Remodelers on the Rise: How Renovation is Reshaping Residential Construction

2025-11-10T08:18:08-06:00

As the nation’s housing stock continues to age and new homes remain out of reach for many buyers, remodeling is capturing a growing share of the residential construction market, both in terms of the number of firms and employment. With most U.S. households unable to afford new construction, renovation has become a more practical and cost-effective alternative to improve housing conditions, driving demand on the consumer side. On the supply side, many home builders undertake remodeling projects to grow their business. NAHB’s analysis of the quarter-century of Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data suggests that the rise of remodelers is a sustained structural shift rather than a temporary post-pandemic surge. Remodeling Firms’ Share in Residential Construction is RisingOver the past 25 years, the number of remodeling establishments has nearly doubled—from fewer than 69,000 in 2000 to more than 128,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Remodelers now represent over half (56%) of all residential building construction (RBC) establishments. By contrast, during the mid-2000s housing boom, remodelers’ share consistently hovered around 38–39%, when the market was dominated by home builders, including new single-family and multifamily general contractors as well as speculative (spec) home builders. Although the remodeling sector was not immune to the 2008 housing crash, its losses were modest compared to the contraction of home building. Between 2007 and 2012, the number of remodeling establishments fell by 8%, while roughly one-third of home builders went out of business. As a result, the remodeler’s share of the RBC sector rose sharply after the crash, reaching 46% in 2011, and has continued to climb steadily ever since. During the post-pandemic housing boom, driven by low mortgage rates, the rise of remote work, and a renewed demand for larger living spaces, both remodelers and home builders experienced solid growth. However, remodelers expanded their ranks at a faster pace, with their share of RBC firms climbing to 54% by 2022. Less sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage rates than home builders, remodelers have continued to grow even amid a series of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes that sharply increased the cost of home purchases and slowed new construction. As of 2024, remodeling firms account for 56% of all RBC establishments. Remodeling Employment Share in RBC is Rising In the overall construction industry, which encompasses residential and non-residential building construction, as well as heavy/civil engineering construction, land subdivision, and specialty trade contractors, it is the latter that dominate the overall sector employment. However, the government employment surveys cannot identify what portion of subcontractors’ business is devoted to remodeling. As a result, RBC is the subsector that allows tracking the remodeling trends best. The analysis of employment trends in residential building construction reveals a similar pattern, with remodelers generating a rising number and share of jobs, largely at the expense of single-family general contractors. As of 2024, the remodeling sector accounted for almost half (49%) of RBC workers. In contrast, during the housing boom of the mid-2000s, only 30% of payroll employees worked for remodelers, while single-family general contractors employed 63% of the RBC workforce. The shift is even more pronounced within the production (nonsupervisory) workforce of the RBC industry.  More than half (51.2%) of these skilled craftsmen now work for remodeling firms, compared with roughly 30% in the early 2000s, according to NAHB’s analysis of historical data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Multifamily general contractors, who subcontract out most of their construction work, account for a smaller share of home building jobs but have also gained ground. Fueled by strong multifamily activity in 2022–2023, their share of RBC employment grew to 5% by 2024. For-sale builders account for an additional 6%. The typical remodeling firm remains small, averaging between 3 and 4 employees per establishment, comparable to levels observed during the mid-2000s housing boom. This stability suggests that the overall rise in remodeling employment stems primarily from the creation of new firms or the reclassification of home builders shifting toward renovation work as remodelers. It is likely that, as market conditions change, some home builders, particularly smaller single-family general contractors, pivot toward renovation projects to stay and grow their business. The remodeling sector’s lower barriers to entry, smaller upfront investments compared to new construction, and fewer regulatory hurdles make the transition easier. As more companies view remodeling as their primary activity and revenue source, more will be reclassified as remodeling establishments in the official data reporting. This is because data collection in the U.S. is guided by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Under NAICS, a company self-classifies and chooses the industry code that best captures its primary activity. In some surveys, such as the Economic Census, the Census Bureau emphasizes revenue sources as a primary metric for categorizing businesses. The steadily rising number of remodelers and the jobs they create underscores that renovation has become the reliable engine driving growth in the residential construction sector.

