94% Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share

2025-05-23T08:20:52-05:00

According to NAHB analysis of quarterly Census data, the count of multifamily, for-rent housing starts increased during the first quarter of 2025. For the quarter, 88,000 multifamily residences started construction. Of this total, 83,000 were built-for-rent. This was almost 11% higher than the first quarter of 2024. The market share of rental units of multifamily construction starts was 94% for the first quarter. A historical low market share of 47% for bult-for-rent multifamily construction was set during the third quarter of 2005, during the condo building boom. An average share of 80% was registered during the 1980-2002 period. For the first quarter, there were 5,000 multifamily condo unit construction starts, flat from a year ago. An elevated rental share of multifamily construction is holding typical apartment size below levels seen during the pre-Great Recession period. However, according to the first quarter 2025 data, the average square footage of multifamily construction starts fell back to 1,027 square feet. The median declined to 1,027 square feet. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

94% Multifamily Built-for-Rent Share2025-05-23T08:20:52-05:00

Gains for Multifamily Missing Middle over Last Year

2025-05-21T08:15:37-05:00

The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has generally disappointed since the Great Recession. However, there has been a noticeable uptick for this type of housing construction in recent data. For the first quarter of 2025, there were 5,000 2- to 4-unit housing unit construction starts. This is flat relative to the first quarter of 2024. However, over the last four quarters this type of construction totaled 23,000 units, up 53% over the four quarters prior to that period. As a share of all multifamily production, 2- to 4-unit development was just above 6% of total multifamily development for the first quarter. However this is still lower than recent historic trends. From 2000 to 2010, such home construction made up a little less than 11% of total multifamily construction. Construction of the missing middle has clearly lagged during the post-Great Recession period and will continue to do so without zoning reform focused on light-touch density. But recent data offer hope for additional housing supply for these kind of homes. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Gains for Multifamily Missing Middle over Last Year2025-05-21T08:15:37-05:00

Single-Family Home Size Trending Higher

2025-05-20T12:18:16-05:00

An expected impact of the virus crisis was a need for more residential space, as people used homes for more purposes including work. Home size correspondingly increased in 2021 as interest rates reached historic lows. However, as interest rates increased in 2022 and 2023, and housing affordability worsened, the demand for home size has trended lower. According to first quarter 2025 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area was 2,190 square feet, near the highest reading since mid-2023. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes registered at 2,408 square feet. The average size of a new single-family home, on a one-year moving average basis, trended higher to 2,386 square feet, while the median size is at 2,172 square feet. Home size increased from 2009 to 2015 as entry-level new construction lost market share. Home size declined between 2016 and 2020 as more starter homes were developed. After a brief increase during the post-COVID building boom, home size has trended lower due to declining affordability conditions. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Single-Family Home Size Trending Higher2025-05-20T12:18:16-05:00

Slight Gains for Townhouse Construction

2025-05-20T08:15:37-05:00

Townhouse construction expanded more than 2 percent on a year-over-year basis per data from the first quarter of 2025. According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the first quarter of 2025, single-family attached starts totaled 43,000. Over the last four quarters, townhouse construction starts totaled a strong 175,000 homes, which is 2% higher than the prior four-quarter period (171,000). Townhouses made up 19% of single-family housing starts for the first quarter of the year, near a data series high. Using a one-year moving average, the market share of newly-built townhouses stood at 17.6% of all single-family starts for the first quarter. With recent gains, the four-quarter moving average market share is the highest on record, for data going back to 1985. Prior to the current cycle, the peak market share of the last two decades for townhouse construction was set during the first quarter of 2008, when the percentage reached 14.6% on a one-year moving average basis. This high point was set after a fairly consistent increase in the share beginning in the early 1990s. The long-run prospects for townhouse construction are positive given growing numbers of homebuyers looking for medium-density residential neighborhoods, such as urban villages that offer walkable environments and other amenities. Where it can be zoned, it can be built. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Slight Gains for Townhouse Construction2025-05-20T08:15:37-05:00

