Credit Conditions for Builders Tighten

2025-08-15T08:16:00-05:00

For the fourteenth consecutive quarter, builders and developers reported tighter credit conditions on loans for residential Land Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) in NAHB’s quarterly survey on AD&C Financing.   In the second quarter of 2025, the NAHB survey’s net easing index posted a reading of -12.3 (the negative number indicating that credit tightened since the previous quarter).  This is in reasonably close agreement with the second quarter reading of -9.7 for the similar net easing index derived from the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers.  Like the NAHB net easing index, the one from the Fed has been in negative territory (indicating credit tightening) for fourteen consecutive quarters.  Over the past year the additional tightening indicated by both indices has been relatively modest, with index levels hovering between -20 and 0.  Modest or not, however, after fourteen straight quarters of tightening, many builders are probably wondering how much room lenders have left to tighten further.     More details from the Fed’s survey of lenders—including measures of demand and net easing for residential mortgages—appeared in a previous post. According to NAHB builders, the most common ways lenders tightened credit on AD&C loans in the second quarter were by reducing the amount they are willing to lend (cited by 60% of the builders who reported tighter credit), requiring personal guarantees (53%), increasing the interest rate and not making new loans (47% each), and increasing documentation requirements (40%).  Also in the second quarter, the cost of credit declined on loans made specifically for residential land acquisition (the “A” in AD&C).  The average contract interest rate on the loans declined from 8.23% to 7.82%, while the average initial points dropped from 0.71% to 0.56%.  As a result, the average effective interest rate (which takes both the contract rate and initial points into account) on land acquisition loans declined from 10.68% to 9.95%. For the other three categories of AD&C loans tracked in the NAHB survey, credit became more expensive since the previous quarter.  The average contract interest rate increased on loans for land development (from 7.86% to 8.04%) and speculative single-family construction (from 8.08% to 8.17%), while declining only slightly (from 7.96% to 7.95%) on loans for pre-sold single-family construction.  Meanwhile, average initial points were unchanged at 0.74% on loans for land development, but increased from 0.68% to 0.72% on loans for speculative single-family construction, and from 0.45% to 0.58% on loans for pre-sold single-family construction. Those combinations of quarter-to-quarter changes took the effective interest up from 11.50% to 11.77%  on loans for land development, from 12.59% to 12.82% on loans for speculative single-family construction, and from 12.49% to 12.73% on loans for pre-sold single-family construction. Although the average effective interest rate was higher in 2025 Q2 than in 2025 Q1 for three of the four categories of AD&C loans, the rate was down year-over-year for all four.  Financing costs for builders and developers could decline further over the next quarter, especially if (as NAHB expects) the Federal Reserve reduces the target federal funds rate at its September meeting.  In fact, as discussed in NAHB’s post on the Fed’s July meeting, a reduction in construction financing costs rather than an effect on mortgage rates is the main benefit builders can expect from easier monetary policy. More detail on credit conditions for residential builders and developers is available on NAHB’s AD&C Financing Survey web page. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Credit Conditions for Builders Tighten2025-08-15T08:16:00-05:00