Remodelers on the Rise: How Renovation is Reshaping Residential Construction2025-11-10T08:18:08-06:00

Median Age of Construction Labor Force Holds at 42 

2025-10-21T09:15:17-05:00

The median age of construction labor force is 42, one year older than a typical worker in the national labor force, according to NAHB analysis of the most recent 2023 American Community Survey (ACS) data. However, more younger people are joining the construction industry. Despite some improvements since the peak of the skilled labor shortage in 2021, attracting skilled labor remains the primary long-term goal for the construction industry.   The median age of construction labor force varies across states. The color coding in the map below tracks the median age of people working in the construction industry.  The state with the oldest median age (46 years old) is Alaska, followed by Connecticut and Maine, where the median age of workers in construction is 45. Construction labor force is younger on average in the central part of the nation. For example, half of all people working in construction in Utah are under 39.  The second data series mapped above is the difference between the median age of workers in construction in each state and the median age of all industry workers. These estimates are reported as the numbers printed on each state. A positive number indicates that on average, people in construction are older than a typical worker in the state labor force. Alaska has the largest difference, where the median age of construction labor force is 6 years higher than the overall median in the state. On the other hand, a negative number indicates the construction labor force is, in general, younger than the state labor force. In Vermont and Delaware, the median age of workers in construction is 2 years younger than the overall median.   Analysis of the age distribution of workers in construction over time reveals that Gen Z, those born between 1997 and 2012, are more likely to enter the construction industry than Millennials, when they were the youngest generation in the labor force. They are drawn to careers in the construction industry due to factors such as new innovations in modern construction technologies, high costs of college education, competitive wages in construction, job security and potential for growth.    Generational shifts are reshaping the construction labor force. The share of Gen Z has more than doubled, increasing from 6.4% in 2019 to 14.1% in 2023, reflecting a growing pipeline of younger workers. Millennials’ share also rose from 35.7% to 37.7% over the same period. In contrast, Gen X declined from 36.6% to 33.7%, while Baby Boomers fell sharply from 20.6% to 14.2% as workers moved to retirement.  The chart below shows that, as of 2023, only about 14.1% of construction labor force were Gen Zers. Around 71% of the construction labor force were Millennials and Gen-Xers, who are considered in their prime working years, compared to 66% in overall labor force. The relative greater share of Gen X construction labor force reveals the current challenge of the labor shortage. Gen X is a smaller generational group than the Baby Boomers. The share of Baby Boomer construction labor force is 14.2%, implying that a substantial portion of the labor force will retire in the near future. Attracting more skilled labor, especially younger generations, remains the primary long-term goal for the construction industry. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Median Age of Construction Labor Force Holds at 42 2025-10-21T09:15:17-05:00

