Metro Areas Trail Lower Density Markets for Apartment Construction Growth


In the first quarter of 2022, multifamily home building showed greater growth across all regional markets compared to the first quarter of 2021, per the NAHB’s Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Apartment construction far outpaced single-family building in all regional geographies but especially in lower density markets1. Low rental vacancy rates and rising rents gave multifamily developers confidence to continue building despite rising costs for land, labor, and materials. Receding virus concerns have also enticed prospective renters to move closer to urban centers. Multifamily home building in heavily populated urban areas, consisting of large metro area core counties, large metro area suburban counties, and small metro area core counties, grew by 17.4%, 31.4%, and 33.7%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2022. In the same quarter of the previous year, large metro area core counties and suburban counties multifamily home building declined by 3.6% and 9.5%, respectively, and small metro areas’ core counties grew by 5.5%. Together, urban areas make up 87% of the multifamily home building market. Lower density markets’ combined market share increased from the first quarter of 2021 by 1.4 percentage points to 13.7%. Large metro area core counties lost significant market share in the first quarter of 2022, registering a 3.3 percentage point decline from the first quarter of 2021 to 36.9%, its largest year-over-year market share loss on the HBGI’s record. It was also the largest such loss among all the regional submarkets throughout the span of the HBGI. The first quarter data additionally show more activity in lower density markets. On a four-quarter moving average year-over-year basis, multifamily home building in micro counties, large metro area outlying counties, small metro area outlying counties, and non-metro, non-micro counties grew by 44%, 45%, 52%, and 83%, respectively. In the first quarter of the previous year, multifamily home building in these geographies grew by 10.1%, 6.0%, 7.7%, and -5.8%. In contrast to previous HBGI iterations, this HBGI analysis reinterprets the definition of lower density markets to include large metro outlying counties counties and exclude small metro area core counties. This allows for a better identification of trends that emerged in the Q1 2022 data. Related ‹ Housing Starts Slow in MayTags: apartment buildings, COVID-19, HBGI, home building geography index, Metropolitan Statistical Area, multifamily construction, regional differences, rental properties, rental vacancy rate, suburban

Metro Areas Trail Lower Density Markets for Apartment Construction Growth2022-06-17T09:15:36-05:00

Metro Area Populations Exhibit Minimal Growth From 2020


The Census Bureau recently released its 2021 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) annual population estimates. Between 2020 and 2021, 251 (65%) of the 384 MSAs within the 50 states and the District of Columbia experienced population increases, albeit small on percentage terms. The MSAs’ combined total population increased from 286,195,308 in 2020 to 286,472,775 in 2021, approximately a 0.1% increase. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX posted the largest numerical gain in population of 97,290 residents, followed by Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ at 78,220. The largest percentage gains in population were experienced by St. George, UT Metro area and Coeur d’Alene, ID Metro area, growing by 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively. Nine out of the top ten metro areas that showed the highest population increases on percentage terms were almost evenly divided among Idaho, Florida, and Utah. Metro areas that lost the greatest number of residents between 2020 and 2021 were New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (-327,955) and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (-175,913), by -1.6% and -1.3%, respectively. The largest percentage decreases were experienced by Lake Charles, LA Metro Area at -5.2% and Odessa, TX Metro Area at -2.6%. The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area experienced a population decline of residents. The District of Columbia’s population decreased by 20,043 residents 2021, a 2.9% decline. In addition to providing each metro area’s population change from the previous year, the Census further breaks the metro-level change down into its four components: domestic migration, international migration, fertility, and mortality. Natural change (the difference between births and deaths), domestic migration and international migration all play important roles on population changes over time among different metro areas. In 2021, 213 (56%) of the 384 metro areas in the 50 states and District of Columbia experienced natural decrease, occurring when there are more deaths than births in a population over a given period. Sixty-three percent of metro areas had positive net domestic migration, while 92% of metro areas had positive net international migration. Between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021, i.e., the specific dates by which the populations were estimated, MSAs’ total number of births exceeded deaths by about 279,000, which is notable given that the pandemic was at its peak intensity at that time. The total population of all MSAs in 2020 increased by 1.09% from births, decreased by 0.99% from deaths, increased by 0.08% from international migration, and decreased by 0.08% from domestic migration. The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro area showed the highest number of births and deaths at 215,362 and 177,015, respectively. The contribution of births to MSAs’ individual population changes ranged from 0.3% to 2.1%. The contribution of deaths to MSAs’ individual population changes ranged 0.4% to 2.1%. For all MSAs combined, the Census estimated a net domestic outflow of 233,433 residents and a net international inflow of 231,980 residents. Individually, New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metro Areas had the largest net international migrations of 23,681 and 22,764, respectively. Meanwhile, the same MSA that showed the largest international net inflow, the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro area, and additionally, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro area experienced the largest domestic outflows of residents of 385,455 and 204,776, respectively. The distribution of percentage changes across all metro areas shows a high clustering of MSAs near zero. Per the data, 88% of all MSAs populations did not change by more than 1.25%. Possible future studies from the MSA-level population changes include examinations of various housing aspects in the areas, e.g., building activity, housing-related demographic attributes, homeownership, etc. Related ‹ March Gains in Private Residential Construction SpendingTags: birth rates, Census, census bureau, fertility rates, immigration, Metropolitan Statistical Area, population

Metro Area Populations Exhibit Minimal Growth From 20202022-05-03T09:19:38-05:00

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