The story of employment loss and recovery across U.S. metro areas underscores the uneven geography of the COVID-19 economy. The resilience of local economies has since reshaped the post-pandemic landscape, revealing not only where recovery has taken root but also where it remains incomplete.
All types of mortgage activity rose on a year-over-year basis in October, supported by recent declines in interest rates. Notably, adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) applications more than doubled from a year ago, and refinancing activity continued to strengthen. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, fell 7.7% from September on a seasonally adjusted basis but was 39.0% higher than a year ago. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages fell 5.4 basis points to 6.37%, the lowest in over a year. Following a strong increase in September, refinancing activity in October dropped 10% month over month, while purchase applications decreased 4.8%. Compared to a year ago, purchase and refinance applications were up 18.1% and 63.0%, respectively. By loan type, fixed-rate mortgage applications decreased 7% from September but were 34% higher year-over-year. Adjustable-rate mortgage applications dropped 13% month-over-month, yet surged 116.5% from a year earlier, following a 124% annual gain in September. As a result, ARMs accounted for 9.44% of total applications in October, one of the highest shares in the past three years. The average loan size across all mortgages was $408,000, down 3% from the previous month. The average purchase loan size remained steady at $437,000, while the average refinance loan size declined 6% to $385,000. For adjustable-rate mortgages, the average loan size fell 5% to $938,000, compared to a 2% decline for fixed-rate mortgages to $353,000.
NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes issued the following statement after the Senate approved legislation that would fund the government and the National Flood Insurance Program through Jan. 30, 2026.
In April 2020, total payroll employment in the United States fell by an unprecedented 20.5 million, following a loss of 1.4 million in March, as the COVID-19 pandemic brought the economy to a sudden halt. The unemployment rate surged by 10.4 percentage points to 14.8% in April. It was the highest rate effectively since the Great Depression. Tracking the labor market impact is critical for understanding the follow-on effect on home building activity during the last five years. As people stayed at home and businesses shut down under government directives, millions of Americans lost their jobs. Initial unemployment insurance claims soared to 2.9 million during the week of March 21, 2020. For the following 19 consecutive weeks, more than one million Americans filed for unemployment each week, totaling roughly 50.9 million claims over just five months. While the national labor market suffered an unprecedented collapse in both speed and depth, the effects varied significantly across U.S. metro areas. Local economies experience dramatically different outcomes depending on their industrial composition, the feasibility of remote work, and the strictness of local public health restrictions. A map of metro areas across the United States reveals striking variations in employment losses from February 2020 to the pandemic’s employment trough. Nonfarm employment payrolls declined by anywhere from 5% to 35% across 393 metro areas. Kahului-Wailuku, Hawaii, experienced the steepest job losses, with employment plummeting by 35%. This metro area’s deep dependence on tourism and hospitality, particularly in accommodation and food services, left it vulnerable to travel restrictions and widespread shutdown. Similarly, Atlantic City-Hammonton, New Jersey, as a prime tourism destination, was devastated by pandemic-related closures. By May 2020, its total employment dropped 34% from the February 2020 level. Some metro areas experienced major setbacks tied to their dominant industries. In Elkhart-Goshen, Indiana, as the heart of the U.S. RV manufacturing industry, employment plunged 34% as production ground to a halt. At the other end of the spectrum, Logan, UT-ID, recorded the mildest downturn, with a relatively modest 5% employment drop, reflecting a more resilient local economy. In sheer numbers, New York-Newark-Jersey City, New York-New Jersey saw the largest employment losses in the nation, shedding nearly 2 million jobs, or about 20% of its pre-pandemic workforce. Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, California, followed closely, losing 1.1 million jobs, about 17% of its February 2020 level. Despite the historic scale of these losses, the U.S. labor market rebounded faster than many anticipated. Within just 26 months, overall employment had fully recovered, surpassing its February 2020 level to reach 152.4 million by June 2022. Yet, as with the initial losses, the recovery varied widely across metro areas. By August 2025, 93 of the 393 metro areas had still not regained their pre-pandemic employment levels. Lake Charles, Louisiana, remains the slowest to recover, with employment at only 87% of its February 2020 level. The region’s setbacks have been compounded by multiple disasters—COVID-19, followed by Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020—that disrupted both infrastructure and labor markets. Kankakee, Illinois (92% recovered), and Weirton–Steubenville, West Virginia–Ohio (93%), also lagged, highlighting how recovery can be delayed by structural and regional challenges. In contrast, many other metro areas have not only recovered but expanded beyond their pre-pandemic employment levels. As of August 2025, 300 metro areas have fully rebounded, with some even booming. Wildwood–The Villages, Florida, leads the nation with employment reaching 127% of its February 2020 level, followed by St. George, Utah, at 125%. Notably, the areas that suffered the sharpest employment declines in 2020 did not necessarily experience the slowest recoveries. Las Vegas–Henderson–North Las Vegas, Nevada, for instance, lost 277,900 jobs, about 26% of its workforce, but has rebounded strongly, reaching 109% of its pre-pandemic employment. By contrast, Enid, Oklahoma, which lost just 1,600 jobs, remains slightly below its February 2020 level, still 2% short of full recovery. The story of employment loss and recovery across U.S. metro areas underscores the uneven geography of the COVID-19 economy. The resilience of local economies has since reshaped the post-pandemic landscape, revealing not only where recovery has taken root but also where it remains incomplete. And of course, the health of local labor markets has important impacts on the status of local home building and remodeling conditions.