Better Growth, Larger Deficits: CBO Fiscal Outlook

2025-10-17T08:16:14-05:00

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a key nonpartisan score keeper that measures the effects of policy changes by the Federal Government. With several policy changes since January of this year, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), stricter immigration, and higher tariffs, the CBO updated its economic projections through 2028. Primarily, the CBO forecasts higher growth in the coming year with higher deficits also around the corner. The updated CBO view of the economy projects lower GDP growth in 2025 due to negative effects of tariffs. However, this is followed by stronger growth in 2026 as supply chains adjusted to tariffs and the OBBBA boosts consumption and private investment. More growth is forecasted for 2027 and 2028 as the economy adjusts to lower net immigration but is partially offset by higher domestic production because of tariff protection. In the CBO’s analysis: At the end of 2028, the level of real GDP is about 0.1 percent higher than it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections because of the economic effects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs, and lower net immigration; the effects of interactions among those factors; and adjustments to reflect recently published data. CBO Real GDP Growth Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, well above the decline of 0.5% estimated in the first quarter of this year. Per the CBO’s revised forecast, the largest increase in the quarterly growth forecast is in the second quarter of 2026. Real GDP growth was previously forecasted at 1.8% but is now forecasted at 2.5%, a 0.7 percentage point increase. The increases in GDP growth are a result of higher household after-tax income (boosts personal consumption), favorable treatment of private investment, and higher Federal Government spending on border security. All these factors boost overall demand, which in turn creates the risk of higher inflation. In the CBO’s assessment, this results in the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at a slower pace than it might have otherwise done. The CBO GDP growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 are essentially unchanged from the previous January forecast. On the residential construction front, 2025 has so far been a slower year than expected. In January, the CBO forecasted real residential fixed investment (RFI) to grow above 5% through the start of 2027 with the expectation that interest rates would fall faster, and pent-up demand coupled with a limited supply of existing homes for sale would boost new construction. Instead for 2025, interest rates have in fact remained higher for longer and put a damper on housing construction. RFI has negatively contributed to GDP for the first two quarters of 2025 and contracted 1.3% and 4.7% in the first and second quarters. The CBO’s forecasts show declines in RFI as home building starts entering 2026. The September forecasts are well below previous levels, with none forecasted above 3.0% until the first quarter of 2028. Federal Government Fiscal Outlook While the economy is expected to grow faster under the passage of OBBBA, the Federal Government’s fiscal outlook did not improve. The CBO’s original deficit outlook assumed that the 2017 tax policy changes would expire, leaving many taxpayers facing higher tax payments in 2026 but also reducing the level of annual federal deficits. With the passage of the OBBBA, which continued many of the policies of Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and established some new tax policy, annual deficit totals are a total of $3.4 trillion larger over the ten-year budget window than in the prior CBO outlook. Deficits are larger each year after 2025 but more pronounced in years leading up to 2028 as some provisions expire in the years following. The deficit is expected to be smaller by $21.1 billion in 2025 and peak at $602.4 billion larger in 2027. For housing stakeholders, long-term fiscal deficits risk higher inflation and therefore higher interest rates. More government debt means more expensive mortgages and therefore more challenging housing affordability conditions. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Better Growth, Larger Deficits: CBO Fiscal Outlook2025-10-17T08:16:14-05:00

Hispanics Comprise Nearly One-Third of the Construction Labor Force 

2025-10-13T09:21:06-05:00

Diversifying the construction labor force remains a key priority amid persistent skilled labor shortages. According to the 2023 American Community Survey, non-Hispanic White workers still account for the majority of the construction industry at 57%. Hispanic workers now represent nearly one-third of the labor force at 32%, followed by non-Hispanic Black workers at 5% and non-Hispanic Asian workers at 1.8%.  The most notable trend in construction labor force has been the steady rise of Hispanic participation. Between 2010 and 2023, the number of Hispanic workers in construction increased from 2.5 million to almost 3.8 million. Over the same period, their share of the labor force climbed from 23.6% to 32%, meaning that nearly one in three construction workers today is Hispanic.  Hispanics workers comprise a larger share in the construction than the broader economy, making up 31.9% of the construction labor force compared with 19.2 % across all industries. Non-Hispanic White workers account for 57.5% of the construction labor force, about the same as their share across all industries at 58.3%. Black and Asian workers, by contrast, remain underrepresented in construction. The share of Hispanic workers varies widely across states. In Maine, only 1% of workers in construction are Hispanic, while in New Mexico, Texas, California, and Nevada, more than half the construction labor force is Hispanic. Overall, Hispanic construction workers are most concentrated in the South and West, where Hispanic populations are larger. Just three states—Texas with 803,000 workers, California with 772,000, and Florida with 374,000—together employ 52% of the nation’s Hispanic construction labor force. New Mexico leads in proportional terms, with 64% of its construction labor force identifying as Hispanic, followed by Texas at 61% and California at 59%.  In the Northeast, the construction industry remains dominated by non-Hispanic White workers. In New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine, they account for more than 90% of the labor force. Non-Hispanic Black workers make up only 5% of construction labor force nationwide, compared with nearly 12% across all industries, though their shares are much higher in Mississippi at 18%, Louisiana at 17%, and Maryland at 14%. Non-Hispanic Asian workers account for less than 2% of the construction labor force overall, though they are a significant presence in Hawaii, where they comprise 29% of construction labor force. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Hispanics Comprise Nearly One-Third of the Construction Labor Force 2025-10-13T09:21:06-05:00

