Mortgage Activity Jumps after Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks

2024-03-07T08:16:54-06:00

Per the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) survey through the week ending March 1st, total mortgage activity increased 9.7% from the previous week, and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate fell two basis points to 7.02%. The 30-year FRM has risen 22 basis points over the past month as rates remain right around seven percent. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, rose by 9.7% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis from one week earlier after falling for three consecutive weeks. Both purchasing and refinancing activity rose, purchasing activity increased 10.6% and refinancing activity increased 8.1% week-over-week. Purchasing activity continued to be lower than a year ago, down 8.6% compared to the same week last year. Refinancing activity saw a moderate pickup as rates fell from October through the start of the year but slowed as activity for the week ending March 1st was 2.2% lower than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity fell from 31.2% to 30.2% over the week, while the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose from 7.5% to 7.7%. The average loan size for purchases was $442,500 at the start of March, up from $436,200 over the month of February. The average loan size for refinancing decreased from $260,300 in February to $252,700 in February. The average loan size for an ARM was up at the start of March to $955,300, while the average loan size for a FRM rose to $337,300. Since March of 2020, when the COVID-19 was first declared a nationwide emergency, refinance and purchase average loan sizes have diverged from each other. Both amounts were near $343,000 in March 2020. As of the latest release, the average purchase loan size has risen approximately $100,000 since 2020 while the average loan size for refinance has moved the opposite direction falling about $90,000 over the same period.

Mortgage Activity Jumps after Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks2024-03-07T08:16:54-06:00

Home Price Gains Continued in December

2024-02-27T12:16:32-06:00

National home prices continued to increase, hitting a new all-time high in December. Despite high mortgage rates, limited inventory and strong demand continued to push up home prices. Locally, six of 20 metro areas, experienced negative home price appreciation in December. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (HPI), reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 2.4% in December, slower than a 3.0% increase in November. It marks the fourth straight month of deceleration since September. Nonetheless, national home prices are now 70% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in March 2006. On a year-over-year basis (YOY), the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% increase in November. It was the highest year-over-year gain over the past twelve months. Home price appreciation slowed greatly over the past year; the average YOY home price gain for 2023 was 2.4%, after the double-digit gains seen in the previous two years. Home prices are stabilizing as more buyers and sellers enter the market. Meanwhile, the Home Price Index, released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2% in December, following a 4.3% increase in November. On a year-over-year basis, the FHFA Home Price NSA Index rose 6.5% in December, down from 6.6% in the previous month. In addition to tracking national home price changes, S&P Dow Jones Indices also reported home price indexes across 20 metro areas in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. While six out of 20 metro areas reported negative home price appreciation, 13 metro areas had positive home price appreciation. Home prices for Cleveland (OH) were unchanged from the previous month. Their annual growth rates ranged from -2.7% to 10.1%. Among all 20 metro areas, 10 metro areas exceeded the national average of 2.4%. Las Vegas led the way with a 10.1% increase, followed by Los Angeles with an 8.6% increase and Miami with an 8.0% increase. The six metro areas that experienced price declines are Portland (-2.7%), Minneapolis (-1.6%), San Francisco (-1.4%), San Diego (-1.3%), Detroit (-0.6%) and Dallas (-0.6%). The scatter plot below lists the 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas’ annual growth rates in November and in December 2023. The X-axis presents the annual growth rates in November; the Y-axis presents the annual growth rates in December. Seven out of the 20 metro areas, the dots above the blue line, had an acceleration in home price growth, while the remaining 13 metro areas, located below the blue line, experienced deceleration. ‹ New Home Sales Up at the Start of 2024Tags: FHFA Home Price Index, home prices, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Home Price Gains Continued in December2024-02-27T12:16:32-06:00