Student Loan Balances Rise

2025-08-12T11:17:05-05:00

Overall consumer credit continued to rise in 2025, but the pace of growth remains slow. Student loan balances also rose year-over-year as borrowers resumed payments following the end of pandemic-era relief. Meanwhile, credit card and auto loan debt both experienced their slowest annual growth rates in years. Despite historically high interest rates, credit card and auto loan rates have eased slightly, providing some relief for consumers facing elevated borrowing costs. Total outstanding U.S. consumer credit reached $5.05 trillion for the second quarter of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit Report. This is an increase of 2.32% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) compared to the previous quarter, and a 2.09% increase compared to last year. Both rates have increased from last quarter. Nonrevolving Credit Nonrevolving credit, largely driven by student and auto loans (the G.19 report excludes mortgage loans), reached $3.76 trillion (SA) in the second quarter of 2025. This marks a 2.90% increase (SAAR) from the previous quarter, and a 1.94% increase from last year. Student loan debt stood at $1.81 trillion (NSA) for the second quarter of 2025, marking a 4.16% increase from a year ago. The end of the COVID-19 Emergency Relief—which allowed 0% interest and halted payments until September 1, 2023—led year-over-year growth to decline for four consecutive quarters, from Q3 2023 through Q2 2024 as borrowers resumed payments and took on less new debt. The past four quarters have shown a return to growth, nearly matching pre-pandemic growth rates. Auto loans reached a level of $1.56 trillion (NSA), showing a year-over-year increase of only 0.31%, marking the slowest growth rate since 2010. The deceleration in growth can be attributed to several factors, including stricter lending standards, elevated interest rates, and overall inflation. Auto loan rates for a 60-month new car stood at 7.67% (NSA) for the second quarter of 2025, a historically elevated level. However, auto rates have slowed modestly, decreasing by 0.53 percentage points compared to a year ago. Revolving Credit Revolving credit, primarily made up of credit card debt, rose to $1.30 trillion (SA) in the second quarter of 2025. This represents a 0.66% increase (SAAR) from the previous quarter and a 2.54% increase year-over-year. Both measures reflect a notable slowdown, marking the weakest growth in revolving credit in several years. This deceleration comes as credit card interest rates remain elevated, with the average rate held by commercial banks (NSA) at 21.16%. Although rates have hovered near historic hi­ghs since Q4 2022, the past two quarters have shown modest year-over-year declines, reflecting the impact of rate cuts that began in 2024. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Student Loan Balances Rise2025-08-12T11:17:05-05:00

Weaker Demand for Residential Mortgages in Second Quarter

2025-08-08T09:31:35-05:00

In the second quarter of 2025, overall demand for residential mortgages was weaker, while lending standards for most types of residential mortgages were essentially unchanged1, according to the recent release of the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS).  For commercial real estate (CRE) loans, lending standards for construction & development were modestly tighter, while demand was moderately weaker. However, for multifamily loans within the CRE category, lending conditions and demand were essentially unchanged for the third consecutive quarter.  Last week, the Federal Reserve left its monetary policy stance (i.e., Federal Funds rate) unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating in his statement that the Fed “is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate [maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2%]” and the “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”.  NAHB is still forecasting two interest rate cuts before the end of 2025. Residential Mortgages In the second quarter of 2025, five of seven residential mortgage loan categories saw a neutral net easing index (i.e., 0) for lending conditions.  Only Qualified Mortgage (QM) non-jumbo non-GSE eligible loans experienced easing, as evidenced by a positive2 value (+1.8). Meanwhile, the only loans to experience tightening were non-QM non-jumbo loans at -2.0.  Nevertheless, based on the Federal Reserve classification of any reading between -5 and +5 as “essentially unchanged,” all seven categories fell within this range. All residential mortgage loan categories reported at least modestly weaker demand in the second quarter of 2025, except for QM-jumbo which was essentially unchanged for the second consecutive quarter.  Most notably, non-QM non-jumbo (-22.0%) and subprime (-20.0%) loans experienced significantly weaker demand during the quarter.  The net percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for most of the residential mortgage loan categories has been negative for at least four years. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Loans Across CRE loan categories, construction & development loans recorded a net easing index of -9.7 for the second quarter of 2025, indicating modestly tighter credit conditions.  For multifamily loans, the net easing index was -4.8, or essentially unchanged.  Both categories of CRE loans show tightening of lending conditions (i.e., net easing indexes below zero) since Q2 2022.  However, the tightening has become less defined recently for multifamily, with its net easing index essentially unchanged (i.e., between -5.0 and +5.0) for three consecutive quarters. The net percentage of banks reporting stronger demand was -11.3% for construction & development loans and -3.2% for multifamily loans, with negative numbers indicating weakening demand.  Like the trend for lending conditions, demand for multifamily loans has experienced unchanged conditions (i.e., between -5.0% and +5.0%) for three straight quarters. The Federal Reserve uses the following descriptors when analyzing results from the survey which will be used, in principle, within this blog post as well: – “Remained basically unchanged” means that the change or actual reading is greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 5 percent. – “Modest” means that the change or actual reading is greater than 5 and less than or equal to 10 percent. – “Moderate” means that the change or actual reading is greater than 10 and less than or equal to 20 percent. – “Significant” means that the change or actual reading is greater than 20 and less than or equal to 50 percent. – “Major” means that the change or actual reading is greater than or equal to 50 percent.A value above zero (i.e., positive) indicates that lending conditions are easing while a value below zero (i.e., negative) indicates that lending conditions are tightening. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Weaker Demand for Residential Mortgages in Second Quarter2025-08-08T09:31:35-05:00

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