Minority-Owned Residential Building Firms Continue to Rise

2025-10-07T08:15:19-05:00

The share of minority-owned new residential builders and remodelers has more than doubled since the Great Recession, with noticeable gains from 2017 to 2022.  Nevertheless, when compared to the overall U.S. population, minority-owned firms continue to be underrepresented within both housing sectors. New Residential Builders Based on data from the Annual Business Survey (ABS) from the U.S. Census Bureau, 14% of new residential building firms1 were minority-owned in 2022.  The Census classifies firms as minority-owned if the owner with majority share (i.e., 51% or more of stock or equity in the business) identifies as “any race and ethnicity combination other than non-Hispanic and White.”  In 2007, when NAHB began tracking this data, only 6% of residential builders were minority-owned2. From 2017 to 2022, the number of minority-owned new residential builder firms increased 64%, from 4,938 to 9,965. Residential Remodelers The share of minority–owned residential remodeling firms3 also continues to rise, more than doubling from 8% in 2007 to 18% in 2022.  From 2017 to 2022, the number of minority-owned residential remodeling firms jumped by 91%, from 11,565 to 22,119. In contrast to the 14% of residential builders and 18% of residential remodelers that were minority-owned in 2022, around 40% of the overall U.S. population that year belonged to a racial minority group4. New residential building firms comprise of new single-family housing construction (NAICS: 236115), new multifamily housing construction (NAICS: 236116), and new housing for-sale builders (NAICS: 236117).Data for 2007 and 2012 within this blog post was taken from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Survey of Business Owners (SBO). The SBO was discontinued in 2012 and replaced by the ABS moving forward.NAICS: 236118Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 American Community Survey. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Minority-Owned Residential Building Firms Continue to Rise2025-10-07T08:15:19-05:00

Top 10 Builder Market Share Across Metros

2025-07-22T08:15:58-05:00

An earlier post described how the top 10 builders1 in the country captured a record 44.7% of new single-family closings in 2024. BUILDER Magazine has now released additional data on the top ten builders within each of the 50 largest new home markets in the U.S., ranked by single-family permits. It is important to note that this post does not focus on the top ten largest home builders nationally; instead, it analyzes the top ten list within each of the largest 50 new housing markets. The 2024 data show that the top 10 builder concentration in the 50 largest markets ranged from 38.9% in Kansas City, MO-KS to 97.8% in Cincinnati, OH. In 11 metro areas, the top ten builders’ market share exceeded 90%. Across all 50 metro areas, the average market share of the top 10 builders was 79.3%, up from 78.2% in 2023.   Looking at the results on a map reveals that southern California, South Carolina, Florida, and parts of the Midwest include multiple highly concentrated markets, while Texas and the Northwest include markets with lower levels of concentration (figure 1). Lennar and D.R. Horton each made the top ten builder list in 46 markets, the most among all builders. PulteGroup was next with 36 metro markets, followed by NVR and Meritage Homes with 22 and 20 metro markets, respectively. From 2023 to 2024, 27 metro areas saw an increase in their top 10 builders’ market share, compared with 36 increases from 2022 to 2023. Seven metro areas experienced a double-digit increase in 2024: Oklahoma City, OK (+20.7 percentage points, 82.8%) Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA (+14.7 percentage points, 76.8%) Punta Gorda, FL (+11.5 percentage points, 85.9%) Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (+10.7 percentage points, 87.5%) Greenville-Anderson, SC (+10.6 percentage points, 89.3%) Salt Lake City, UT (+10.5 percentage points, 69.8%) Charleston-North Charleston, SC (+10.4 percentage points, 92.3%) Meanwhile, 20 metro areas saw a decline in their top 10 builders’ market share from 2023 to 2024, up from only 9 decreases from 2022 to 2023. The largest decreases were seen in: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL (-18.1 percentage points, 72.4%) Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (-14.7 percentage points, 75.6%) Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (-11.6 percentage points, 76.8%) Tucson, AZ (-10.4 percentage points, 82.4% Of the remaining three largest markets, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL saw no change in its top ten builder concentration (96.2%) from 2023 to 2024, while Fresno, CA and Spartanburg, SC are new to the top 50 market list in 2024. Only builders who build for-sale units are included in the ranking. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Top 10 Builder Market Share Across Metros2025-07-22T08:15:58-05:00

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