Homeownership is Key to Household Wealth

2024-02-21T10:15:31-06:00

Homeownership provides a wide range of benefits to households. In addition to providing households with a stable place to live, homeownership also offers an opportunity for households to accumulate assets and build wealth over time through equity. As of 2022, 66.1% of U.S. households owned their homes. For families that owned a home, the median net housing value (the value of a home minus home-secured debt) increased from $139,000 in 2019 to $201,000 in 2022, as home prices rose, and home mortgage debt was approximately flat1. In this article, we use the 2022 data from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to examine household balance sheets, especially their primary residence, across age and education categories. The 2022 SCF is a detailed triennial cross-sectional survey of U.S. family finances, published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Compared to the quarterly Financial Accounts of the United States (previously known as the Flow of Funds Accounts), which provides aggregate information on household balance sheets, the SCF provides family-level data2 about U.S. household balance sheets every three years since 1989. Homeownership plays an integral role in a household’s accumulation of wealth. According to the analysis of the 2022 SCF, nationally, the primary residence remained the largest asset category on the balance sheets of households in 2022 (as shown in Figure 1 above). At $40.9 trillion, the primary residence accounted for more than one quarter of all assets held by households in 2022, surpassing business interests (20%, $30.8 trillion), other financial assets3 (19%, $29.8 trillion) and retirement accounts (15%, $23.8 trillion). Playing an important role in household wealth accumulation, the primary residence not only represents the largest asset category on the household balance sheet, but also is a widely held category of nonfinancial assets by households. As mentioned earlier, about two out of every three households, 66%, owned a primary residence in 2022. Within the categories of financial assets, just over half of households, 54%, held retirement accounts, and 21% of households owned either stocks or bonds.  Other financial assets, which were held by 99% of households, include items such as checking accounts, money market accounts, and prepaid debit cards, which are often held more to facilitate financial transactions than to build wealth. In Figure 2, the bars represent the distribution of major assets on household balance sheets by age categories in 2022. The results shown in Figure 2 suggest that households generally accumulate more assets as they age. Total assets were $7.6 trillion for households under age 35, while they were $65.9 trillion for households aged 65 or older. The aggregate value of assets held by families where the head was aged 65 or older was approximately nine times larger than those held by families where the head was under age 35. The increases in the total assets among age groups indicate that the value of assets grows with age groups. Moreover, the distribution of major assets on household balance sheets varies by age group. Across age groups where households were under the age of 65, the aggregate value of the primary residence was the largest asset category on these households’ balance sheets. For households aged 65 or older, the primary residence became the second largest asset category, less than other financial assets. Although the aggregate value of the primary residence increases with age, partly reflecting higher homeownership rates across age categories, the aggregate value of the primary residence as a share of total assets declined with age, as shown in Figure 3. The decline in the share of total assets represented by the aggregate value of the primary residence was offset by growth in the share of other asset categories in aggregate, most notably stocks and bonds, other financial assets, and retirement accounts. An analysis of the SCF reveals that higher educational attainment is associated with higher value of asset holdings. The aggregate value of assets held by households with a bachelor’s degree or higher was five times higher than the aggregate value of assets held by those with some college or associate degrees. Notably, the primary residence remains the largest asset category for each educational attainment category. However, the aggregate value of the primary residence as a share of total assets varies by educational attainment categories. For households with a bachelor’s degree or higher, the aggregate value of the primary residence as a share of total assets was 23%, as these households held a greater amount of other assets, such as business interests, other financial assets, and retirement accounts. Meanwhile, for households with no high school diploma or GED, the primary residence accounted for half of their total assets. Note: 1 For details on changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022, see Aladangady, Aditya, Jesse Bricker, Andrew C. Chang, Sarena Goodman, Jacob Krimmel, Kevin B. Moore, Sarah Reber, Alice Henriques Volz, and Richard A. Windle (2023). Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2019 to 2022: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October, https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf. 2 According to the SCF, the term “families”, used in the SCF, is more comparable with the U.S. Census Bureau definition of “households” than with its use of “families”. More information can be found here: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf. 3 Other financial assets include loans from the household to someone else, future proceeds, royalties, futures, non-public stock, deferred compensation, oil/gas/mineral investments, and cash, not elsewhere classified. 4 Other residential real estate includes land contracts/notes household has made, properties other than the principal residence that are coded as 1-4 family residences, time shares, and vacation homes. 5 Other nonfinancial assets defined as total value of miscellaneous assets minus other financial assets. ‹ New Single-Family Home Size Moves LowerTags: asset, home mortgage, homeownership, household balance sheets, primary residence, primary residence equity, SCF, survey of consumer finances