In 2024, Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S. totaled $5.1 billion, accounting for approximately 74% of the total value of softwood lumber imports. But where in the U.S. are these imports headed?
Overall consumer credit continued to rise for the third quarter of 2025, but the pace of growth remains slow. Student loan balances continue to rise as well, slowly returning to pre-COVID growth. Furthermore, credit card and auto loan balances continue to grow but at historically low rates. Although interest rates are still elevated, credit card and auto loan rates continue to decrease slightly. Total outstanding U.S. consumer credit reached $5.08 trillion for the third quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit Report. This is an increase of 2.72% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) compared to the previous quarter, and a 2.25% increase compared to last year. Nonrevolving Credit Nonrevolving credit, largely driven by student and auto loans (the G.19 report excludes mortgage loans), reached $3.77 trillion (SA) in the third quarter of 2025. This marks a 2.95% increase (SAAR) from the previous quarter, and a 2.14% increase from last year. Student loan debt stood at $1.84 trillion (NSA) for the third quarter of 2025, marking a 3.84% increase from a year ago. The end of the COVID-19 Emergency Relief—which allowed 0% interest and halted payments until September 1, 2023—led year-over-year growth to decline for four consecutive quarters, from Q3 2023 through Q2 2024 as borrowers resumed payments and took on less new debt. The past five quarters have shown a return to growth, nearly matching pre-pandemic growth rates. Auto loans reached a level of $1.57 trillion (NSA), showing a year-over-year increase of only 0.30%, marking one of the slowest growth rates since 2010. The deceleration in growth can be attributed to several factors, including stricter lending standards, elevated interest rates, and overall inflation. Auto loan rates for a 60-month new car stood at 7.64% (NSA) for the third quarter of 2025, a historically elevated level. However, auto rates have slowed modestly, decreasing by 0.76 percentage points compared to a year ago. Revolving Credit Revolving credit, primarily made up of credit card debt, rose to $1.31 trillion (SA) in the third quarter of 2025. This represents a 2.04% increase (SAAR) from the previous quarter and a 2.55% increase year-over-year. Both measures reflect a notable slowdown, marking some of the weakest growth in revolving credit in several years. This deceleration comes as credit card interest rates remain elevated, with the average rate held by commercial banks (NSA) at 21.39%. Although rates have hovered near historic highs since Q4 2022, the past three quarters have shown modest year-over-year declines, reflecting the impact of rate cuts that began in 2024.
As we celebrate Veterans Day, NAHB members across the country are showing that service takes many forms, including helping veterans recover after natural disasters.
International trade remains a source of volatility across the building materials sector, particularly in the softwood lumber market. Recent adjustments to antidumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) rates, combined with the imposition of Section 232 tariffs, have increased the trade-related cost of Canadian imports. As a result, the average duty rate on Canadian softwood lumber entering the U.S. has tripled, now hovering around 45%. These elevated trade barriers pose additional challenges for home builders who rely on Canadian lumber to meet construction demand. In 2024, Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S. totaled $5.1 billion, accounting for approximately 74% of the total value of softwood lumber imports. Canada remains the dominant supplier and a longstanding trade partner in the sector. Trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau enables tracking of import destinations at the state level. The majority of Canadian softwood lumber enters through the International Falls, MN port of entry, which saw $840 million in imports in 2024, which is roughly $150 million more than the next busiest port, Blaine, WA. These figures represent a decline from 2021 and 2022, largely due to lower U.S. lumber prices during the current period. This analysis invites the question of where Canadian softwood lumber imports are ultimately headed within the United States. In 2024, Washington state was the top destination, receiving $560.1 million worth of imports. Texas followed closely behind with $451.7 million, reflecting strong demand in the southern housing market. On the other end of the spectrum, Alaska recorded the lowest import volume, with just $284,053 in softwood lumber shipments. However, it is important to note a key limitation in the data. The “state of destination” reflects where the importer is located or where the shipment is initially received, not necessarily where the lumber is ultimately used. This means that while trade data can highlight logistical patterns, it does not fully capture the final point of consumption, especially in cases where materials are redistributed across state lines.
Three-bedroom homes made up 47% of all single-family homes built in 2024, their largest share of new home starts since 2011. All other bedroom number categories fell from 2023.
NAHB’s continuing advocacy for a flexible, performance-based alternative to OSHA’s proposed rule on heat injury prevention in the workplace recently included participation in informal public hearings and the submission of formal comments.