Lots Still in Relatively Short Supply

2025-09-04T11:15:46-05:00

Although shortages are not quite as widespread as they were in 2021, obtaining lots remains a challenge for many builders, according to recent results from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) survey.  In special questions on the May 2025 HMI survey, 38% of single-family builders characterized the supply of lots as low, and another 26% said it was very low, for a total of 64% reporting some type of shortage. This is down slightly from the 67% reported in both 2023 and 2024, and down significantly from the peak of 76% in 2021 (a year after the COVID-19 outbreak). Nevertheless, at 64% the shortage percentage is higher than it had been at any time between 1997 (when NAHB first began tracking the number) and 2016. The current lot shortage seems particularly severe relative to the level of new housing production. Before the historic 2009-2010 trough in housing starts, the share of builders reporting a low or very low supply of lots never exceeded 53%—even in 2005 when starts topped 2.0 million.  However, by 2015, when starts had partially recovered (from the trough of under 600,000 to 1.1 million), the share of builders reporting lot shortages unexpectedly climbed to over 60%, and it has remained there stubbornly ever since. Over the past three years, the annual starts rate has been consistently under 1.5 million (approximately the long-run average from 1970 through 2000), while the share of builders reporting a low availability of lots has never dipped below 64%. In addition to overall lot supply, the HMI survey asks builders to rate the supply of A, B and C lots individually. Not surprisingly, shortages tend to be most acute among lots in the most desirable, or “A,” locations. In the May 2025 survey, 67% of builders said that the supply of “A” lots was low or very low, compared to 62% for “B” lots and 52% for “C” lots. None of these percentages were drastically different than they had been in 2024. A shortage of lots is not the only headwind the home building industry is facing. Rising cost of materials, availability of credit for builders, finding enough skilled labor, and inefficient regulatory costs all remain significant issues. An inadequate supply of lots simply adds to the list of challenges making it difficult to build homes, especially at the lower end of the price scale, and adversely impacting housing affordability.  Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Lots Still in Relatively Short Supply2025-09-04T11:15:46-05:00

Sales of Lower-Priced New Single-Family Homes Declined Over the Past Five Years

2025-07-21T09:29:41-05:00

From 2020 to 2024, sales of lower-priced new homes declined significantly as the market moved toward higher-priced segments. Rising construction costs—driven by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages—as well as higher regulatory costs, made it increasingly difficult for builders to construct affordable homes. On the other hand, low levels of inventory pushed up the price of new single-family homes, deepening the housing affordability crisis for first-time and middle-income buyers. National New Home Sales by Sales Price Data from the U.S. Census’s Survey of Construction (SOC) shows that total sales of new single-family homes declined by 17% during the 2020—2024 period. Meanwhile, the median sales price of new single-family homes increased significantly, rising from $330,900 in 2020 to $420,300 in 2024. This steep rise in sales price has placed additional pressure on prospective home buyers, particularly those seeking homes in the lower-priced segments. Between 2020 and 2024, the market for new single-family homes experienced significant shifts in the distribution of sales by price range. Most notably, there was a sharp decline in sales of lower-priced homes. Homes priced under $300,000 experienced a 65% decline in sales, while sales of homes priced between $300,000 and $399,999 fell by 10%. In contrast, higher-end segments saw substantial growth, with sales of homes priced between $800,000 and $999,999 more than doubling and those priced at $1,000,000 or more increasing by 85%. The market share of lower-priced homes declined dramatically. In 2020, homes priced under $300,000 accounted for 40% of the total new single-family home sales, making them a dominant category. By 2024, this category had dropped to the third largest, overtaken by homes in the $300,000—$399,999 and $400,000—$499,999 ranges. Meanwhile, the share of higher-priced homes expanded, reflecting a broader shift toward more expensive construction and away from affordability. Regional New Home Sales by Sales Price The regional picture mirrors these national trends, though the magnitude and affected price category vary by geography. Between 2020 and 2024, all four regions—the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West—saw declines in new home sales. The West experienced the steepest drop at 28%, followed by the Midwest at 14%, the South at 13%, and the Northeast at 8%. The declines mainly reflect significant declines in lower-priced home sales. In the Midwest and South, the declines in new home sales were limited to homes priced under $300,000. In the Northeast and West, where the regions tend to have higher median home prices, sales declines occurred in multiple price categories. The Northeast saw a broader decline in new homes sold under $600,000, while new home sales in the West reported declines in three price categories under $500,000. Furthermore, all four regions also experienced a decline in the market share of lower-priced homes. In 2020, more than half of the new homes sold in the Midwest and South were priced under $300,000. By 2024, that share had plummeted to just 16% in the Midwest and 23% in the South. The Northeast and West also saw notable shifts, with the share of homes priced between $300,000 and $499,999 dropping sharply over the same period. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Sales of Lower-Priced New Single-Family Homes Declined Over the Past Five Years2025-07-21T09:29:41-05:00

How Lumber Prices are Affecting Homebuilders

2021-05-13T12:28:42-05:00

They say a picture can tell a thousand words. Well, this new visual representation of the impact of lumber pricing on homebuilders certainly fits. Published on May 8th by Visual Capitalist, the amazing infographic shows the impact of lumber

How Lumber Prices are Affecting Homebuilders2021-05-13T12:28:42-05:00

About My Work

Phasellus non ante ac dui sagittis volutpat. Curabitur a quam nisl. Nam est elit, congue et quam id, laoreet consequat erat. Aenean porta placerat efficitur. Vestibulum et dictum massa, ac finibus turpis.

Recent Works

Recent Posts