Homeownership is Key to Household Wealth2024-02-21T10:15:31-06:00

Inflation Remains Sticky due to Persistent Housing Costs

2024-02-13T11:15:21-06:00

Consumer prices picked up again in January while core prices remained elevated, especially housing costs. Despite a slowdown in the year-over-year increase, shelter costs continue to put upward pressure on inflation, accounting for over two-thirds of the total increase in all items excluding food and energy. This hotter-than-expected report will almost certainly delay Fed rate cuts until the second half of the year. The Fed’s ability to address rising housing costs is limited because increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation. The Fed’s tools for promoting housing supply are constrained. In fact, further tightening of monetary policy would hurt housing supply because it would increase the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise despite Fed policy tightening. Nonetheless, the NAHB forecast expects to see shelter costs decline further in the coming months.  This is supported by real-time data from private data providers that indicate a cooling in rent growth. With respect to the aggregate data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2% in December. The price index for a broad set of energy sources fell by 0.9% in January as the decline in gasoline index (-3.3%) and fuel oil index (-4.5%) more than offset the increase in the natural gas index (+2.0%) and electricity index (+1.2%). Meanwhile, the food index and the food at home index both increased by 0.4% in January. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI rose by 0.4% in January, after rising 0.3% in December. In January, the index for shelter (+0.6%) continued to be the largest contributor to the monthly increase in the core CPI. Among other top contributors that rose in January include indexes for motor vehicle insurance (+1.4%) and medical care (+0.5%). Meanwhile, the top contributors that experienced a decline in January include indexes for used cars and trucks (-3.4%) and apparel (-0.7%). The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI. The index saw a 0.6% rise in January, following an increase of 0.4% in December. The indexes for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) increased by 0.6% and rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.4% over the month. These gains have been the largest contributors to headline inflation in recent months. During the past twelve months, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI rose by 3.1% in January, following a 3.4% increase in December. The “core” CPI increased by 3.9% over the past twelve months, the same increase for the 12-months ending December. This was the slowest annual gain since May 2021. Over the past twelve months, the food index rose by 2.7% while the energy index fell by 2.0%. NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than overall inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than overall inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components). The Real Rent Index was unchanged in January. ‹ Modest Improvements in Demand, Lending Conditions for Real Estate Loans During Q4 2023Tags: BLS, cpi, inflation

Inflation Remains Sticky due to Persistent Housing Costs2024-02-13T11:15:21-06:00

Job Growth Surges in January

2024-02-02T11:24:32-06:00

The U.S. economy entered the new year with a strong gain in payroll employment and an unchanged unemployment rate. Job gains in November and December were much stronger than initially estimated, according to revisions of the establishment survey data. January’s jobs report shows that the job market remains unexpectedly strong despite the impact of the highest interest rates in two decades. The estimates confirm that the Fed will not be in a rush to cut interest rates in March. Additionally, wage growth showed strength in January. On a year-over-year basis (YOY), wages grew 4.5% in January, stronger than an upwardly revised 4.3% in December but lower than the roughly 6% in the beginning of 2022. Wage growth is positive if matched by productivity growth. If not, it can be a sign of lingering inflation. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 353,000 in January, faster than the upwardly revised increase of 333,000 jobs in December, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. It was the biggest monthly gain in the past twelve months. The estimates for the previous two months were revised higher. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 9,000, from +173,000 to +182,000, while December was revised up by 117,000 from +216,000 to +333,000. Combined, the revisions were 126,000 higher than the original estimates. Despite restrictive monetary policy, about 6.8 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In January, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% for the third consecutive month. The number of unemployed persons and employed persons showed little change. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, was unchanged at 62.5%. Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people aged between 25 and 54 rose 0.1 percentage point to 83.3%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. January’s job gains were broad-based across sectors, led by professional and business services (+74,000), health care (+70,000), retail trade (+45,000), and social assistance (+30,000). Meanwhile, employment in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 5,000. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 11,000 in January, following an upwardly revised 24,000 gains in December. While residential construction added 2,700 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 7,600 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in January, broken down into 938,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 5,083 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 60,100 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,350,300 positions. In January, the unemployment rate for construction workers rose by 0.7 percentage points to 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ‹ Private Residential Construction Spending Grows for Third Straight MonthTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Job Growth Surges in January2024-02-02T11:24:32-06:00