Flat Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent

2025-05-19T13:18:19-05:00

Single-family built-for-rent construction posted flat growth on a year-over-year basis, as a higher cost of financing crowded out development activity. According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 19,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the first quarter of 2025. This is flat relative to the first quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, 84,000 such homes began construction, which is a 4% increase compared to the 81,000 estimated SFBFR starts in the four quarters prior to that period. The SFBFR market is a source of inventory amid challenges over housing affordability and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market, particularly during a period when a growing number of people want more space and a single-family structure. Single-family built-for-rent construction differs in terms of structural characteristics compared to other newly-built single-family homes, particularly with respect to home size. However, investor demand for single-family homes, both existing and new, has cooled with higher interest rates. Given the relatively small size of this market segment, the quarter-to-quarter movements typically are not statistically significant. The current four-quarter moving average of market share (8%) is nonetheless higher than the historical average of 2.7% (1992-2012). Importantly, as measured for this analysis, the estimates noted above include only homes built and held by the builder for rental purposes. The estimates exclude homes that are sold to another party for rental purposes, which NAHB estimates may represent another three to five percent of single-family starts based on industry surveys. The Census data notes an elevated share of single-family homes built as condos (non-fee simple), with this share averaging more than 4% over recent quarters. Some, but certainly not all, of these homes will be used for rental purposes. Additionally, it is theoretically possible some single-family built-for-rent units are being counted in multifamily starts, as a form of “horizontal multifamily,” given these units are often built on a single plat of land. However, spot checks by NAHB with permitting offices indicate no evidence of this data issue occurring. With the onset of the Great Recession and declines for the homeownership rate, the share of built-for-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. While the market share of SFBFR homes is small, it has clearly expanded. Given affordability challenges in the for-sale market, the SFBFR market will likely retain an elevated market share. However, in the near-term, SFBFR construction is likely to slow until the return on new deals improves. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Flat Growth for Single-Family Built-for-Rent2025-05-19T13:18:19-05:00

Flat Custom Home Building Trends

2025-05-19T08:18:02-05:00

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates flat year-over year growth for custom home builders. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home building but is more sensitive to changes in household wealth and stock prices. There were 34,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of 2025. This was unchanged relative to the first quarter of 2024. Over the last four quarters, custom housing starts totaled 181,000 homes, just more than a 2% increase compared to the prior four quarter total (177,000). Currently, the market share of custom home building, based on a one-year moving average, is approximately 18% of total single-family starts. This is down from a prior cycle peak of 31.5% set during the second quarter of 2009 and the 21% recent peak rate at the beginning of 2023, after which spec home building gained market share. Note that this definition of custom home building does not include homes intended for sale, so the analysis in this post uses a narrow definition of the sector. It represents home construction undertaken on a contract basis for which the builder does not hold tax basis in the structure during construction. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Flat Custom Home Building Trends2025-05-19T08:18:02-05:00

Permit Activity Declines in March 2025

2025-05-14T09:17:31-05:00

Permits continue a downhill trend for the third month in a row. Over the first three months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 232,221. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 3.8% over the March 2024 level of 241311. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 113,344. This is 3.7% below the March 2024 level of 117,695. Year-to-date ending in March, single-family permits were down in three out of the four regions. The Northeast posted an increase of 9.2%. The Midwest was down by 1.9%, the South was down by 4.8%, and the West was down by 5.0% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, two out of the four regions posted increases. The South was up by 14.6% and the Midwest was up by 12.9%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 13.0% and the Northeast declined steeply by 42.8%. Between March 2025 YTD and March 2024 YTD, 20 states posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 29.6% in Alaska to 0.2% in Utah. The remaining 30 states and the District of Columbia reported declines in single-family permits with New Mexico reporting the steepest decline of 32.7%. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 64.3% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 38,425 permits over the first three months 2025, which is a decline of 5.5% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 8.8%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted a decline of 0.1%. Between March 2025 YTD and March 2024 YTD, 23 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 27 states recorded a decline. Alaska (+533.3%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 12 to 76, while New York had the biggest decline of 64.8% from 11,316 to 3,984. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 61.7% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first three months of 2025, Florida, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced an increase of 48.8%. Texas, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, saw a decline of 0.5%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 22.7%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Permit Activity Declines in March 20252025-05-14T09:17:31-05:00

