: Some-AI Steady State: AI improves productivity threefold but cuts nearly a quarter of jobs. Half of the job losses occur within the first five years, driven by the rapid replacement of workers by an AI system. Unbounded-AI Equilibrium: AI adoption unfolds smoothly, enhancing productivity without displacing workers. Employment rises modestly as AI becomes a complement to human labor rather than a substitute. No AI Equilibrium: AI fails to take off, and the labor market remains largely unchanged from its traditional form. AI presents a dual-edged sword. While it holds the potential to drive sustained growth and create new kinds of work, it also poses significant risks of job displacement. Early stages of AI adoption see the most significant job losses, while those who keep their jobs often see wage increases due to higher productivity. The authors emphasize that the long-term impact of AI remains uncertain. Outcomes will depend on several variables, including AI’s learning speed, error rates, and the relative cost of replacing workers with machines. This unpredictability makes it difficult to forecast whether AI will be a net job creator or destroyer over time. Additionally, the study points out that traditional labor market policies are insufficient to address the complex challenges posed by AI. Instead, smart, targeted policies are needed, like balancing the bargaining power between workers and firms, and offering subsidies to jobs at risk of AI disruption. These steps could mitigate negative outcomes and improve overall welfare significantly over the next 20 years, and help make AI a powerful ally in our work rather than a threat. The Impact of AI on the Home Building Industry: Opportunities and Challenges In the home building industry, on the supply side, AI is beginning to make its mark with both significant opportunities and complex challenges. From automating repetitive tasks to enhancing project efficiency, AI is transforming how homes are designed and built. Technologies, such as AI-powered design tools, robotic bricklayers, and automated construction equipment, are streamlining construction processes. These innovations reduce the need for manual labor in certain areas, leading to lower costs and shorter project timelines and helping address ongoing labor shortages. Moreover, AI is creating new opportunities within the home building sector. Demand is rising for workers skilled in AI system management, data analysis, and digital design, signaling a shift toward more technologically integrated and highly skilled roles. However, the adoption of AI comes with disruption. Without opportunities for reskilling, many workers whose roles may become automated may face displacement. The shortage of highly skilled workers could drive up labor costs and lead to project delays, putting pressure on housing affordability. To ensure a smooth transformation, targeted policy support is essential. Public and private investment in workforce retraining and upskilling programs will be key to helping displaced workers adapt to new roles, like ones that involve supervising AI systems or solving complex problems machines can’t yet handle. On the demand side of the housing market, the impact of AI could potentially be farther-reaching. AI will bring short-term disruption to labor markets, eliminating office jobs in metro areas. Such transitions in labor markets will alter housing demand, until the economy produces new jobs in an AI-adopting economy. And in theory, by making workers more productive, AI will raise long-term wage growth. These income gains will be a positive outcome for remodeling, housing demand, and vacation home demand in long run. For the time being, these impacts are speculative. Over time, they will be worth watching on both the supply and demand sides of the housing market. Note: Schmelzer, Ron. “Building The Future: How AI Is Revolutionizing Construction.” https://www.forbes.com/sites/ronschmelzer/2024/10/18/building-the-future-how-ai-is-revolutionizing-construction/ “The Rise of Artificial Intelligence in Construction.” Construction Today, September 2024. Demirci, Ozge, Jonas Hannane, and Xinrong Zhu. “Research: How Gen AI Is Already Impacting the Labor Market.” Harvard Business Review, November 11, 2024. “Artificial Intelligence Impact on Labor Markets.” International Economic Development Council (IEDC) and Economic Development Research Partners (EDRP), Literature Review. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

AI’s Role in Reshaping Employment: From Theory to Home Building Sector ImpactsJing Fu2025-06-09T10:19:33-05:00

HBGI Q1 2025: Multifamily Growth in Smaller Markets

Jesse Wade2025-06-03T14:20:31-05:00

Single-family construction growth slowed substantially across all markets in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Multifamily construction growth remained negative in the largest markets but reported significant expansion in lower population density areas. The HBGI tracks single-family and multifamily permits across seven population density delineated geographies in the United States. Single-Family Among the HBGI geographies, the highest growth in the first quarter of 2025 was registered in small metro core counties, which increased 3.2% year-over-year on a four-quarter moving average basis (4QMA). The market with the largest decline in growth between the fourth quarter and first quarter was large metro core counties, which saw its four-quarter moving average growth rate fall from 9.4% to 1.3% (-8.1 pp). Two geographies, large metro outlying areas and non metro/micro counties, reported declines in the first quarter, down 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. In terms of market share, single-family construction took place primarily in small metro core county areas, representing 29.2% of single-family construction. The smallest single-family construction market remained non metro/micro county areas, with a 4.2% market share. Single-family construction market share have been stable since the first quarter of 2024, with the largest gain being 0.4 percentage points in small metro core counties over the year. Multifamily Multifamily construction expanded 33.2% in large metro outlying areas in the first quarter, the highest growth (4QMA) since the second quarter of 2022 when this geography grew 71.8%. Growth was present in three other geographies, with micro counties up 29.3%, small metro outlying counties up 18.5%, and non metro/micro counties up 3.7%. Because of the notable increase in multifamily construction occurring in smaller markets, market shares have shifted over the past two years. Large metro core counties, where a plurality of construction takes place, saw a 4.8 percentage point drop in market share between Q1 of 2024 and 2025. The largest construction gains have been in low population density areas, with the combined market share for small metro outlying counites, micro counties and non metro/micro counties growing 2.2 percentage points from 7.8% to 10.0% between Q1 2024 and 2025. The first quarter of 2025 HBGI data along with an interactive HBGI map can be found at http://nahb.org/hbgi. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

HBGI Q1 2025: Multifamily Growth in Smaller MarketsJesse Wade2025-06-03T14:20:31-05:00

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