U.S. Economy Ends 2023 With Surprisingly Strong Growth

2024-01-25T12:15:53-06:00

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong pace in the fourth quarter, mainly fueled by resilient consumer spending. However, the fourth quarter data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index rose 1.5% for the fourth quarter, down from a 3.3% increase in the third quarter. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which measures inflation (or deflation) across various consumer expenses and reflects changes in consumer behavior, rose 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from a 2.6% increase in the third quarter. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, following a 4.9% gain in the third quarter. It marks the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. This quarter’s growth was higher than NAHB’s forecast of a 0.9% increase. For the full year, real GDP increased 2.5% in 2023, up from a 1.9% increase in 2022, and slightly better than NAHB’s forecast of 2.4%. This quarter’s increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending, and private domestic investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased 1.9%. Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, rose at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter, reflecting increases in both services and goods. While expenditures on services increased 2.4% at an annual rate, goods spending increased 3.8% at an annual rate, led by other nondurable goods (+5.1%) and recreational goods and vehicles (+10.9%). Both federal government spending and state and local government spending increased in the fourth quarter. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected increases in compensation of state and local government employees and investment in structures, while the increase in federal government spending was led by nondefense spending. In the fourth quarter, exports rose 6.3%, reflecting increases in both goods and services. Nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.9% in the fourth quarter, following a 1.4% increase in the third quarter. The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products (2.1%), structures (3.2%), and equipment (1.0%). Additionally, residential fixed investment (RFI) rose 1.1% in the fourth quarter, down from a 6.7% increase in the third quarter. This is the second straight gain after nine consecutive quarters of declines. Within residential fixed investment, single-family structures rose 11.6% at an annual rate, multifamily structures declined 1.0%, and improvements rose 5.5%. ‹ New Home Sales Bounce Back in December on Lower Mortgage RatesHousing Share of GDP Inched up In the Fourth Quarter of 2023 ›Tags: economics, gdp, inflation, macroeconomics, macroeconomy, residential fixed investment

U.S. Economy Ends 2023 With Surprisingly Strong Growth2024-01-25T12:15:53-06:00

Employment Situation in December: State-Level Analysis

2024-01-23T12:24:22-06:00

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia in December compared to the previous month, while 11 states saw a decrease. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, following a gain of 173,000 jobs in November. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was most favorable in California, which added 23,400 jobs, followed by Texas (+19,100), and then Florida (+16,500). A total of 28,700 jobs were lost across thirteen states, with Virginia reporting the steepest job losses at 11,800.  In percentage terms, employment in Alaska increased the highest at 0.5%, while Vermont saw the biggest decline at 0.6% between November and December. Year-over-year ending in December, 2.7 million jobs have been added to the labor market. Except for Mississippi, all other states and the District of Columbia added jobs compared to a year ago. The range of job gains spanned from 1,400 jobs in Vermont to 369,600 jobs in Texas.  Conversely, Mississippi lost 7,800 jobs on a year-over-year basis. In percentage terms, Nevada reported the highest increase at 3.8%, while Mississippi showed the largest decrease at 0.7% compared to a year ago. Across the nation, construction sector jobs data[1]—which includes both residential and non-residential construction— showed that 32 states reported an increase in December compared to November, while 16 states and the District of Columbia lost construction sector jobs. The remaining two, Alaska and Indiana reported no change on a month-over-month basis. New Jersey, with the highest increase, added 3,800 construction jobs, while Ohio, on the other end of the spectrum, lost 4,100 jobs. Overall, the construction industry added a net 17,000 jobs in December compared to the previous month. In percentage terms, South Dakota reported the highest increase at 4.1% and the District of Columbia reported the largest decline at 1.9%. Year-over-year, construction sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 197,000, which is a 2.5% increase compared to the December 2022 level. Texas added 32,800 jobs, which was the largest gain of any state, while New York lost 15,600 construction sector jobs. In percentage terms, South Dakota had the highest annual growth rate in the construction sector at 20.8%. Over this period, New York reported the largest decline of 3.9%. [1] For this analysis, BLS combined employment totals for mining, logging, and construction are treated as construction employment for the District of Columbia, Delaware, and Hawaii. ‹ U.S. Population Growth Returns to Pre-Pandemic LevelsTags: construction labor, economics, state and local markets, state employment