March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips

2025-05-02T09:14:37-05:00

Private residential construction spending declined by 0.4% in March, largely driven by a decrease in home improvement spending. This decline followed five consecutive months of growth. Despite the monthly drop, spending remained 2.8% higher than a year ago, showing the resilience of the housing market. According to the latest U.S Census Construction Spending data, improvement spending declined by 1.2% in March, aligned with the weakness in the Remodeling Market Sentiment of the first quarter of 2025. Still, spending on improvements was 13.4% higher than in March of 2024. Meanwhile, spending on single-family construction edged up by 0.1% in March, continuing its growth after a five-month decline from April to August 2024. However, single-family construction spending remained 0.8% lower than a year ago. Multifamily construction spending stayed unchanged in March, staying in the downward trends that began in December 2023. Compared to March 2024, it was down 12.1%. The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates and concerns over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023. Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 1.6% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of power ($8.7 billion), followed by the manufacturing category ($8.1 billion). Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

March Private Residential Construction Spending Dips2025-05-02T09:14:37-05:00

Permits Pullback in February 2025

2025-04-15T09:19:44-05:00

Permits continue the downward trend for the second month in a row. Over the first two months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 147,119. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 5.2% over the February 2024 level of 155,236. For multifamily, the total number of permits issued nationwide reached 72,979. This is 6.7% below the February 2024 level of 78,259. Year-to-date ending in February, single-family permits were down in all four regions. The Northeast posted the smallest decline of 0.1%, the Midwest was down by 3.0%, the West was down by 4.5% and the South was down by 6.3% in single-family permits during this time. For multifamily permits, two out of the four regions posted increases. The South was up by 11.8% and the Midwest was up by 9.7%. Meanwhile, the West posted a decline of 18.0% and the Northeast declined steeply by 45.2%. Between February 2025 YTD and February 2024 YTD, 19 states and the District of Columbia posted an increase in single-family permits. The range of increases spanned 133.3% in the District of Columbia to 0.1% in New Jersey. The remaining 31 states reported declines in single-family permits with West Virginia reporting the steepest decline of 21.1%. The ten states issuing the highest number of single-family permits combined accounted for 65.6% of the total single-family permits issued. Texas, the state with the highest number of single-family permits, issued 24,960 permits over the first two months 2025, which is a decline of 5.6% compared to the same period last year. The second highest state, Florida, was down by 8.3%, while the third highest, North Carolina, posted a decline of 4.5%. Between February 2025 YTD and February 2024 YTD, 26 states and the District of Columbia recorded growth in multifamily permits, while 24 states recorded a decline. Iowa (+177.4%) led the way with a sharp rise in multifamily permits from 354 to 982, while Arizona had the biggest decline of 67.5% from 3,209 to 1,044. The ten states issuing the highest number of multifamily permits combined accounted for 63.2% of the multifamily permits issued. Over the first two months of 2025, Florida, the state with the highest number of multifamily permits issued, experienced an increase of 63.0%. Texas, the second-highest state in multifamily permits, saw a decline of 9.0%. California, the third largest multifamily issuing state, decreased by 21.7%. At the local level, below are the top ten metro areas that issued the highest number of single-family permits. For multifamily permits, below are the top ten local areas that issued the highest number of permits. Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Permits Pullback in February 20252025-04-15T09:19:44-05:00

Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in February 

2025-04-01T13:16:50-05:00

Private residential construction spending increased by 1.3% in February, rebounding from a 1.2% dip in January. The growth was largely driven by higher spending on single-family construction and residential improvements. On a year-over-year basis, the February report showed a 1.6% gain, indicating a modest growth in private residential construction spending during market uncertainties.  The monthly increase in total private construction spending was primarily driven by gains in spending on single-family construction and residential improvements. Single-family construction spending was up 1% for the month, continuing to grow after a five-month decline from April to August 2024. This growth is consistent with strong single-family housing starts in February. However, single-family construction spending remained 0.1% lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, improvement spending rose by 2% in February and was 8.9% higher compared to the same period last year. In contrast, multifamily construction spending stayed flat in February, extending the downward trend that began in December 2023. Compared to a year ago, multifamily construction spending was down 11.6%.  The NAHB construction spending index is shown in the graph below. The index illustrates how   spending on single-family construction has slowed since early 2024 under the pressure of elevated interest rates and concerns over building material tariffs. Multifamily construction spending growth has also slowed down after the peak in July 2023. Meanwhile, improvement spending has increased its pace since late 2023.   Spending on private nonresidential construction was up 2.5% over a year ago. The annual private nonresidential spending increase was mainly due to higher spending for the class of manufacturing ($10.5 billion), followed by the power category ($6.4 billion).  Discover more from Eye On Housing Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

Private Residential Construction Spending Rises in February 2025-04-01T13:16:50-05:00
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