Employment Situation in December: State-Level Analysis2024-01-23T12:24:22-06:00

Housing Costs Persist in Driving Inflation Higher

2024-01-11T11:17:00-06:00

Consumer prices rose again in December, driven by higher energy prices and sticky housing costs. Despite the increase, overall inflation has moderated by nearly half, declining from 6.5% in 2022 to 3.4% by the end of 2023. However, even after peaking in March 2023, shelter costs continue to put upward pressure on inflation, accounting for over two-thirds of the total increase in all items excluding food and energy. The Fed’s ability to address rising housing costs is limited because increases are driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs. Additional housing supply is the primary solution to tame housing inflation. The Fed’s tools for promoting housing supply are constrained. In fact, further tightening of monetary policy would hurt housing supply because it would increase the cost of AD&C financing. This can be seen on the graph below, as shelter costs continue to rise despite Fed policy tightening. Nonetheless, the NAHB forecast expects to see shelter costs decline further in the coming months.  This is supported by real-time data from private data providers that indicate a cooling in rent growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.1% in November. The price index for a broad set of energy sources rose by 0.4% in December as the increase in gasoline index (+0.2%) and electricity index (+1.3%) more than offset the decline in the natural gas index (-0.4%). Meanwhile, the food index increased by 0.2% in December with the food at home index rising 0.1%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the “core” CPI rose by 0.3% in December, as it did in November. In December, the index for shelter (+0.5%) was the largest contributor to the monthly increase in the core CPI. Among other top contributors that rose in December include indexes for medical care (+0.6%) and motor vehicle insurance (+1.5%). Meanwhile, the top contributors  that experienced a decline in December include indexes for  household furnishings and operations (-0.4%), and personal care (-0.3%). The index for shelter makes up more than 40% of the “core” CPI. The index saw a 0.5% rise in December, following an increase of 0.4% in November. The indexes for owners’ equivalent rent (OER) increased by 0.5% and rent of primary residence (RPR) increased by 0.4% over the month. Monthly increases in OER have averaged 0.5% over the past year. These gains have been the largest contributors to headline inflation in recent months. During the past twelve months, on a not seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI rose by 3.4% in December, following a 3.1% increase in November. The “core” CPI increased by 3.9% over the past twelve months, after rising 4.0% in November. This was the slowest annual gain since May 2021. Over the past twelve months, the food index rose by 2.7% while the energy index fell by 2.0%. NAHB constructs a “real” rent index to indicate whether inflation in rents is faster or slower than overall inflation. It provides insight into the supply and demand conditions for rental housing. When inflation in rents is rising faster than overall inflation, the real rent index rises and vice versa. The real rent index is calculated by dividing the price index for rent by the core CPI (to exclude the volatile food and energy components). The Real Rent Index rose by 0.1% in December. ‹ Modest Increase in Mortgage Activity to Start 2024Tags: BLS, inflation

Housing Costs Persist in Driving Inflation Higher2024-01-11T11:17:00-06:00

Residential Building Wages Continue to Increase

2024-01-08T10:15:54-06:00

By Jing Fu on January 8, 2024 • The year-over-year (YOY) growth rate for residential building worker wages decelerated to 0.6% in June 2023. Over the past five months, wage growth accelerated moderately and reached 4.0% in November. Overall, average hourly earnings for residential building workers* increased at a relatively slower pace in the past year, compared to the peak rate of 8% in October 2021. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, average hourly earnings (AHE) for residential building workers was $30.71 per hour in November 2023, increasing 4.0% from $29.52 per hour a year ago. This was 14.1% higher than the manufacturing’s average hourly earnings of $26.91 per hour, 8.9% higher than transportation and warehousing ($28.19 per hour), and 12.0% lower than mining and logging ($34.91 per hour). Wage growth has been below 4.0% in the past twelve months. November’s acceleration in wage growth reflects an imbalance in the construction labor market. Demand for construction labor remained strong. Indeed, the construction labor market moved in the opposite direction of the overall economy. As mentioned in the latest JOLTS blog, the number of open construction jobs rose to 459,000 in November, as the count of total job openings for the economy declined to 8.8 million. Note: * Data used in this post relate to production and nonsupervisory workers in the residential building industry. This group accounts for approximately two-thirds of the total employment of the residential building industry. ‹ Solid Job Growth in 2023Tags: average hourly earnings, labor market, residential building, wages

Residential Building Wages Continue to Increase2024-01-08T10:15:54-06:00

Solid Job Growth in 2023

2024-01-05T12:33:52-06:00

December’s jobs report concludes another solid year of job hiring in 2023. In December, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000, and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% for the second month. Job gains moderated in 2023 with an average 225,000 monthly employment growth but remained strong. In December, wage growth accelerated to a 4.1% year-over-year (YOY) growth rate, up from 4.0% in November and down 0.7 percentage points from a year ago. The total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 216,000 in December was followed by two previous months of revisions, as reported in the Employment Situation Summary. The monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 26,000, from +199,000 to +173,000, while October was revised down by 45,000 from +150,000 to +105,000. Combined, the revisions took the original estimates down by 71,000. Despite restrictive monetary policy, more than 6 million jobs have been created since March 2022, when the Fed enacted the first interest rate hike of this cycle. In 2023, 2.7 million jobs were created, and monthly employment growth averaged 225,000 per month, less than the average monthly growth of 399,000 in 2022 and 606,000 in 2021. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% in December as the labor force participation rate edged down. The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged, while the number of employed persons decreased by 683,000. The labor force participation rate, the proportion of the population either looking for a job or already holding a job, decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 62.5%, marking its lowest rate since February 2023. December’s decrease in the labor force participation rate reflects the decrease in the number of persons in the labor force (-676,000) and the increase in the number of persons not in the labor force (+845,000). Moreover, the labor force participation rate for people  aged between 25 and 54 edged down to 83.2%. While the overall labor force participation rate is still below its pre-pandemic levels at the beginning of 2020, the rate for people  aged between 25 and 54 exceeds the pre-pandemic level of 83.1%. The government (+52,000), health care (+38,000), social assistance (+21,000), and construction (+17,000) sectors led December’s job gains, while transportation and warehousing shed 23,000 jobs in December. Employment in the overall construction sector increased by 17,000 in December, following a 6,000 gain in November. While residential construction added 5,500 jobs, non-residential construction employment added 11,900 jobs for the month. Residential construction employment now stands at 3.3 million in December, broken down into 936,000 builders and 2.4 million residential specialty trade contractors. The 6-month moving average of job gains for residential construction was 4,000 a month. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers added 40,100 jobs on a net basis. Since the low point following the Great Recession, residential construction has gained 1,316,800 positions. In December, the unemployment rate for construction workers dropped by 1.2 percentage points to 4.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unemployment rate for construction workers remained at a relatively lower level, after reaching 14.2% in April 2020, due to the housing demand impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ‹ Employment Situation in November: State-Level AnalysisTags: employment, labor force, labor force participation rate, residential construction employment

Solid Job Growth in 20232024-01-05T12:33:52-06:00
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